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Chengdu J-20 5th Generation Aircraft News & Discussions

Where did they say the source is foreign media in that line? don't put your words into their mouth.
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The latest issue of ordnance industry science and tech told that there are more than 50 J-20 has already produced by CAC, and China will produce 200 to 300 J-20B that entered production this year.


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It also says according to foreigner media's analysis, eventually as many as 200-300 J-20Bs could be produced.
They never mention this year.

Indeed, please "don't put your words into their mouth"
 
This is unfortunate. Ordinance Science & Technology is usually a credible source ... I guess nothing is immune to Minnie Chan's toxic articles.
Like @IblinI also mentioned.
Most military related article in Chinese magazines are all like that: according to foreigner news blah blah... (except those history reviews of some old models).
They are not meant for leaking new info/progress.
They are for public science education and fun read for fans.
 
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And quoted from Breadbox, a 'new member' of the SDF:

"I read the article, they are 100% going off Minnie Chan, no questions asked, J20B+Vector Thrust. If you are following this thread, there isn’t anything there we don’t already know.
I can tell you for a fact that Sinodefence.com is more informed on J20 than anything else in the world."


Posters at PDF (esp. those who not frequent there) may have to grasp the deep imprinted psyche of the so-called professional forum of SDF while there are overwhelming their members who are also members here, both the known and clearly identifiable (use the same userIDs) and those who are surreptitious, be underground here (you never see their traces here but they clearly visit here regularly and even quoted info posted here at there). The materials of essences posted here are right immediately ported there within a fraction of time, mostly with the due credits but some merely ignored such courtesy, while the reverse actions are unfortunately less seen here, thus it's professional there yet here's a fan club, in their words.

It seems some "China Watchers" expect China to open its belly widely to the world through the direct words which are unmistakably understood, done from the position of catching up thus they forget to draw the wisdom of indirect interpretation from the various circulated information. Well, just live with that situation and ignore as necessary all the noises!
 
And quoted from Breadbox, a 'new member' of the SDF:

"I read the article, they are 100% going off Minnie Chan, no questions asked, J20B+Vector Thrust. If you are following this thread, there isn’t anything there we don’t already know.
I can tell you for a fact that Sinodefence.com is more informed on J20 than anything else in the world."


Posters at PDF (esp. those who not frequent there) may have to grasp the deep imprinted psyche of the so-called professional forum of SDF while there are overwhelming their members who are also members here, both the known and clearly identifiable (use the same userIDs) and those who are surreptitious, be underground here (you never see their traces here but they clearly visit here regularly and even quoted info posted here at there). The materials of essences posted here are right immediately ported there within a fraction of time, mostly with the due credits but some merely ignored such courtesy, while the reverse actions are unfortunately less seen here, thus it's professional there yet here's a fan club, in their words.

It seems some "China Watchers" expect China to open its belly widely to the world through the direct words which are unmistakably understood, done from the position of catching up thus they forget to draw the wisdom of indirect interpretation from the various circulated information. Well, just live with that situation and ignore as necessary all the noises!
There is a SDF poster I know for a fact steals pictures from LKJ86 without due credit (and has been for years). And yes you are correct ... there are quite a few members on SDF who have a feeling of superiority over everyone else. The fact of the matter is a lot of important developments are posted on PDF or other forums way before SDF; some of the material never even reaches SDF. The people who have this attitude rarely offer any deep insights anyway. Of course, this is not to say SDF is a bad forum or anything since there are still very knowledgeable posters there ... however as you mentioned the arrogant/snobbish attitude of some particular members is extremely annoying.
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It also says according to foreigner media's analysis, eventually as many as 200-300 J-20Bs could be produced.
They never mention this year.

Indeed, please "don't put your words into their mouth"
Dude 52051 never said 200 to 300 J-20Bs could be produced this year. His original statement was the following.

The latest issue of ordnance industry science and tech told that there are more than 50 J-20 has already produced by CAC, and China will produce 200 to 300 J-20B that entered production this year.

This means that China will produce 200 to 300 of the J-20Bs that entered production this year (which by all accounts is indeed true), not that it will produce 200 to 300 J-20s this specific year. There is a difference. But I agree the article relies too much on SCMP, which is unfortunate.
 
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The "foreign media" mentioned in Chinese media may often be referring to SDF and PDF, so the "news" is always some 2nd hand postings (on SDF and PDF) originally from Chinese media, and later on the Chinese media will refer to them as if sourced from foreign media.

Usually I won't read too much into such news. Just treat them as "may be true" news. Until we have seen semi-official or government related news media, just don't take them as confirmation. Not worth to waste our brain energy arguing who is wrong or right.

Smart China military watchers must know how to filter the news, but that can only be gained through experience. The truth always revealed itself after some time.
 
Smart China military watchers must know how to filter the news, but that can only be gained through experience. The truth always revealed itself after some time.
This is the problem though ... the PLAAF especially has significantly tightened censorship. We haven't seen a single Taihang equipped J-20 in operation despite them entering production in late 2018, nor have we seen a Y-20 equipped with WS-20 even though AVIC confirmed this to have occurred last year. And this is not to mention the only picture of the WS-15 is from a 2009 (not to mention the last specs we got dated back to 2012).
 
If I'm not mistaken no one on any website other than this magazine has ever said China will have 200-300 J-20B , so at least in regards to this bit of information it was not taken from "foreign media". meaning either this was a true insider information that they got or in the worst case scenario a pure guess.

And even if it was just a guess in any case the lower estimate they gave (200 fighters) is actually quite conservative so I thought the conservative/pessimistic members would welcome it, reaching the lower pessimistic estimate is actually quite easy, let us take the worst case scenario and say that Pupu's "60 fighters by the end of this year" is an exageration and assume it is actually 36 by end of 2020, if a new improved variant doesn't enter mass production earlier than 2025 that means for the next 4 years (starting from 2021) they will have to produce a total of at least 168 fighters (eg:- 24, 36, 48, 60 fighters per year in 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 respectively) to reach 204 fighters.

By the way regarding "professionals" in SDF & PDF, 99% of members on these forums (me included) are armchair generals, the only case in which a person is not an armchair general is if he actually served in the PLAN or PLAAF or has alternatively worked (or is working) on Chinese military aircrafts or in the shipbuilding industry (if it is information related to navy).
 
If I'm not mistaken no one on any website other than this magazine has ever said China will have 200-300 J-20B , so at least in regards to this bit of information it was not taken from "foreign media". meaning either this was a true insider information that they got or in the worst case scenario a pure guess.

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This magazine clearly stated: according to foreign media, more J-20B will be produced than the common type(J-20A), maybe 200-300 eventually.
Let's move on.
 
Oh man this is hilarious. I guess Minnie Chan does get taken seriously after all.

Actually it isn’t just Minnie but all supposedly foreign sources as well. David Ace also gets quoted with an air of authority on CJDBY.
 
J-20 is supposed to replace J-8. 500 planes should be the required number.

if we are talking about the J-20 in general and not just the J-20B variant, indeed the total number would probably be no less than 500 J-20 plus a minimum of 1500 J-31 (propably much higher) some of which would be for the navy's aircraft carriers, China currently has 1200 fighters, in general all countries are increasing their strength therefore China too will increase the size of it's airforce, furthermore 6th gen fighters of other countries will be entering service somewhere in the thirties or fourties meaning all of China's 4th gen fighters would have to be retired by the 2040s at the latest.
 
Oh man this is hilarious. I guess Minnie Chan does get taken seriously after all.

Actually it isn’t just Minnie but all supposedly foreign sources as well. David Ace also gets quoted with an air of authority on CJDBY.
So is the entire article worthless?
 
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J-20 is supposed to replace J-8. 500 planes should be the required number.


Since when the J-8? So far the only front-line unit operational replaced Su-30MKK and given the rumours with Anshan it is another Flanker unit.
 
So is the entire article worthless?
The excerpt about the WS-10 was quite insightful ... it didn't seem to be quoting any foreign sources there.
J-20 is supposed to replace J-8. 500 planes should be the required number.
No where near 500 J-20s until the WS-15 arrives. Peak J-20 production will not be hit with the current interim WS-10 engines.
 
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