Chengdu J-20 5th Generation Aircraft News & Discussions

[Figaro]

Production date is 2023 at the very earliest. Even the WS-20, which is far less complex than the WS-15, won't go into platform integration until 2018.

No. The maturity is by 2022-23. It will probably first be incorporated into the J-20 (similar to the WS-10A to J-11B) in 2018-2019.

 

[Akasa]

No. The maturity is by 2022-23. It will probably first be incorporated into the J-20 (similar to the WS-10A to J-11B) in 2018-2019.

Maturity takes additional years, if not decades, to bestow upon the WS-15. Even the WS-10 is not fully "mature", as implied by the lack of its use aboard the J-15 and J-10B/C.

It is possible that an early prototype might make an appearance on a flying Il-76 testbed in the next few years, but certainly not on a high-stakes platform like the J-20.

 

[Figaro]

Maturity takes additional years, if not decades, to bestow upon the WS-15. Even the WS-10 is not fully "mature", as implied by the lack of its use aboard the J-15 and J-10B/C.

It is possible that an early prototype might make an appearance on a flying Il-76 testbed in the next few years, but certainly not on a high-stakes platform like the J-20.

The fact that the WS-15 has completed ground tests and is being transferred to a Il-76 testbed is a good indication that the program is progressing well. We will probably see a J-20 with a WS-15 by 2019 (2020 at the latest). By 2023, the WS-15 will already be mostly "mature".

 

[Akasa]

The fact that the WS-15 has completed ground tests and is being transferred to a Il-76 testbed is a good indication that the program is progressing well. We will probably see a J-20 with a WS-15 by 2019 (2020 at the latest). By 2023, the WS-15 will already be mostly "mature".

Very unlikely; the WS-20 has been under flight tests for years now and it has yet to make an appearance on its intended platform: Y-20. We also don't know if the WS-15 has indeed wrapped up ground tests or if the prototype has achieved its thrust goals.

 

[Figaro]

Very unlikely; the WS-20 has been under flight tests for years now and it has yet to make an appearance on its intended platform: Y-20. We also don't know if the WS-15 has indeed wrapped up ground tests or if the prototype has achieved its thrust goals.

And the WS-15 has been under development for 20 years. Just look at the WS-10 history and you'll get a glimpse of how the WS-15 will shape out. It has only been 2 years since it went on an IL-76 testbed and it was China's first attempt at making a *powerful* high-bypass turbofan for a 66 ton strategic lifter.

 

[Deino]

J-20A 78272 - 126. Brigade

 

[Figaro]

Disappointed that it isn't a new J-20 LRIP, but a picture is better than no picture!

 

[Deino]

 

[Akasa]

And the WS-15 has been under development for 20 years. Just look at the WS-10 history and you'll get a glimpse of how the WS-15 will shape out. It has only been 2 years since it went on an IL-76 testbed and it was China's first attempt at making a *powerful* high-bypass turbofan for a 66 ton strategic lifter.

Development of the WS-15 has been nowhere as smooth as the WS-10 even if we are to take into account the much higher performance required of the WS-15. To go from ground testing to integration on a fighter platform in the time span of two years is essentially impossible, as it would take years for the engine to get clearance following testing aboard a specifically-designated testbed platform (in this case, the Il-76).

 

[Asoka]

"Like I said, You are almost famous in the "outer world" of non-PDF-supporters and indeed I re-posted Your claims (always without mentioning You by name) not to make You famous but to get a deeper understanding and an insight into Your claims .. "

Thanks for your considerations. I appreciate your efforts.

"However I must admit, none in any of these forums - You would say Western-infected forums - gave me a reason to follow Your claims. Even more none of them supports Your opinion. "

That is absolutely true, I am afraid. I can totally believe it. When a lie is told a thousands, it has became the "truth". When someone actually tell truth, he will not be believed.

People who believe J-20 is using the WS-15, is actually a very small minority, even in Chinese language Forums, except in one, where I got most my insights, http://bbs.meyet.com/forum-133-1.html. This blogger is definitely connected and authorized for leaks, otherwise, his website would have shutdown a long time ago.

But anyway IMO it is the way we can indeed come closer to the truth: Stay open minded also against "unique" opinions and claims in order to sort out, argue and come to an own conclusion.

When something is important, there will definitely many conflicting opinions, because people have different backgrounds and perspectives. Stay open minded is definitely a good idea.
Why am I doing this?

I am a proud Chinese, who lived in US since 1999, married to an American, and we have a 3 years old daughter, and expecting our second child, in any days now. My father-in-law is a German descendant, who is built like Arnold Schwarzenegger. I have choose to settle in US. I love American Revolutionary period History. I greatly admire the High Moral Ideals of the American Founding Father's generation, which was part of the European Enlightenment period, of course.

I lived with a Austrian for several years, and learned a lot about friendship from him. So I have a favorable impression of German. We, Chinese, believe the straight German can't tell a lie, despite what the Minister Goebbels had said.

Beside Aviation, I am also into Geopolitics. I believe a group of foreign and domestic evil forces has seized control of the US political process and both the Republican and Democratic party. This evil force is bending on starting WWIII, which will end in a Global Thermonuclear War.

I see the war clouds have been gathering between US and China and Russia, for several years now. There has been a lie that is spreading among ordinary people by the US mass medias, and thinktanks, (which are controlled by that evil force), that US military superiority over China and Russia is unassailable, a war against these two countries will be short and swift, and it will not go nuclear.

And there is a also lie spreading among US generals and admirals, that Chinese and Russia ICBMs are useless against US, because US have anti-ballistics missiles defense, and US could nuke China and Russia, without the fear they would get nuked also. And US would win the war.

China and Russia is doing its part to stop this lie by developing hypersonic glide missile, that could change it flight path, in mid air, rendering missiles defense, useless.

As for conventional weapons, we know, air superiority is the tip of the spear. And air superiority is achieved by winning the sky, with massive number of air superiority fighters like F-15, F-22, Su-27 Su-35, Su-57, and J-20. As the WWWII, and the Iraqi wars have demonstrated, wars are first won by winning air superiority.

And this supposed air superiority over China and Russia is what gives the US generals, the false confidence, that they could win a conventional war against those nuclear powers, easily and quickly. And that's why they have been eager to go along with the WWIII war plan.

But don't You rate Yourself then as a traitor? Telling the facts, "letting the truth out in other forums", exposing national secrets to opponents, isn't this the highest level of treason ??

Do we need to be worried ? Take care of You my most-favourite "opponent".


The prospect of 1000 J-20, with engine that has +210kN thrust, against, 185 F-22 with engine that has 160-180kN thrust, will certainly shatter the claim of US air superiority over China, and the presumption of a quick and easy victory.

If you ask me why am I doing this?

I am doing it for World Peace and Harmony. I am doing it for myself and for my family. I don't want to see a war between US and China (War for what reason, for God sake?)


But don't You rate Yourself then as a traitor?

No, of course not, I don't think I am hurting China.

The campaign of deception has ran its course. It was highly successful. The US is unlikely to re-open the F-22 production line, even if J-20 is using WS-15 with 210kN turns out to be true. But this would have great deterrence value, to let the truth out.

If WS-15 is already in service right now, but has only 160-180kN, this will not have great deterrence value. This would make J-20, only on par, with F-22. Not really earth shattering.

People have been expecting this number of 160-180kN for WS-15, we are just debating on the status of WS-15. Nothing to write home about, if this is true.

A powerful and already successful in service, WS-15 with +210kN and 3D TVC, will be shocking to the world, and force US revaluate its lies, and war plans.

China will not reveal the true Max. thrust of WS-15, of course, even if the service status was confirmed.

Remember, my estimate of 210kN is actually, the low end of my estimate. I am actually afraid to reveal, what's really in my mind. It is shocking even to me. China definitely has an ACE in its sleeve.

This truth that I am so insistent about, will be noticed by military intelligences and taken seriously, if some Journalist break the story, because the reasoning and analysis behind it, are solid. Any aviation professional will able to see the truth that is revealed in it.

Telling the facts, "letting the truth out in other forums", exposing national secrets to opponents, isn't this the highest level of treason ?

This is doing my patriotic duty, my German friend. I am doing this for China an US, and World Peace and Harmony.

Do we need to be worried ? Take care of You my most-favourite "opponent".

I live in US. I have more fear for US government, than Chinese government, for upsetting their war plans with China and Russia. But I am not revealing US secrets. They can't charge me for revealing Chinese secrets.

Thank you for you concern, my friend.I can see you have a warm heart. You wife must be a luck lady. We may meet some day, and have a beer , if the world haven't blown up by nuclear bombs, by then.

 

[Figaro]

Development of the WS-15 has been nowhere as smooth as the WS-10 even if we are to take into account the much higher performance required of the WS-15. To go from ground testing to integration on a fighter platform in the time span of two years is essentially impossible, as it would take years for the engine to get clearance following testing aboard a specifically-designated testbed platform (in this case, the Il-76).

I believe that there haven't been many problems with the WS-15 (the alleged core problem was solved). The Chinese had a very difficult time with the WS-10 because it was their first high performance turbofan that could rival other developed countries (at a time when the tech base of China was very primitive). Their WS-10 experience should factor in very nicely to the WS-15, especially considering the latter has been in development for 2 decades. Regarding testing, I meant from the IL-76 platform (which is to occur very soon) to the J-20 would take 2 to 3 years. Remember, technology is not a linear line but an exponential curve

I dug deeper into Asok's posts and found that he was indeed correct on one specific argument : how the J-20 did not engage afterburners during its performance at Zhuhai. If you look at multiple videos and angles of their debut, you'll notice that the J-20 did not need to turn on afterburners to perform the vertical climb and in particular its Chandelle maneuver, both of which were overlooked. This is not to say that Asok's WS-15 claims are true, but that the J-20's are indeed using powerful engines of most likely Russian origin (Deino's AL-31FM-2 theory). Unfortunately, this is where Asok's logical posts end, as he begins rambling on how the J-20 incorporates 3D vectoring.

"Like I said, You are almost famous in the "outer world" of non-PDF-supporters and indeed I re-posted Your claims (always without mentioning You by name) not to make You famous but to get a deeper understanding and an insight into Your claims .. "

Thanks for your considerations. I appreciate your efforts.

"However I must admit, none in any of these forums - You would say Western-infected forums - gave me a reason to follow Your claims. Even more none of them supports Your opinion. "

That is absolutely true, I am afraid. I can totally believe it. When a lie is told a thousands, it has became the "truth". When someone actually tell truth, he will not be believed.

People who believe J-20 is using the WS-15, is actually a very small minority, even in Chinese language Forums, except in one, where I got most my insights, http://bbs.meyet.com/forum-133-1.html. This blogger is definitely connected and authorized for leaks, otherwise, his website would have shutdown a long time ago.

But anyway IMO it is the way we can indeed come closer to the truth: Stay open minded also against "unique" opinions and claims in order to sort out, argue and come to an own conclusion.

When something is important, there will definitely many conflicting opinions, because people have different backgrounds and perspectives. Stay open minded is definitely a good idea.
Why am I doing this?

I am a proud Chinese, who lived in US since 1999, married to an American, and we have a 3 years old daughter, and expecting our second child, in any days now. My father-in-law is a German descendant, who is built like Arnold Schwarzenegger. I have choose to settle in US. I love American Revolutionary period History. I greatly admire the High Moral Ideals of the American Founding Father's generation, which was part of the European Enlightenment period, of course.

I lived with a Austrian for several years, and learned a lot about friendship from him. So I have a favorable impression of German. We, Chinese, believe the straight German can't tell a lie, despite what the Minister Goebbels had said.

Beside Aviation, I am also into Geopolitics. I believe a group of foreign and domestic evil forces has seized control of the US political process and both the Republican and Democratic party. This evil force is bending on starting WWIII, which will end in a Global Thermonuclear War.

I see the war clouds have been gathering between US and China and Russia, for several years now. There has been a lie that is spreading among ordinary people by the US mass medias, and thinktanks, (which are controlled by that evil force), that US military superiority over China and Russia is unassailable, a war against these two countries will be short and swift, and it will not go nuclear.

And there is a also lie spreading among US generals and admirals, that Chinese and Russia ICBMs are useless against US, because US have anti-ballistics missiles defense, and US could nuke China and Russia, without the fear they would get nuked also. And US would win the war.

China and Russia is doing its part to stop this lie by developing hypersonic glide missile, that could change it flight path, in mid air, rendering missiles defense, useless.

As for conventional weapons, we know, air superiority is the tip of the spear. And air superiority is achieved by winning the sky, with massive number of air superiority fighters like F-15, F-22, Su-27 Su-35, Su-57, and J-20. As the WWWII, and the Iraqi wars have demonstrated, wars are first won by winning air superiority.

And this supposed air superiority over China and Russia is what gives the US generals, the false confidence, that they could win a conventional war against those nuclear powers, easily and quickly. And that's why they have been eager to go along with the WWIII war plan.

But don't You rate Yourself then as a traitor? Telling the facts, "letting the truth out in other forums", exposing national secrets to opponents, isn't this the highest level of treason ??

Do we need to be worried ? Take care of You my most-favourite "opponent".


The prospect of 1000 J-20, with engine that has +210kN thrust, against, 185 F-22 with engine that has 160-180kN thrust, will certainly shatter the claim of US air superiority over China, and the presumption of a quick and easy victory.

If you ask me why am I doing this?

I am doing it for World Peace and Harmony. I am doing it for myself and for my family. I don't want to see a war between US and China (War for what reason, for God sake?)


But don't You rate Yourself then as a traitor?

No, of course not, I don't think I am hurting China.

The campaign of deception has ran its course. It was highly successful. The US is unlikely to re-open the F-22 production line, even if J-20 is using WS-15 with 210kN turns out to be true. But this would have great deterrence value, to let the truth out.

If WS-15 is already in service right now, but has only 160-180kN, this will not have great deterrence value. This would make J-20, only on par, with F-22. Not really earth shattering.

People have been expecting this number of 160-180kN for WS-15, we are just debating on the status of WS-15. Nothing to write home about, if this is true.

A powerful and already successful in service, WS-15 with +210kN and 3D TVC, will be shocking to the world, and force US revaluate its lies, and war plans.

China will not reveal the true Max. thrust of WS-15, of course, even if the service status was confirmed.

Remember, my estimate of 210kN is actually, the low end of my estimate. I am actually afraid to reveal, what's really in my mind. It is shocking even to me. China definitely has an ACE in its sleeve.

This truth that I am so insistent about, will be noticed by military intelligences and taken seriously, if some Journalist break the story, because the reasoning and analysis behind it, are solid. Any aviation professional will able to see the truth that is revealed in it.

Telling the facts, "letting the truth out in other forums", exposing national secrets to opponents, isn't this the highest level of treason ?

This is doing my patriotic duty, my German friend. I am doing this for China an US, and World Peace and Harmony.

Do we need to be worried ? Take care of You my most-favourite "opponent".

I live in US. I have more fear for US government, than Chinese government, for upsetting their war plans with China and Russia. But I am not revealing US secrets. They can't charge me for revealing Chinese secrets.

Thank you for you concern, my friend.I can see you have a warm heart. You wife must be a luck lady. We may meet some day, and have a beer , if the world haven't blown up by nuclear bombs, by then.

The first part of your post started out pretty good ... even if irrelevant to the J-20. But then you spew nonsense on the J-20. What makes you think that there will ever be 1000 J-20's? Do you realize that the PLAAF has a limited budget -- there are still hundreds of J-7's active -- and have no intention of bankrupting themselves. I'm not going to talk about the WS-15 as I have already made my thoughts loud and clear (you stand where you stand and I stand where I stand). And what do you mean when you talk about "world peace and harmony"? It's as if you're advocating for war between China and the United States because the J-20 is "way superior" to the F-22 in every aspect (what?!?) in a weird fashion. The US is never going to war with China or Russia; it knows what M.A.D is and does not want a nuclear winter.

I believe that there haven't been many problems with the WS-15 (the alleged core problem was solved). The Chinese had a very difficult time with the WS-10 because it was their first high performance turbofan that could rival other developed countries (at a time when the tech base of China was very primitive). Their WS-10 experience should factor in very nicely to the WS-15, especially considering the latter has been in development for 2 decades. Regarding testing, I meant from the IL-76 platform (which is to occur very soon) to the J-20 would take 2 to 3 years. Remember, technology is not a linear line but an exponential curve

I dug deeper into Asok's posts and found that he was indeed correct on one specific argument : how the J-20 did not engage afterburners during its performance at Zhuhai. If you look at multiple videos and angles of their debut, you'll notice that the J-20 did not need to turn on afterburners to perform the vertical climb and in particular its Chandelle maneuver, both of which were overlooked. This is not to say that Asok's WS-15 claims are true, but that the J-20's are indeed using powerful engines of most likely Russian origin (Deino's AL-31FM-2 theory). Unfortunately, this is where Asok's logical posts end, as he begins rambling on how the J-20 incorporates 3D vectoring.


The first part of your post started out pretty good ... even if irrelevant to the J-20. But then you spew nonsense on the J-20. What makes you think that there will ever be 1000 J-20's? Do you realize that the PLAAF has a limited budget -- there are still hundreds of J-7's active -- and have no intention of bankrupting themselves. I'm not going to talk about the WS-15 as I have already made my thoughts loud and clear (you stand where you stand and I stand where I stand). And what do you mean when you talk about "world peace and harmony"? It's as if you're advocating for war between China and the United States because the J-20 is "way superior" to the F-22 in every aspect (what?!?) in a weird fashion. The US is never going to war with China or Russia; it knows what M.A.D is and does not want a nuclear winter.

I just saw that Asok's estimate of 210 kN was "on the lower end"
Congrats with your second child btw

 

[Asoka]

I believe that there haven't been many problems with the WS-15 (the alleged core problem was solved). The Chinese had a very difficult time with the WS-10 because it was their first high performance turbofan that could rival other developed countries (at a time when the tech base of China was very primitive). Their WS-10 experience should factor in very nicely to the WS-15, especially considering the latter has been in development for 2 decades. Regarding testing, I meant from the IL-76 platform (which is to occur very soon) to the J-20 would take 2 to 3 years. Remember, technology is not a linear line but an exponential curve

I dug deeper into Asok's posts and found that he was indeed correct on one specific argument : how the J-20 did not engage afterburners during its performance at Zhuhai. If you look at multiple videos and angles of their debut, you'll notice that the J-20 did not need to turn on afterburners to perform the vertical climb and in particular its Chandelle maneuver, both of which were overlooked. This is not to say that Asok's WS-15 claims are true, but that the J-20's are indeed using powerful engines of most likely Russian origin (Deino's AL-31FM-2 theory). Unfortunately, this is where Asok's logical posts end, as he begins rambling on how the J-20 incorporates 3D vectoring.


The first part of your post started out pretty good ... even if irrelevant to the J-20. But then you spew nonsense on the J-20. What makes you think that there will ever be 1000 J-20's? Do you realize that the PLAAF has a limited budget -- there are still hundreds of J-7's active -- and have no intention of bankrupting themselves. I'm not going to talk about the WS-15 as I have already made my thoughts loud and clear (you stand where you stand and I stand where I stand). And what do you mean when you talk about "world peace and harmony"? It's as if you're advocating for war between China and the United States because the J-20 is "way superior" to the F-22 in every aspect (what?!?) in a weird fashion. The US is never going to war with China or Russia; it knows what M.A.D is and does not want a nuclear winter.



I just saw that Asok's estimate of 210 kN was "on the lower end"
Congrats with your second child btw

I have posted a lot on WS-15 and J-20 in this thread. If you go to my profile, by clicking on my name, and click on "Postings", if you see a list of all my previous postings. And see what are my reasonings and proofs behind my conclusions.

"I just t saw that Asok's estimate of 210 kN was "on the lower end" "

I understand your shocking reaction. You are not alone. Many people have reacted with the same disbelief and wall ramming with their heads. Don't bang your head too hard, please.

"This is not to say that Asok's WS-15 claims are true, but that the J-20's are indeed using powerful engines of most likely Russian origin (Deino's AL-31FM-2 theory). "

I have debunked Deino's AM-31-FM-M2 theory, by pointing out, that the Russian announced the intended development of this engine on Sep of 2012, a full 18 months, after the first flight of J-20. Unless the Chinese had time travelled into the future, and stole this engine, brought it back to 2010. They would not have access to this engine.

And there has been no announcements, of sales and delivery of this AL-31-FM-M2 to China, in the last 6 years.

None whatsoever!

"What makes you think that there will ever be 1000 J-20's? Do you realize that the PLAAF has a limited budget."

I believe PLAAF will have 500-1000 J-20, in the next 10-20 years, not immediately or in the short term. 50 per years will take 10 years to build 500. How many J-20 will the PLAAF will end up having, is entirely depended on the geo-political climate.

If the relationship and trust between US and China are greatly improved in the next few years. China might not even need 500.

The USAF's plan was to have 800 F-22, but got whittled down to 187, mostly because of budget pressure and the intelligence estimate that China will have not J-20 before 2020, and only a few by 2025.

"PLAAF has a limited budget."

But aren't you are the one, who debated with me, that China's GDP in PPP per capita, right now is
14400.90? And by this measure, China' GDP is over 23.2 Trillions, instead of $10 trillions, the largest in the world.

And by this measure World Bank have estimated that China will have a GDP of $40 trillions by 2030.

The cost of 50 J-20s per year, at $150 millions a piece, will be $7.5 billions per year.

You don't think China, will have enough money, to pay for 500 J-20s, in the next 10 years?

"And what do you mean when you talk about "world peace and harmony"? It's as if you're advocating for war between China and the United States because the J-20 is "way superior" to the F-22 in every aspect (what?!?) in a weird fashion."

"It's as if you're advocating for war between China and the United States"

Oh boy, where do you get this idea from? I am advocating that US will be less likely to start a conventional war with China, if it knows J-20 is far superior to F-22, esp. in engine thrust, and have far greater numbers of J-20.

"The US is never going to war with China or Russia;"

By this statement, I know you are not one of those crazy one. Thanks for being sane, Bro. Normal, not dumbed down people is harder and harder to find, these days.

US is pushing for war with BOTH China and Russia. (This is Mad, I know. But Washington DC is filled with crazy neolibs and neocons, who wants perpetual wars, with the rest of the world, including China and Russia. I know because I have lived in Maryland for 18 years.)

US will never go to (conventional) war China or Russia, if it know it doesn't have air superiority, anymore. True. I agreed.

"it knows what M.A.D is, and does not want a nuclear winter."

US think, it is invulnerable to China and Russia's ICBMs, because it has deployed anti-missiles defense, THAAD, right on China and Russia's door steps.

Congrats with your second child btw"

Thanks Bro, may God bless you, too.

 

[Figaro]

I have posted a lot on WS-15 and J-20 in this thread. If you go to my profile, by clicking on my name, and click on "Postings", if you see a list of all my previous postings. And see what are my reasonings and proofs behind my conclusions.

"I just t saw that Asok's estimate of 210 kN was "on the lower end" "

I understand your shocking reaction. You are not alone. Many people have reacted with the same disbelief and wall ramming with their heads. Don't bang your head too hard, please.

"This is not to say that Asok's WS-15 claims are true, but that the J-20's are indeed using powerful engines of most likely Russian origin (Deino's AL-31FM-2 theory). "

I have debunked Deino's AM-31-FM-M2 theory, by pointing out, that the Russian announced the intended development of this engine on Sep of 2012, a full 18 months, after the first flight of J-20. Unless the Chinese had time travelled into the future, and stole this engine, brought it back to 2010. They would not have access to this engine.

And there has been no announcements, of sales and delivery of this AL-31-FM-M2 to China, in the last 6 years.

None whatsoever!

"What makes you think that there will ever be 1000 J-20's? Do you realize that the PLAAF has a limited budget."

I believe PLAAF will have 500-1000 J-20, in the next 10-20 years, not immediately or in the short term. 50 per years will take 10 years to build 500. How many J-20 will the PLAAF will end up having, is entirely depended on the geo-political climate.

If the relationship and trust between US and China are greatly improved in the next few years. China might not even need 500.

The USAF's plan was to have 800 F-22, but got whittled down to 187, mostly because of budget pressure and the intelligence estimate that China will have not J-20 before 2020, and only a few by 2025.

"PLAAF has a limited budget."

But aren't you are the one, who debated with me, that China's GDP in PPP per capita, right now is
14400.90? And by this measure, China' GDP is over 23.2 Trillions, instead of $10 trillions, the largest in the world.

And by this measure World Bank have estimated that China will have a GDP of $40 trillions by 2030.

The cost of 50 J-20s per year, at $150 millions a piece, will be $7.5 billions per year.

You don't think China, will have enough money, to pay for 500 J-20s, in the next 10 years?

View attachment 420483

"And what do you mean when you talk about "world peace and harmony"? It's as if you're advocating for war between China and the United States because the J-20 is "way superior" to the F-22 in every aspect (what?!?) in a weird fashion."

"It's as if you're advocating for war between China and the United States"

Oh boy, where do you get this idea from? I am advocating that US will be less likely to start a conventional war with China, if it knows J-20 is far superior to F-22, esp. in engine thrust, and have far greater numbers of J-20.

"The US is never going to war with China or Russia;"

US is pushing for war with BOTH China and Russia. (This is Mad, I know. But Washington DC is filled with crazy neolibs and neocons, who wants perpetual wars, with the rest of the world, including China and Russia. I know because I have lived in Maryland for 18 years.)

US will never go to (conventional) war China or Russia, if it know it doesn't have air superiority, anymore. True. I agreed.

"it knows what M.A.D is, and does not want a nuclear winter."

US think, it is invulnerable to China and Russia's ICBMs, because it has deployed anti-missiles defense, THAAD, right on China and Russia's door steps.

I have debunked Deino's AM-31-FM-M2 theory, by pointing out, that the Russian announced the intended development of this engine on Sep of 2012, a full 18 months, after the first flight of J-20. Unless the Chinese had time travelled into the future, and stole this engine, brought it back to 2010. They would not have access to this engine.

This is not called debunking; Deino specifically stated that the initial prototypes came out with AL-31F's in 2012 and later received engine upgrades (LRIP included).

But aren't you are the one, who debated with me, that China's GDP in PPP per capita, right now is
14400.90? And by this measure, China' GDP is over 23.2 Trillions, instead of $10 trillions, the largest in the world.

You're beating a straw-man here; China has a set military budget and varies in accordance with their economy. China simply cannot afford 1000 J-20's given its military budget which is less than 1/3 of the United States. If one were to base it on pure GDP alone, then the US could also afford 1000 F-22s which obviously is not the case.

US think, it is invulnerable to China and Russia's ICBMs, because it has deployed anti-missiles defense, THAAD, right on China and Russia's door steps

Do you really think that American military planners are that arrogant and ignorant about China's nuclear deterrence? In the event of a nuclear war, China could very easily jam THAAD's radar and destroy the batteries via surgical strike. And also, the THAAD is not intended to shoot down Chinese ICBM's crossing the polar trajectory (the name's TERMINAL). If the US is so "invulnerable", surely it would have started war with China already?

 

[Asoka]

"Do you really think that American military planners are that arrogant and ignorant "
I really afraid so. I am praying that I am wrong.

1.) I really think US pushing for war with China and Russian because it think it will win.

2.) And I think any war, between nuclear powers, will quickly goes nuclear.

3.) And I believe US don't mind that, because it has deployed THAAD on China and Russia's door step.

4.) And I believe the Pentagon really believe THAAD could stop the ICBMs.

"If the US is so "invulnerable", surely it would have started war with China already?"

Those CIA and Pentagon crazes are working hard at it. The war is not yet happening right now, its purely because China and Russia are working together to stop them.

 

[Ultima Thule]

"Like I said, You are almost famous in the "outer world" of non-PDF-supporters and indeed I re-posted Your claims (always without mentioning You by name) not to make You famous but to get a deeper understanding and an insight into Your claims .. "

Thanks for your considerations. I appreciate your efforts.

"However I must admit, none in any of these forums - You would say Western-infected forums - gave me a reason to follow Your claims. Even more none of them supports Your opinion. "

That is absolutely true, I am afraid. I can totally believe it. When a lie is told a thousands, it has became the "truth". When someone actually tell truth, he will not be believed.

People who believe J-20 is using the WS-15, is actually a very small minority, even in Chinese language Forums, except in one, where I got most my insights, http://bbs.meyet.com/forum-133-1.html. This blogger is definitely connected and authorized for leaks, otherwise, his website would have shutdown a long time ago.

But anyway IMO it is the way we can indeed come closer to the truth: Stay open minded also against "unique" opinions and claims in order to sort out, argue and come to an own conclusion.

When something is important, there will definitely many conflicting opinions, because people have different backgrounds and perspectives. Stay open minded is definitely a good idea.
Why am I doing this?

I am a proud Chinese, who lived in US since 1999, married to an American, and we have a 3 years old daughter, and expecting our second child, in any days now. My father-in-law is a German descendant, who is built like Arnold Schwarzenegger. I have choose to settle in US. I love American Revolutionary period History. I greatly admire the High Moral Ideals of the American Founding Father's generation, which was part of the European Enlightenment period, of course.

I lived with a Austrian for several years, and learned a lot about friendship from him. So I have a favorable impression of German. We, Chinese, believe the straight German can't tell a lie, despite what the Minister Goebbels had said.

Beside Aviation, I am also into Geopolitics. I believe a group of foreign and domestic evil forces has seized control of the US political process and both the Republican and Democratic party. This evil force is bending on starting WWIII, which will end in a Global Thermonuclear War.

I see the war clouds have been gathering between US and China and Russia, for several years now. There has been a lie that is spreading among ordinary people by the US mass medias, and thinktanks, (which are controlled by that evil force), that US military superiority over China and Russia is unassailable, a war against these two countries will be short and swift, and it will not go nuclear.

And there is a also lie spreading among US generals and admirals, that Chinese and Russia ICBMs are useless against US, because US have anti-ballistics missiles defense, and US could nuke China and Russia, without the fear they would get nuked also. And US would win the war.

China and Russia is doing its part to stop this lie by developing hypersonic glide missile, that could change it flight path, in mid air, rendering missiles defense, useless.

As for conventional weapons, we know, air superiority is the tip of the spear. And air superiority is achieved by winning the sky, with massive number of air superiority fighters like F-15, F-22, Su-27 Su-35, Su-57, and J-20. As the WWWII, and the Iraqi wars have demonstrated, wars are first won by winning air superiority.

And this supposed air superiority over China and Russia is what gives the US generals, the false confidence, that they could win a conventional war against those nuclear powers, easily and quickly. And that's why they have been eager to go along with the WWIII war plan.

But don't You rate Yourself then as a traitor? Telling the facts, "letting the truth out in other forums", exposing national secrets to opponents, isn't this the highest level of treason ??

Do we need to be worried ? Take care of You my most-favourite "opponent".


The prospect of 1000 J-20, with engine that has +210kN thrust, against, 185 F-22 with engine that has 160-180kN thrust, will certainly shatter the claim of US air superiority over China, and the presumption of a quick and easy victory.

If you ask me why am I doing this?

I am doing it for World Peace and Harmony. I am doing it for myself and for my family. I don't want to see a war between US and China (War for what reason, for God sake?)


But don't You rate Yourself then as a traitor?

No, of course not, I don't think I am hurting China.

The campaign of deception has ran its course. It was highly successful. The US is unlikely to re-open the F-22 production line, even if J-20 is using WS-15 with 210kN turns out to be true. But this would have great deterrence value, to let the truth out.

If WS-15 is already in service right now, but has only 160-180kN, this will not have great deterrence value. This would make J-20, only on par, with F-22. Not really earth shattering.

People have been expecting this number of 160-180kN for WS-15, we are just debating on the status of WS-15. Nothing to write home about, if this is true.

A powerful and already successful in service, WS-15 with +210kN and 3D TVC, will be shocking to the world, and force US revaluate its lies, and war plans.

China will not reveal the true Max. thrust of WS-15, of course, even if the service status was confirmed.

Remember, my estimate of 210kN is actually, the low end of my estimate. I am actually afraid to reveal, what's really in my mind. It is shocking even to me. China definitely has an ACE in its sleeve.

This truth that I am so insistent about, will be noticed by military intelligences and taken seriously, if some Journalist break the story, because the reasoning and analysis behind it, are solid. Any aviation professional will able to see the truth that is revealed in it.

Telling the facts, "letting the truth out in other forums", exposing national secrets to opponents, isn't this the highest level of treason ?

This is doing my patriotic duty, my German friend. I am doing this for China an US, and World Peace and Harmony.

Do we need to be worried ? Take care of You my most-favourite "opponent".

I live in US. I have more fear for US government, than Chinese government, for upsetting their war plans with China and Russia. But I am not revealing US secrets. They can't charge me for revealing Chinese secrets.

Thank you for you concern, my friend.I can see you have a warm heart. You wife must be a luck lady. We may meet some day, and have a beer , if the world haven't blown up by nuclear bombs, by then.

too much speculations with no prove, how can you prove that your Blogger bring inside news from PLAAF and not bring rumors?

I have debunked Deino's AM-31-FM-M2 theory, by pointing out, that the Russian announced the intended development of this engine on Sep of 2012, a full 18 months, after the first flight of J-20. Unless the Chinese had time travelled into the future, and stole this engine, brought it back to 2010. They would not have access to this engine.

This is not called debunking; Deino specifically stated that the initial prototypes came out with AL-31F's in 2012 and later received engine upgrades (LRIP included).

But aren't you are the one, who debated with me, that China's GDP in PPP per capita, right now is
14400.90? And by this measure, China' GDP is over 23.2 Trillions, instead of $10 trillions, the largest in the world.

You're beating a straw-man here; China has a set military budget and varies in accordance with their economy. China simply cannot afford 1000 J-20's given its military budget which is less than 1/3 of the United States. If one were to base it on pure GDP alone, then the US could also afford 1000 F-22s which obviously is not the case.

US think, it is invulnerable to China and Russia's ICBMs, because it has deployed anti-missiles defense, THAAD, right on China and Russia's door steps

Do you really think that American military planners are that arrogant and ignorant about China's nuclear deterrence? In the event of a nuclear war, China could very easily jam THAAD's radar and destroy the batteries via surgical strike. And also, the THAAD is not intended to shoot down Chinese ICBM's crossing the polar trajectory (the name's TERMINAL). If the US is so "invulnerable", surely it would have started war with China already?

ignore @Asok bro he is a problem child here on PDF