Centre scraps $20 billion MMRCA deal for 126 Rafale jets for IAF, LCA Tejas to replace MiG-21

[Abingdonboy]

@Guynextdoor2 @Bang Galore @Gabriel92

Aside from the 36 figure any other figure will depend on talks being held with the French govt as we speak and will be subject to a govt-govt agreement. No figures have been announced either way and are subject to finding agreeable terms with the French govt now (crucially Dassualt are not calling the shots anymore).

Basically the GoI is hedging their bets and admitting they want the Rafale and would like local production but only if they find common ground so let's see what the two sides can work out. Now this is out of the bureaucrats' hands (on the Indian side) so the chances of seeing some good progress are strong. 126 Rafales may still be bought or even more- it is just about extracting good terms from the French side and as this is being overseen by the political leaders on both sides this is looking plausible.

 

[Luca1]

I don't give a f00k. The clowns were staking their claims for permanent membership in UNSC but can't close a freaking 20bn dollar deal.. Goes to show how much they deserve it.

True. And all the Indians will call you a troll and a Pakistani or Chinese.

From my day1 in PDF onwards ,I am against this costly bird.I am favouring su34 now & then.regarding tejas its not bad either.

Lol. And you only been in PDF for a month. It's was easy to be against this lingering deal a month ago. If you were 3-5 years ago, your opinion would be more credible.

 

[munchkin]

The 36 Rafales 2 squadrons will replace aging Mirage 2000s. Tejas will replace MiG-21s.

 

[MilSpec]

@Guynextdoor2 @Bang Galore @Gabriel92

Aside from the 36 figure any other figure will depend on talks being held with the French govt as we speak and will be subject to a govt-govt agreement. No figures have been announced either way and are subject to finding agreeable terms with the French govt now (crucially Dassualt are not calling the shots anymore).

Basically the GoI is hedging their bets and admitting they want the Rafale and would like local production but only if they find common ground so let's see what the two sides can work out. Now this is out of the bureaucrats' hands (on the Indian side) so the chances of seeing some good progress are strong. 126 Rafales may still be bought or even more- it is just about extracting good terms from the French side and as this is being overseen by the political leaders on both sides this is looking plausible.

It's ok if cancelled, we will be in real trouble if Pakfa turns out to be gomer.

The 36 Rafales 2 squadrons will replace aging Mirage 2000s. Tejas will replace MiG-21s.

Nopes, Mirage's are just going through their Midlife refit, they will stay for another 15-20 years.

What a joke !

What's the Joke? The project did not fit our feasibility anymore, thus we decided not to get it. Capex projects are cancelled all the time, i am pretty sure you find such projects which were either curtailed or cancelled in US Seneate hearings for DoD all the time, despite US being the richest and strongest country in the world, We on the other hand are a developing nation and have to be very sensitive about our investments and subsequent bilateral relations as we do not have engineering capabilities of the developed nations.

Just because we could not afford something in our budgetary allocation doesn't make us any lesser of human beings to be refereed to as joke, I am sure you don't go on calling every other person in your neighborhood a "joke" because they could not afford a fancy car.

 

[Abingdonboy]

It's ok if cancelled, we will be in real trouble if Pakfa turns out to be gomer.

Indeed but that is the thing- the Rafale will hedge against the FGFA taking longer to deliver than originally thought. More MKIs are not too viable for that given their high operating cost and relatively low availability rates and the LCA (even the Mk.2) is obviously not enough to plug any such capability gap until the FGFA comes online. That's why the Rafale is now being referred to as a "strategic purchase" and being pursued through govt-govt agreements.

36 Rafales are confirmed, the rest are under negotiations the French Govt aren't Dassualt they will make sure some agreeable terms are found and more Rafales are sold to India (getting more exports for the Rafale are in the French nation's interest also and will thus be able to look at the bigger picture where Dassualt has been stubbornly focused on their profit margins).

Things are actually looking up now....

The 36 Rafales 2 squadrons will replace aging Mirage 2000s. Tejas will replace MiG-21s.

Not Mirage 2000s, they have just been upgraded, the Rafales will be replacing the MiG-27s and Jaguars (those not upgraded)

 

[MilSpec]

Indeed but that is the thing- the Rafale will hedge against the FGFA taking longer to deliver than originally thought. More MKIs are not too viable for that given their high operating cost and relatively low availability rates and the LCA (even the Mk.2) is obviously not enough to plug any such capability gap until the FGFA comes online. That's why the Rafale is now being referred to as a "strategic purchase" and being pursued through govt-govt agreements.

36 Rafales are confirmed, the rest are under negotiations the French Govt aren't Dassualt they will make sure some agreeable terms are found and more Rafales are sold to India (getting more exports for the Rafale are in the French nation's interest also and will thus be able to look at the bigger picture where Dassualt has been stubbornly focused on their profit margins).

Things are actually looking up now....


Not Mirage 2000s, they have just been upgraded, the Rafales will be replacing the MiG-27s and Jaguars (those not upgraded)

I dont buy the service rate of MKI...It's very much like Takt time calculated in a production line, Even if the fuel truck was not available, or something else was on the runway, it's counted against the service rate. Some of the service rate is lost in semantics and needs to be looked at closer.

 

[Hulk]

36 is just a starting number, it might be increased. I think because the current deal became messy they have placed an interim order until a full deal is decided. There is time needed to start the deal again, but at the same time we cannot wait anymore. I think they did 36 now because they know that if they place follow-up order even after 1.5 years the net timeline might not change. I do not think the rest will be full LCA. However, it is fully possible that the number might not be 126 in total. I think they are putting pressure on France to come with a better deal or have a reduced number.

 

[Abingdonboy]

I dont buy the service rate of MKI...It's very much like Takt time calculated in a production line, Even if the fuel truck was not available, or something else was on the runway, it's counted against the service rate. Some of the service rate is lost in semantics and needs to be looked at closer.

A fair point but there is no doubt the Rafale (or any Western designed aircraft) is considerably easier to maintain and service than Russian products- this is just how it has always been.

 

[Corsair]

Depends on which type of Radar is in question.

Terrain maps are important for low level flights, which IAF is moving away with High Altitude PGM delivery modes, on all it's platforms, along with Litening III pods,

Low Level terrain flying mode is no longer a very effective method to penetrate enemy radar system, With Shorad systems net centric Awacs, low flying objects are easy to mitigate in this day and age.

Nonsense ; an aircraft performing terrain following attacks will be way harder to track and intercept than an aircraft flying at high altitude. SHORAD have little chances to have a shot on such an aircraft (Rafale is capable of automatic terrain following at 600 knots and 200 feet maximum), especially in a hilly terrain, considering their reaction time and aircraft's countermeasures.

Terrain following is still a relevant method against SAM and EW saturated airspace, it has been proven so by the French Air Force during many exercises, including Red Flag.

 

[MilSpec]

Nonsense ; an aircraft performing terrain following attacks will be way harder to track and intercept than an aircraft flying at high altitude. SHORAD have little chances to have a shot on such an aircraft (Rafale is capable of automatic terrain following at 600 knots and 200 feet maximum), especially in a hilly terrain, considering their reaction time and aircraft's countermeasures.

Terrain following is still a relevant method against SAM and EW saturated airspace, it has been proven so by the French Air Force during many exercises, including Red Flag.

IAF is moving away from Low flight patterns, Most TFR assisted flights are prone to ballooning making them susceptible to ground fire, especially with look down capabilities from enemy awacs tracking has become easier than before, although rafale does have a AESA advantage that doesn't paint a big buslls-eye on it's radar signature at low flights. .

 

[Providence]

What's the Joke? The project did not fit our feasibility anymore, thus we decided not to get it. Capex projects are cancelled all the time, i am pretty sure you find such projects which were either curtailed or cancelled in US Seneate hearings for DoD all the time, despite US being the richest and strongest country in the world, We on the other hand are a developing nation and have to be very sensitive about our investments and subsequent bilateral relations as we do not have engineering capabilities of the developed nations.

Just because we could not afford something in our budgetary allocation doesn't make us any lesser of human beings to be refereed to as joke, I am sure you don't go on calling every other person in your neighborhood a "joke" because they could not afford a fancy car.

Ofc capex projects goes through multiple rounds of review and approvals. Joke was on the project management team which in this case happens to be govt. who took 12 years to decide that the project is not suitable. Even if the time line is ruled out, how can u explain the lengthy process which the air-force had to go through ? The sheer man hours (resources ) wasted for over a decade ?

And why did the project got cancelled after selection of L1 or L2 vendor ? That too after 5 years of selection ?

 

[sancho]

Just a wild thought, but could it be that government would keep buying Rafales in batches of 2-3 squadrons till say FGFA comes into picture with LCA Mk 2. this way they will not have committed to any specific number, controlled capital budget spending, created a buffer against delay of both FGFA and LCA Mk 2 and not the least kept an option in hand for F3R.

There is no relation between LCA, FGFA and Rafale, since they all are meant for different roles and capabilities and if the Government wanted just a gap filler, they would had done what Parrikar said, got more MKIs directly from Russia, since that is the fastest alternative, already in production on 2 lines in Russia, fully operational in IAF so no issues with induction... The simple fact that we chose to add the follow order of 42 x MKIs to HALs production line, rather than choosing the fast way over IRKUT, makes clear that adding fighters just for the numbers on paper was never the issue.

F3R had no importance for India, since we wanted a custom version and we don't benefit from the NATO specific upgrades. The few things that would be interesting, can easily be upgraded, just as the current Rafale version is the F3.3, which includes upgrades on radar and avionics that we didn't evaluated in the trials. But if we don't go for the larger order, Dassault will make customizations like Litening integration, IRST or HMS very expensive, if they allow it at all, since they benefit more from us buying the new Thales LDP, or the HMS they want to integrate...
It's just a bad situation now, with going forward or backward getting us in trouble and our reputation in the world is now gone down the toilet.

As delicious as it may sound, don't think EFT will now come into picture. BTW would be quite a fantasy to have 6 squadrons each of EFT and Rafale in IAF colors.

No, by announcing the intent to buy Rafale whatsoever, the EF and the MKI are out as alternatives, which as well show how silly this announcement was. The only way to put pressure on Dassault was the risk to reject it and go for an alternative. Now they know it will be Rafale and they can wait to get the deal under the right terms for them.

 

[Skull and Bones]

The 36 Rafales 2 squadrons will replace aging Mirage 2000s. Tejas will replace MiG-21s.

Mirages will serve one and a half decade more.

 

[Providence]

..
No.. Actually we NEEDED it as an operational necessity.. Hence we went for it in a G2G route.. The RFP route was very tedious and still called for further negotiations..
Also, its price was coming out to to momentous.. India could do better to put that money developing a 5th gen fighter with the Russians than simply take a French TOT.. That too when they were least ready..

SO ? Go for more rafales through G-2-G route. Joke was on the project management team.

 

[sancho]

(crucially Dassualt are not calling the shots anymore).

Crucial, because now the last one must understand where the deal was stuck for all these years and not only blame the Indian side for it!
The problem however is, that you can't avoid Dassault to get Rafales in the numbers we need. The French government can't provide us with 126 fighters, nor can they give us a licence production, ToT or as mentioned the customizations. All this is dependent on Dassault and the industry around it, so this deal makes only sense if the MMRCA deal still goes through, without it, it's worthless.