Can Al-Qa’ida, be defeated in Pakistan?

[Logic note]

Can the Anbar Strategy Work in Pakistan? (SWJ Blog)

Can the Anbar Strategy Work in Pakistan?

By Clint Watts

Afghan and Arab fighters defeated the Soviet Union by pursuing a strategy that mobilized tribes to entangle a foreign occupier in a hostile land. In rugged terrain, Soviet conventional forces lost their initiative to a ruthless insurgency campaign. Through a decade of fighting, the Soviets ultimately died from a thousand cuts. They entered Afghanistan a world power and returned home demoralized by Muslim guerrillas, hastening the collapse of their regime.

In the 1990s, Osama Bin Laden decided to use a similar strategy against the United States. Spurned by his homeland of Saudi Arabia and vexed by the presence of infidels on holy soil, Bin Laden hoped to provoke the United States into a protracted entanglement in the Middle East. This entanglement, he thought, would increase al-Qa’ida’s prestige and recruitment, unify all Muslims, and ultimately exhaust the United States and lead to its withdrawal from the region.

In Somalia, Bin Laden’s first attempt to mobilize tribes on his own against the United States failed. While headquartered in Khartoum, Bin Laden deployed advisory teams to Somalia from 1992-1994. Through training, finance and religious indoctrination, al-Qa’ida’s insurgency cadres attempted to align the Muslim tribes of Somalia in a common effort to repel Western aid and military intervention. Instead of waging jihad on Westerners, however, al-Qa’ida found itself engulfed in an entanglement of its own, squandering precious resources and trapped in a chaotic morass of state failure.

Al-Qa’ida’s venture in Somalia failed for three reasons. First, al-Qa’ida did not understand the local tribal power structure. Bin Laden’s cadres found themselves trapped in a web of overlapping alliances in which Somali clans and militias routinely switched sides and were far more interested in focusing on the ‘near enemy’ of a rival clan over the ‘far enemy’ of the west. For African Somalis, simply surviving in a failed state took primacy over an ideological battle between outside Arabs and unknown Westerners. Second, al-Qa’ida’s brand of Salafi Islam clashed with the local variant of Sufi Islam. Somalis were uninterested in the oppressive Salafi preaching of Arab outsiders over the mystic Sufi strain of Islam worshipped in their society for centuries. Third, al-Qa’ida underestimated the costs of supporting an insurgency in interior Africa. Time and again, al-Qa’ida operatives failed to marshal sufficient resources—water, equipment, weapons—to maintain the loyalty of Somali tribes.

Al-Qa’ida has lost Iraq for the same reasons. First, Iraqi Sunni tribes have turned against the foreign fighters since their presence sustains the U.S. occupation. Second, Iraqi Sunnis were turned off by the restrictive practices of Salafi Islam which al-Qa’ida members implemented in areas they controlled. Third, with the shift in U.S. strategy, the increased intelligence and military action from Sunni tribal alliances, and the more stabilizing efforts of surrounding countries in the region, it has become logistically difficult for al-Qa’ida to maintain a fighting force in Iraq.

Recent U.S. success in defeating al-Qa’ida in Iraq has prompted policy makers and military planners to export this strategy to other theaters, specifically the tribal areas of Pakistan. However, the U.S. should ask itself three questions before continuing: Will the tribes of Pakistan’s frontier provinces turn on al-Qa’ida? Probably not. Unlike Somalia and Iraq, al-Qa’ida has operated in the tribal regions of Pakistan for more than two decades and today it is part of the region’s fabric, not an outsider. Will the ideology of al-Qa’ida clash with Pakistani tribes? In the past it may have, but today there is a greater overlap between the Deobandi strain of Islam that the Taliban follows and the Salafism of al-Qa’ida. Third, will financial and military inducements to Pakistani tribes translate into pressure on al-Qa'ida's logistics? Unlikely. The tribes in Waziristan have already withstood six years of pressure from Musharraf and al-Qa’ida has more than twenty years worth of supply networks in the region.

The U.S. is correct to seize upon any opportunity to dislodge al-Qa’ida from Pakistan’s tribal regions, especially if it involves the use of surrogates. However, it should not use a blanket strategy of alliances with al-Qa’ida’s hosts if the social, cultural and geographic conditions make its chances of success unlikely. If it does, U.S. forces might be the ones entangled, stretched logistically, and in conflict with the local ideology. As al-Qa’ida in Somalia and Iraq has learned, this is a bad place to be.

Clint Watts is a former US Army Infantry Officer, FBI Special Agent and Executive Officer of the Combating Terrorism Center at West Point. He is Co-editor and Co-Author of Al-Qa'ida's (Mis) Adventures in the Horn of Africa and Program Manager for the FBI-Combating Terrorism Center Education Initiative and Combating Terrorism Center Harmony Program which declassifies and publishes studies based on al-Qa'ida's internal documents captured on the battlefields of Afghanistan and Iraq.

 

[IceCold]

Recent U.S. success in defeating al-Qa’ida in Iraq has prompted policy makers and military planners to export this strategy to other theaters, specifically the tribal areas of Pakistan.

This is new. When did US got success in defeating al-Qaida in iraq? Both in afghanistan and iraq, US got its butt kicked and as soon the government changes we will see a withdrawl from iraq because US could not afford the killings of its soilders on foreign ground. Besides relating al-qeda with tribal people shows how stupid they are (media) when in reality actually there is nothing in common with the two. The tribal people are the people of pakistan and these are the same people who actually on more then a number of occasions killed or captured al-queda personals and put fire on the houses of those who were actually found guilty of supporting these elements. Though the tribal part has always praticed their own law for decades yet they were and have always been a part of the major pakistan and had actually no connection with al-qaida what so ever.
Moreover pakistan has made it very clear that any military operation done in the area would be by pakistan military, going the other way round will only assure one thing the grave yard for US soilders. It has already been proven in iraq, and the few success they US and allies got in afghanistan were due to pakistan's constant watch and action taken against any tailban movement in the area and the constant logistic support that pakistan is given.
The BS propaganda just keeps on going. There is just no stop to it. And in reality just because of this BS going on all along the western media due to some personal agenda, who only see what they want to see as truth and nothing more is the restraint between the US and pakistan relationship. Even the modest of all government will not allow US forces to cross the border under any circumstances.

 

[Neo]

Excellent post Ice, well said!

 

[Tiki Tam Tam]

This is new. When did US got success in defeating al-Qaida in iraq? Both in afghanistan and iraq, US got its butt kicked and as soon the government changes we will see a withdrawl from iraq because US could not afford the killings of its soilders on foreign ground. Besides relating al-qeda with tribal people shows how stupid they are (media) when in reality actually there is nothing in common with the two. The tribal people are the people of pakistan and these are the same people who actually on more then a number of occasions killed or captured al-queda personals and put fire on the houses of those who were actually found guilty of supporting these elements. Though the tribal part has always praticed their own law for decades yet they were and have always been a part of the major pakistan and had actually no connection with al-qaida what so ever.
Moreover pakistan has made it very clear that any military operation done in the area would be by pakistan military, going the other way round will only assure one thing the grave yard for US soilders. It has already been proven in iraq, and the few success they US and allies got in afghanistan were due to pakistan's constant watch and action taken against any tailban movement in the area and the constant logistic support that pakistan is given.
The BS propaganda just keeps on going. There is just no stop to it. And in reality just because of this BS going on all along the western media due to some personal agenda, who only see what they want to see as truth and nothing more is the restraint between the US and pakistan relationship. Even the modest of all government will not allow US forces to cross the border under any circumstances.

Whether the AQ has been defeated or not is a moot point.

Yet, there has been a lull in the number of attacks in Iraq and if that is defeating the AQ, then to that extent, the contention can be valid. But the idea and ideology has surely not been defeated. One wonders if it can be defeated!

The US has been able to succeed in getting the Arab Sunnis nations to restrain the Sunnis and so the Sunnis are cooperating with the US, wherein the Anbar province is a showcase effort of 'turning the tide'.

Contrary to the popular belief, the US can afford losing soldiers, now that the US population has become 'seasoned'. The Democratic obstruction has waned and the Congress recently allowed the budget for Iraq go through without much of hassle. Republican or Democrat, they are well aware of their country's national interest and geostrategic and geopolitical goals.

As far as Afghanistan border with Pakistan is concerned, one cannot guarantee that all tribal are not with the AQ. If they were not with them, then the problem would have been solved. The problem continues simmering, as also, it erupts occasionally like in Swat.

Having said that, it is also a truism that ALL tribal people cannot be clubbed to be with the AQ. There are many who just want to get on with their lives and without all this turmoil. But like all moderates, they (the moderate opinion) are forgotten by the media, which seeks sensationalism!

 

[Awesome]

It's kind of a myth that the attacks have lessened. It all seems to me a big face-saving scheme now that the US is butting out.

The reason that no one's calling their BS is that there is a lot of interest amongst all to let them bandage their bruised ego.

2007 is deadliest year in Iraq for U.S. military - International Herald Tribune

This article points out that the AQ presence maintains the western presence hence the tribes were inclined to side against AQ. It seems so typical of western ignorance and grandiosity, since Pakistani tribal folks have long been complaining that the western presence is maintaining AQ presence in those regions. It's the other way round!

AQ is a smaller issue in Pakistani tribal areas. It's the Taliban for us. AQ is always seen amongst them but the number of fighters they provide are quite few and most of them are not in commanding roles.

 

[Logic note]

Awakening shakes up Iraqi politics - 12/16/2007 - MiamiHerald.com

Awakening shakes up Iraqi politics
Posted on Sun, Dec. 16, 2007
Digg del.icio.us AIM reprint print email
BY TRUDY RUBIN
trubin@phillynews.com

BAGHDAD -- Eight bodyguards with machine guns guard the entrance to his three-story stone Baghdad office.

Six months ago Sheikh Ali Hatem Ali Suleiman al-Dulaimi predicted that tribal leaders would defeat al Qaeda in Anbar province, the Sunni tribal heartland. Now the young prince of the Dulaim, one of Iraq's largest tribes, exults that al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) has been driven out of Anbar by tribal fighters aided by American troops.

The sheikh receives guests in a large reception room decorated with historic photographs of his father and grandfather in traditional flowing robes, meeting respectively with King Fahd of Saudi Arabia and King Faisal II of Iraq. A young man with a trim goatee, in a gray suit and open-collared shirt, Ali Hatem's hand is constantly hitting the ''off'' button on his cellphone.

That's because tribal sheikhs all over Iraq are constantly calling him for information about the movement in Anbar, sometimes called the Awakening (''sahwa'' in Arabic). ``People I've never heard of before want relations with the sahwa,'' says Ali Hatem. ``The sahwa is not just an awakening of force but an awakening of heart and spirit, an awakening from sectarian hatred.''

Perhaps. But what's certain is that the sahwa movement -- which already has about 70,000 Sunni men under arms and may add 35,000 more -- is a dramatic new element on the Iraqi scene.

The striking improvement in Iraq security is closely connected to the rise of these forces. Tribal leaders in Anbar province who once supported AQI against the United States turned against the Islamic radicals when they overreached and started repressing the locals. At first, top U.S. military leaders rebuffed requests for aid by Anbar sheikhs, distrusting their motives.

But even before ''the surge,'' U.S. Marines in Anbar had begun aiding the tribal fighters, and in recent months the tribes have become the key to chasing AQI out of Baghdad and surrounding areas. The United States is now paying salaries for thousands of tribal fighters -- lumped under the rubric ''Concerned Local Citizens'' -- who are providing intelligence to the U.S. military or chasing down AQI fighters.

Many Sunni tribal leaders once hostile to the American presence and hospitable to insurgents, have become, for now, America's allies. Tribal youths who were once shooting at Americans, or killing Shiites, are now on the U.S. payroll. But everyone is asking: What will happen to those tens of thousands of newly empowered Sunni fighters if al Qaeda is gone?

Here's where it gets really interesting. U.S. military and civilian officials want the Iraqi government to put the tribal fighters on the government payroll, co-opting some into the army and police and providing the rest with vocational training or jobs. The idea is that such a program will give Sunnis reassurance that they have a role in a country now governed by a Shiite-led coalition.

The government, however, fears the nascent power and the numbers in the sahwa. Shiite parties in government fear they will become a new militia; Sunni parties see the movement's popularity as a threat to their base.

Under U.S. pressure, Iraqi money has just been appropriated for a jobs program, but some U.S. officials worry that it won't be implemented. They fear that disillusioned tribal fighters could be tempted back onto the payroll of militant groups.

None of these fears have stopped sheikhs like Ali Hatem from planning the expansion of the sahwa movement. He would like to see it spread to the north, where there are still AQI elements hiding out in cities like Mosul. More dramatic, he says that fed-up Shiite sheikhs from the south of Iraq, where existing Shiite religious parties are squabbling viciously over power, want information on how to form sahwa movements of their own.

The Iraqi government has said it won't tolerate any sahwa groups in the south of the country, and recently arrested a Najaf politician for suggesting a preliminary meeting. But Ali Hatem -- and other sheikhs with whom I spoke -- are looking at an awakening that goes beyond groups of fighters. They talk of forming a new political party -- nonsectarian -- built on a tribal base that includes Sunnis, Shiites and others. ''The political people in authority in Iraq have failed,'' he says. ``We cannot wait.''

Such a development may have to wait until Iraq holds provincial elections. But the ferment aroused by the sahwa movement is already shaking up Iraq's political scene. No one knows whether the movement will morph into one or several parties, or into job banks and army units or new militias. It has become the new military and political wild card in Iraq.

©2007 The Philadelphia Inquirer

 

[Logic note]

Iraq - the best story of the year | Tim Hames - Times Online

And there was one more that defied the notion that “the future is the past” completely. It was “Iraq is more peaceful in 2007 than at any time since the 2003 invasion”. Not only is this essentially correct but it is the most important story in the world this year.

By any measure, the US-led surge has been little short of a triumph. The number of American military fatalities is reduced sharply, as is the carnage of Iraqi civilians, Baghdad as a city is functioning again, oil output is above where it stood in March 2003 but at a far stronger price per barrel and, the acid test, many of those who fled to Syria and Jordan are today returning home.

 

[kidwaibhai]

this will never work in Pakistan because we are not fighting al qaeda we are actually fighting the taleban. i personally think and this might be wrong. i think the Pakistani government wants to contain the taliban not eliminate it. they think that because NATO is already stretched to the limit. None of the members are sending new forces. They think that sooner or later they will all leave with their tails behind their backs it is then that we can again bring Afghanistan into our sphere of influence and again have strategic depth. i personally think that this is a great idea. because i am a firm believer in the concept of " never putting all your f-16's in americas basket"

 

[Logic note]

what Pakistan is fighting is Taliban which closely identifies with Shalafi Islam of Al-Qa’ida, this was clearly visible during there rule in Kabul . they both are interrelated and are creation of certain section of Pakistani establishment .

This is the last stronghold of Al-Qa’ida and i think USA and the rest of world understands that .

 

[Malang]

Hello,

I have several points to make though


Holy Quran is divine and People are not, therefore their interpretation will be different as per their "nondivine" intellect , for example, Tsunami in South East Asia was seen by many as divine retribution even when they were aware of its mechanics.
--> Not everyone is competent/blessed/guided to teach and understand the Quran as it was meant.


Salafi and Wahabi Islam is a back to the basics form of Islam and is seen by sceptics as extreme, intolerant, rigid and narrow while the followers see it as puritan and perfect. Salafism and Wahabism is a form of Islam prevalent in Saudi Arabia and indeed many of the madrasas today are Salafi/Wahabi and are funded by the Saudi Monarchy. Saudis are considered by many to be the ultimate Muslims(richest too) and perhaps they also have a desire to propagate their form of Islam hence it is easier for them to carry out their mission.
--> Most madrasas esp in Poor countries/areas are Salafi/Wahabi funded by Saudis

which closely identifies with Shalafi Islam of Al-Qa’ida, .

Hello Logic Note,

Though with the declaration of Jihad on Saudi Monarchy and Suicide attacks by these organisations ,shows that irresp if whether they started as Salafi or Wahabi they have become a more mutant and "unIslamic" form of Islam(Salafi or Wahabi). Real Salafi or Wahabi adherents don't teach their kids to kill though it is a form of back to basics Islam with a less tolerant attitude.
--> They are not followers of Islam to "Us"(Normal Humans) though they started out as Salafi or Wahabi mostly.

this will never work in Pakistan because we are not fighting al qaeda we are actually fighting the taleban.

AQ is a smaller issue in Pakistani tribal areas. It's the Taliban for us. AQ is always seen amongst them but the number of fighters they provide are quite few and most of them are not in commanding roles.

Hello Kidwaibhai and Asim Aquil,

I feel Al-Qaeyda and Taliban are related organisations though Talibs were not Suicide bombers initially but have merged their ideology(at least in the upper echleons) with Al-Qaeyda as of what can be seen today. With US attacks on Afghanistan etc. have exacerbate the situation and Talibs have increasingly become Al-Qaeydish in thought, if they were not before. Al-Qaeyda today has a global presence and is a more of think tank, financial centre of many Terrorist organisations in the Islamic World. Talibs are "franchisees" and human resource providers, relegated to Tribal Areas of Pakistan and Afghanistan.
--> Taliban are a "sort of" Subcontinental Al-Qaeyda operatives/allies.

and are creation of certain section of Pakistani establishment .

Al-Qaeyda ideology is a result of ignorant evil minds. Some claim it to be CIA funded, some Pakistani funded but I personally feel it started out as an organisation to carry out veseted interests but either those vested interests have exponentially become more evil or the more likely case it has gone out of control. Personally Humans are more easily attracted to hate than love no wonder this policy of hate has garnered many adherents all over esp. in light of a very troubled environment in these regions(Lebanon, Palestine, Afghanistan etc).
--> irresp of nation of origin of creation it has become out of control.

As far as Afghanistan border with Pakistan is concerned, one cannot guarantee that all tribal are not with the AQ. If they were not with them, then the problem would have been solved. The problem continues simmering, as also, it erupts occasionally like in Swat. Having said that, it is also a truism that ALL tribal people cannot be clubbed to be with
the AQ. There are many who just want to get on with their lives and without all this turmoil.

Hello Salim,

I agree with you at the same time I also feel that some people in the Pakistani adminstration etc. will also be under the wraps of the Al-Qaeydish Ideology. The feelings of fraternity runs deep in the sub-continent as we are all aware. The remarks of Hamed Gul and Jawad Naseer of ISI are certain pointers of sympathisers of Taliban. Though I feel that whatever support they have is getting squandered by killing innocents (co-religionists mostly) in their own lands instead of fighting "Westerners".

But the idea and ideology has surely not been defeated. One wonders if it can be defeated!

Personally I feel Ideologies "can" be defeated if and only if you are taught something that is anti-thetical to them. If Pakistani govt is successful in teaching their citizens esp the youth, Ideologies at loggerheads with the Al-Qaeydish ideology than things can be better. Pakistan govt and Pakistan Islamic Parties have time and again sought to divest attention from the lack of basic amneties in Tribal Areas by playing with the emotions of these gullible people, it is time I think that Pakistan gets to work on the real motives as to why the youth follow such ideologies.
-->By providing opportunities, education etc. to Natives of Tribal Areas they will ultimately leave all this and contribute positively to Pakistan and the world.


Malang

 

[Cheetah786]

Saudis are considered by many to be the ultimate Muslims

iam not even going to bother touching rest of your post that statement alone says all.

 

[Malang]

iam not even going to bother touching rest of your post that statement alone says all.

Hi Cheetah786

Take it easy senior member, help me out here I don't think you are my sparring partner. I can be wrong and so can anyone else. I could come off a bit "unintellectual", seeing your lofty heights of intellectual development, hope you don't mind too much.

Saudis are considered by many to be the ultimate Muslims(richest too) and perhaps they also have a desire to propagate their form of Islam hence it is easier for them to carry out their mission.

Ultimate Muslims here for me means Most Puritan Muslims.

My motivations for saying the above stem from the fact that

Muslim nations look towards Saudi Arabia for guidance
Arabs have a superiority complex --> Shu'ubiyya
Arabs are paid homage by many non arab muslims --> Mawali Ajam
Saudi Arabia is where the genesis of Islam took place
Arabs were the first people to convert to Islam


as for being rich and for their desire to propagate their version of Islam is from my semi-extensive readings of newspapers and magazines. I can debate this as well.

Therefore since Arabs are "considered" and "think" themselves to be "puritan", are rich, and have a desire to enforce their version of Islam hence it makes it easier for them to do so.

These all statements are from my experience you could have had different experiences.

Malang

 

[Awesome]

Iraq - the best story of the year | Tim Hames - Times Online

peaceful with the highest number of deaths since the WoT started?

 

[Tiki Tam Tam]

Asim,

Valid points!

 

[Logic note]

peaceful with the highest number of deaths since the WoT started?

Statistics is like a mini skirt , it hides more then it reveals .
you cant ignore that things are changing and changing drastically . Al Qa'ida has failed to get the support of Common Iraqi and that is the triumph of American let coalition.
they are even talking to reducing the American Army in IRaq ( BBC, Today )

Baghdad residents revel in relative peace - CNN.com