Bullet train will need 100 trips daily to be financially viable: Study

[kbd-raaf]

HSR comments, Watch from 6:00 onwards:

Majority (of $15-16BN) will be funded through JICA with 0.1% interest rate over 50 years with nothing to pay back for the first 15 years. It's a pretty good deal and will create considerable employment and trickle down benefits for Make in India and the rest of IR with the ToT that will be delivered.

@anant_s @PARIKRAMA @Levina @ayesha.a @Koovie @Echo_419 @cloud_9 @kbd-raaf @ni8mare @patentneer @cb4 @Roybot @Parul @Capt.Popeye @MilSpec @nair @AUSTERLITZ @SpArK @mkb95 @SR-91 @ranjeet @arp2041 @Ankit Kumar 002 @Sky lord @IndoCarib @skyisthelimit @Star Wars @spartan117 @Unknowncommando @Water Car Engineer @acetophenol

0.1% interest. My lord. Wish money was that cheap for all of us. :O

 

[cloud_9]

HSR comments, Watch from 6:00 onwards:

Majority (of $15-16BN) will be funded through JICA with 0.1% interest rate over 50 years with nothing to pay back for the first 15 years. It's a pretty good deal and will create considerable employment and trickle down benefits for Make in India and the rest of IR with the ToT that will be delivered.

@anant_s @PARIKRAMA @Levina @ayesha.a @Koovie @Echo_419 @cloud_9 @kbd-raaf @ni8mare @patentneer @cb4 @Roybot @Parul @Capt.Popeye @MilSpec @nair @AUSTERLITZ @SpArK @mkb95 @SR-91 @ranjeet @arp2041 @Ankit Kumar 002 @Sky lord @IndoCarib @skyisthelimit @Star Wars @spartan117 @Unknowncommando @Water Car Engineer @acetophenol

A loan comprises of Sum + Interest.Most of the calculation were based on the repayment of the sum.

Delhi Metro is in red because of the debt repayments and they have only paid 2.4 K crore of the 24K crore debt.
100K is a big sum.

 

[Viny]

Few things to consider

1. First project is generally more costly, but this will allow to setup industry. See how Delhi metro moved the wheels and now how many metro projects are there and not only that India has started exporting metro coaches too.

2. Ahmadabad, unlike what people know is been pushed to replace mumbai as financial hub of India. There are many projects like GIFT and other private investments. Idea is to build a next generation infrastructure to sustain financial activities. Mumbai has outgrown itself. Ahmedabad has been working on this lines from last decade or so. Hence the connectivity between Mumbai and Ahmedabad. Bombay Stock Exchange has already booked its space in GIFT and will operate its international exchange from GIFT, Ahemdabad.

3. Mumbai Ahmedabad corridor connects city like Surat, India's fastest growing city with highest GDP. Not to say it leads in many industries be it Diamonds, Polyesters, Chemicals, Pharma etc. The entire belt between Mumbai and Ahmedabad is highly Industrialized. Yet these cities dont have very active airports. HSR will change the way people connect for business in this region.

4. Western railway already has majority of land available on this route for HSR, as they are making this route 4 tracked.

5. Mumbai Ahemadbad terrian is as flat as dosa no major hicups in build HSR, keeping cost low.

6. There is around 3-4L migrant public on mumbai ahemdabad and intermediate route using various modes of transportation. If even 5% of them convert to HSR to start with it would mean 15-20,000 people per day and that should be good to start with.

 

[Levina]

HSR comments, Watch from 6:00 onwards:

Majority (of $15-16BN) will be funded through JICA with 0.1% interest rate over 50 years with nothing to pay back for the first 15 years. It's a pretty good deal and will create considerable employment and trickle down benefits for Make in India and the rest of IR with the ToT that will be delivered.

@anant_s @PARIKRAMA @Levina @ayesha.a @Koovie @Echo_419 @cloud_9 @kbd-raaf @ni8mare @patentneer @cb4 @Roybot @Parul @Capt.Popeye @MilSpec @nair @AUSTERLITZ @SpArK @mkb95 @SR-91 @ranjeet @arp2041 @Ankit Kumar 002 @Sky lord @IndoCarib @skyisthelimit @Star Wars @spartan117 @Unknowncommando @Water Car Engineer @acetophenol

Will watch it when at home.

 

[Nilgiri]

Sorry if this has already been covered:

a) The 8% rate on the 20% of the total (after grace period) is a big assumption. JICA/Japan can easily bring that down especially if India gives/assures them follow on orders on other routes. Nothing is set in stone at this point. Its similar to the import of the first 36 rafales, there are long term mechanics that will naturally ease the capacity/cash fundamentals (i.e its win-win for both sides given the competition in both travel method and technology provider).

b) The analysis insulates the whole system. A huge amount of traffic will come with integration with the Talgo sets and future HSR extending to Pune etc (i.e throughfare).

The main thing that people (especially naysayers) dont realise about the objectives of this project:

a) Flesh out the issues with HSR in the Indian environment so that we are not caught with a mountain of issues when the demand is actually huge for it (say 2030 onwards). The experience gained by manufacturing, implementing, and running the whole system will be invaluable for later. These effects are completely ignored in the analysis too.

b) Create the capacity before, not during and after (i.e staying ahead of the demand curve).

c) To get a good idea of the financials of HSR and when it exactly becomes viable in Indian environment, so the scheduling of such projects can be optimized all around the country.


Its basically a pilot project. Over-analysing it is pretty silly because the overall plan for HSR in India is still quite fluid....and the loan terms are quite good to begin with and can be made pliable in the future too if needed.

@Abingdonboy @anant_s

 

[Abingdonboy]

Sorry if this has already been covered:

a) The 8% rate on the 20% of the total (after grace period) is a big assumption. JICA/Japan can easily bring that down especially if India gives/assures them follow on orders on other routes. Nothing is set in stone at this point. Its similar to the import of the first 36 rafales, there are long term mechanics that will naturally ease the capacity/cash fundamentals (i.e its win-win for both sides given the competition in both travel method and technology provider).

b) The analysis insulates the whole system. A huge amount of traffic will come with integration with the Talgo sets and future HSR extending to Pune etc (i.e throughfare).

The main thing that people (especially naysayers) dont realise about the objectives of this project:

a) Flesh out the issues with HSR in the Indian environment so that we are not caught with a mountain of issues when the demand is actually huge for it (say 2030 onwards). The experience gained by manufacturing, implementing, and running the whole system will be invaluable for later. These effects are completely ignored in the analysis too.

b) Create the capacity before, not during and after (i.e staying ahead of the demand curve).

c) To get a good idea of the financials of HSR and when it exactly becomes viable in Indian environment, so the scheduling of such projects can be optimized all around the country.


Its basically a pilot project. Over-analysing it is pretty silly because the overall plan for HSR in India is still quite fluid....and the loan terms are quite good to begin with and can be made pliable in the future too if needed.

@Abingdonboy @anant_s

And I think this is a critical point many are grossly overlooking:

a) Flesh out the issues with HSR in the Indian environment so that we are not caught with a mountain of issues when the demand is actually huge for it (say 2030 onwards). The experience gained by manufacturing, implementing, and running the whole system will be invaluable for later. These effects are completely ignored in the analysis too.

One day (and not in the too distant future) there will be real demand fo HSR in India and thus having the fundamentals of operating it safely in India already (along with the ToT imparted) established will mean widespread roll out can be done on a need basis in a short amount of time. The model will already exist in India and the issues will be ironed out. I think many ignore the fact that HSR is not like adding just another train line, there WILL be teething issues, it will take a long time to work out the kinks so the better you start the sooner a model can be established to roll out to the rest of the nation. Look at the Delhi Metro, very similar criticisms were made of it at the time (early 00s) but now it has expanded and is the model most other metros in India have adopted and many DMIC experts are working in these other metros to establish best practices from day one.

 

[Nilgiri]

One day (and not in the too distant future) there will be real demand fo HSR in India and thus having the fundamentals of operating it safely in India already (along with the ToT imparted) established will mean widespread roll out can be done on a need basis in a short amount of time. The model will already exist in India and the issues will be ironed out. I think many ignore the fact that HSR is not like adding just another train line, there WILL be teething issues, it will take a long time to work out the kinks so the better you start the sooner a model can be established to roll out to the rest of the nation. Look at the Delhi Metro, very similar criticisms were made of it at the time (early 00s) but now it has expanded and is the model most other metros in India have adopted and many DMIC experts are working in these other metros to establish best practices from day one.

Thats basically it.

It reminds me of the original development of the Shinkansen. The Japanese engineers went to Germany and France post WW2 if I am not mistaken (the Germans had already operated an electric train at more than 200kmh as early as 1900s if I am not mistaken). They then focused on incorporating what they had learnt (plus their own refinements and developments) on the most densely populated hub of their country between Tokyo and Osaka....and that was later extended over time to cover the rest of their country.

India is starting a little early given the average income, but what people dont realise is that India is not all that homogenous. It is basically many countries (going by income stratification) living together in one political union.

Thats basically why the loan was created the way it was. The Japanese also really need to secure a large majority of future Indian projects (i.e continued technology inputs and refining on top of what India internalises successfully over time)....because they are facing competition from many countries these days (France and China namely).

 

[cloud_9]

Sorry if this has already been covered:

a) The 8% rate on the 20% of the total (after grace period) is a big assumption. JICA/Japan can easily bring that down especially if India gives/assures them follow on orders on other routes. Nothing is set in stone at this point. Its similar to the import of the first 36 rafales, there are long term mechanics that will naturally ease the capacity/cash fundamentals (i.e its win-win for both sides given the competition in both travel method and technology provider).

You can't bring down the cost under a certain point.The Chinese cost is $17m and $21m per kilometre and that's the cheapest it will get with current technologies.

b) The analysis insulates the whole system. A huge amount of traffic will come with integration with the Talgo sets and future HSR extending to Pune etc (i.e throughfare).

It's called a risk and India doesn't have an appetite for such a risk.

The main thing that people (especially naysayers) dont realise about the objectives of this project:

a) Flesh out the issues with HSR in the Indian environment so that we are not caught with a mountain of issues when the demand is actually huge for it (say 2030 onwards). The experience gained by manufacturing, implementing, and running the whole system will be invaluable for later. These effects are completely ignored in the analysis too.

Have you looked at the Income growth of Indians and the overgrowing inflation ?
How did you come to the conclusion that demand will be huge in 2030.

b) Create the capacity before, not during and after (i.e staying ahead of the demand curve).

Staying ahead of demand when there is little demand.

c) To get a good idea of the financials of HSR and when it exactly becomes viable in Indian environment, so the scheduling of such projects can be optimized all around the country.

Its basically a pilot project. Over-analysing it is pretty silly because the overall plan for HSR in India is still quite fluid....and the loan terms are quite good to begin with and can be made pliable in the future too if needed.

$15 Billion pilot project just to prepare for the unforeseeable future demand when you are pretty much in red?

@Abingdonboy @anant_s[/QUOTE]

India is starting a little early given the average income, but what people dont realise is that India is not all that homogenous. It is basically many countries (going by income stratification) living together in one political union.

So basically these millions of Indian's who value travel time over slight cost are rich enough to buy HSR tickets but not an airline ticket.

 

[Nilgiri]

You can't bring down the cost under a certain point.The Chinese cost is $17m and $21m per kilometre and that's the cheapest it will get with current technologies.

I'm not talking about that. I'm talking about the loan financing.

Have you looked at the Income growth of Indians and the overgrowing inflation ?
How did you come to the conclusion that demand will be huge in 2030.

Have you looked at the growing Indian middle class? 15 years down the road, what do you think the disposable incomes will be?

So basically these millions of Indian's who value travel time over slight cost are rich enough to buy HSR tickets but not an airline ticket

OK so you have little idea about Indian travel patterns. Good to know. I mean why does anyone take Rajdhani and Shatabdi express these days at all? Just take a flight! Do you have any idea how many middle class folks take the train between cities that are relatively close because of the economics and time it takes for airport hassle? Just look at the distances in europe and japan where HSR is dominant over air travel.

 

[anant_s]

(the Germans had already operated an electric train at more than 200kmh as early as 1900s

Yes the Diesel Trainset (DRG Class SVT 877), often referred as Flying Hamburger was doing close to 160 kph top speed back in 1930s

& even prior to that in early 1900, Germany tested a Three phase railcar (operated on a test track by Royal Prussian Railways) clocked 210 kph using 3 phase OHE system.

 

[cloud_9]

I'm not talking about that. I'm talking about the loan financing.



Have you looked at the growing Indian middle class? 15 years down the road, what do you think the disposable incomes will be?



OK so you have little idea about Indian travel patterns. Good to know. I mean why does anyone take Rajdhani and Shatabdi express these days at all? Just take a flight! Do you have any idea how many middle class folks take the train between cities that are relatively close because of the economics and time it takes for airport hassle? Just look at the distances in europe and japan where HSR is dominant over air travel.

So the basic argument is " I know more about the Indian middle class hence my statement has more weight".

Have you even tried searching the Rail & Air Transport stats for EU.
Comparison with JR is ridiculous because JR zones are private entities and the population density is ridiculous along the lines.HSR was the reason JR was privatised.

FYI! Air is way cheaper in Japan than HSR,Tokyo - Osaka costs around 6000 yen on JetStar while it's 14,000 yen on the HSR.In China airfare is sightly expensive than Second class HSR ticket but then it all depends on your priorities,whether you want to save 200 Yuan and spend 10 hrs in a train or be at your destination in half the time.

 

[Nilgiri]

So the basic argument is " I know more about the Indian middle class hence my statement has more weight".

Have you even tried searching the Rail & Air Transport stats for EU.
Comparison with JR is ridiculous because JR zones are private entities and the population density is ridiculous along the lines.HSR was the reason JR was privatised.

FYI! Air is way cheaper in Japan than HSR,Tokyo - Osaka costs around 6000 yen on JetStar while it's 14,000 yen on the HSR.In China airfare is sightly expensive than Second class HSR ticket but then it all depends on your priorities,whether you want to save 200 Yuan and spend 10 hrs in a train or be at your destination in half the time.

You think Indian HSR is going to be priced definitively at this early stage w.r.t budget airlines?

Airports for short haul can often take a lot more time overall because of the airport capacity and procedures.

Why don't we wait and see how it all turns out? Its not like this is a back breaking loan and project.

 

[livingdead]

This was a vanity project all along. If they want let them create separate business entity that can raise money from market and not from taxpayers.

 

[Nilgiri]

This was a vanity project all along. If they want let them create separate business entity that can raise money from market and not from taxpayers.

JICA is financed by Indian taxpayer?

 

[livingdead]

JICA is financed by Indian taxpayer?

well, JICA will not take financial risk, it is going to provide cheap loan. If the business bleeds money, JICA will still required to be paid, right?
If this business is so sound, it can certainly raise money from equity/debt market, and let them shop around the world for loan/investor too. If/When it goes bust, taxpayers wont be affected.