Breaking News: Large explosion in western Tehran

[LeGenD]

F-35 carries too little amount of munitions in its internal bay.

Israeli F-35s cannot make it to Iran and operate effectively, without external fuel tanks and air to air refueling which would show up on OTH and Early warning radars.

F-22 is much deadlier and efficient than F-35, which is a jack of all trades and master of none plane.

If the F-35 comes from Israel, then it can penetrate some regions of Iran, and go back.

If the F-35 comes from the sea below Iran, then it can cover entire Iran and go back.

The F-35 is housing much of the equipment inside:

The F-35 carry 4 x missiles in VLO configuration; sufficient to take out 4 potential targets in one sortie.

The F-22 definitely brings more firepower to the table in VLO configuration; it is a huge aircraft after all.

did you just answered yourself?? without SEAD mission, f-35s armed with A2G bombs would be detected by OTH radars and an scramble of f-14 or mig-29 would down them easily.
but but but according to generals here it was f-35 bypassing all our radars bombed us while our fighter jets were watching them doing so...

The OTH radar systems can provide an early warning of sorts that something is up. Although it can be mistaken for a false alarm as well unless Iran is actually expecting an attack from Israeli Air Force. OTH radar systems cannot track VLO class targets in real-time due to poor wavelength resolution. If Iranian jets are scrambled due to an alarm, they would be in search mode for their own, and this will be like chasing a ghost over Iranian airspace - assuming the infiltration occurred in nighttime conditions which is most likely.

Although, Israeli F-35 can infiltrate Iranian airspace (see declassified image above), but it would have to use a cruise missile to attack a target as far as in Natanz. This is technically and theoretically possible. An attack of this nature would be best carried out in night-time conditions. Israel won't risk a scandal by doing this in daytime conditions.

But there is no proof that F-35 was used to attack targets of interest inside Iran lately. Reports will eventually surface.

 

[TheImmortal]

If the F-35 comes from Israel, then it can penetrate some regions of Iran, and go back.

If the F-35 comes from the sea below Iran, then it can cover entire Iran and go back.

The F-35 is housing much of the equipment inside:

The F-35 carry 4 x missiles in VLO configuration; sufficient to take out 4 potential targets in one sortie.

The F-22 definitely brings more firepower to the table in VLO configuration; it is a huge aircraft after all.


The OTH radar systems can provide an early warning of sorts that something is up. Although it can be mistaken for a false alarm as well unless Iran is actually expecting an attack from Israeli Air Force. OTH radar systems cannot track VLO class targets in real-time due to poor wavelength resolution. If Iranian jets are scrambled due to an alarm, they would be in search mode for their own, and this will be like chasing a ghost over Iranian airspace - assuming the infiltration occurred in nighttime conditions which is most likely.

Although, Israeli F-35 can infiltrate Iranian airspace (see declassified image above), but it would have to use a cruise missile to attack a target as far as in Natanz. This is technically and theoretically possible. An attack of this nature would be best carried out in night-time conditions. Israel won't risk a scandal by doing this in daytime conditions.

But there is no proof that F-35 was used to attack targets of interest inside Iran lately. Reports will eventually surface.

Do you even read what you post?

That version can barely cover eastern border of Iran. You do realize Israel will have to spend time in Iran?

In an internal weapon layout it can only carry 2 PGMs. Neither of which are powerful enough to penetrate Fordow or Natanz underground facilities. Anyone that says otherwise doesn’t know What they are talking.

So it would be a useless strike. An if Iran can detect U-2 flying at near space altitude it can detect a formation of F-35. F-35 is stealthy as long as it’s facing frontal radar waves and knows the direction radar waves are coming from to configure its assault.

Even Global Hawk was easily detected and it has a ultra low RCS (not as low as F-35 but not THAT much bigger either).

So again the strike would be useless and would in return lead to a salvo of missiles at Israeli military targets.

Don’t believe me? Go read what former heads of Mossad have said. Iran’s nuclear program cannot be stopped and Iran will eventually become a nuclear power. So don’t believe me then go listen to the heads of intelligence.

 

[Xerxes22]

In Al Assad case Iran could have killed around 100-150 US soldiers within 2-3 salvos. But it gave the enemy soldiers warning so they can escape to shelters. Iran just does not want to escalate. That is the point. It does not want a war.

I agree with the people saying that Iran lost its deterrence after General Suleimanis murder. They shud have went harder at it even if it meant exchanges. This has put us in a position of weakness as if the enemy now knows Iran will never attack full scale

Iran, Israel and Saudi Arabia are the 3 rogue nations destroying the entire middle east. Hopefully all 3 will destroy each other. Although speaking an Indo-Iranian language, maybe my heart goes to our fellow linguistic Iranian cousins.

Are u from Africa ? You have a weird foreign name. You ain’t got no cousin in Iran . You are our enemy . Get lost

What prophecies?
If anyone gets destroyed it would be Iran.

I would have weak knees if I were u. There are prophecies that an army from Khurasan (which is Iran) will invade and obliterate Israel until there are not one Israeli left. I hope u are in a holiday in California at that time. Otherwise Kaput for you boy

 

[TheImmortal]

I agree with the people saying that Iran lost its deterrence after General Suleimanis murder. They shud have went harder at it even if it meant exchanges. This has put us in a position of weakness as if the enemy now knows Iran will never attack full scale

Solemani wanted to die a martyr rather than die of old age. The issue is how poorly Iran has built a contingency around this happening. Ghaani is not Solemani in the same light Khamenei was not Khomeini in terms of charisma and voice. For one Ghaani can’t even speak Arabic nor does he have the extensive connections in the western Middle East countries as he dealt with the East.

I think that the Iran never thought it would be US pulling the trigger and the years of Israel being held back by either its intelligence community or the US led to complacency that Solemani was “too big too kill”.

The issue at stake is Iran isn’t the type to go off the reserve and lash out. It’s a bit like China in that it makes it decisions in years And decades not days or months like Western countries.

Even the missile attack on Al Assad was a big deal for Iran. If anyone other than Solemani was killed, Iran wouldn’t resort to such a tactic. But it had to respond or forever be seen as soft.

The problem here is that for all the bravado that IRGC Generals like Hajizadeh and Salami proclaim on the airwaves they have boxed Iran into a corner where the enemy is now calling on them to make good on their threats or be seen as nothing more than bluffs. Much like Israeli’s threats to attack Iran were just bark not bite from 2005-2014.

In conclusion, Iran’s factions care about upholding the Republic more than settling scores in the near term. So irregardless of what the IRGC wants to do, Rahbar and the factions of the Republic will be the ones that decide and they decide what’s in the governments best interest.

While we may see a surprise Saudi oil facility type attack in the coming months, I wouldn’t be surprised if we see nothing eyebrow raising either.

 

[Zarvan]

Solemani wanted to die a martyr rather than die of old age. The issue is how poorly Iran has built a contingency around this happening. Ghaani is not Solemani in the same light Khamenei was not Khomeini in terms of charisma and voice. For one Ghaani can’t even speak Arabic nor does he have the extensive connections in the western Middle East countries as he dealt with the East.

I think that the Iran never thought it would be US pulling the trigger and the years of Israel being held back by either its intelligence community or the US led to complacency that Solemani was “too big too kill”.

The issue at stake is Iran isn’t the type to go off the reserve and lash out. It’s a bit like China in that it makes it decisions in years And decades not days or months like Western countries.

Even the missile attack on Al Assad was a big deal for Iran. If anyone other than Solemani was killed, Iran wouldn’t resort to such a tactic. But it had to respond or forever be seen as soft.

The problem here is that for all the bravado that IRGC Generals like Hajizadeh and Salami proclaim on the airwaves they have boxed Iran into a corner where the enemy is now calling on them to make good on their threats or be seen as nothing more than bluffs. Much like Israeli’s threats to attack Iran were just bark not bite from 2005-2014.

In conclusion, Iran’s factions care about upholding the Republic more than settling scores in the near term. So irregardless of what the IRGC wants to do, Rahbar and the factions of the Republic will be the ones that decide and they decide what’s in the governments best interest.

While we may see a surprise Saudi oil facility type attack in the coming months, I wouldn’t be surprised if we see nothing eyebrow raising either.

As for Solimani death that Missile attack on USA base was a drama as USA was already informed before Missiles were fired but I am expecting a major event in USA.

 

[Dariush the Great]

Solemani wanted to die a martyr rather than die of old age. The issue is how poorly Iran has built a contingency around this happening. Ghaani is not Solemani in the same light Khamenei was not Khomeini in terms of charisma and voice. For one Ghaani can’t even speak Arabic nor does he have the extensive connections in the western Middle East countries as he dealt with the East.

I think that the Iran never thought it would be US pulling the trigger and the years of Israel being held back by either its intelligence community or the US led to complacency that Solemani was “too big too kill”.

The issue at stake is Iran isn’t the type to go off the reserve and lash out. It’s a bit like China in that it makes it decisions in years And decades not days or months like Western countries.

Even the missile attack on Al Assad was a big deal for Iran. If anyone other than Solemani was killed, Iran wouldn’t resort to such a tactic. But it had to respond or forever be seen as soft.

The problem here is that for all the bravado that IRGC Generals like Hajizadeh and Salami proclaim on the airwaves they have boxed Iran into a corner where the enemy is now calling on them to make good on their threats or be seen as nothing more than bluffs. Much like Israeli’s threats to attack Iran were just bark not bite from 2005-2014.

In conclusion, Iran’s factions care about upholding the Republic more than settling scores in the near term. So irregardless of what the IRGC wants to do, Rahbar and the factions of the Republic will be the ones that decide and they decide what’s in the governments best interest.

While we may see a surprise Saudi oil facility type attack in the coming months, I wouldn’t be surprised if we see nothing eyebrow raising either.

The point here is as other members here pointed out, including me, what is the grand plan of the IR ? What is the plan ? What do they want to do ? Expulsion of Americans from the ME ? Dream on, that will never happen, perhaps a few soldiers here and there might get reshuffled but the American plan on staying in the ME and leeching off the region's resources is not going to change.

What has IR under Khamenei in store ? Where are they heading with the nuclear program ? This nuclear drama is already ongoing since early 2000's for nearly 20 years and we still don't know where we are heading and what our ultimate plans are.

IMO, Khomeini was a much more better leader than Khamenei, the man had clear plans, rallied the entire country against literally the whole world and was not afraid of anyone and that set Iran for the powerful course. Actions speak louder than words and you can judge Khomeini by his fearless actions, he blew up many US marines, assassinated many traitors outside of Iran, even on US soil. Took over entire US embassy and handcuffed American diplomats like a bunch of criminals infront the entire world, all of this because the man had no fear, unlike the current leader Khamenei, who is more worried about his relatives well being and wealth than the nation's prestige.

If Soleimani got killed under Khomeini's watch have no doubt that the US embassy in Baghdad would have been flattened and turned into a pile of rubble with artillery.

Iran nowadays lacks a true genuine Khomeini

 

[LeGenD]

Do you even read what you post?

That version can barely cover eastern border of Iran. You do realize Israel will have to spend time in Iran?


View attachment 649842
In an internal weapon layout it can only carry 2 PGMs. Neither of which are powerful enough to penetrate Fordow or Natanz underground facilities. Anyone that says otherwise doesn’t know What they are talking.

So it would be a useless strike. An if Iran can detect U-2 flying at near space altitude it can detect a formation of F-35. F-35 is stealthy as long as it’s facing frontal radar waves and knows the direction radar waves are coming from to configure its assault.

Even Global Hawk was easily detected and it has a ultra low RCS (not as low as F-35 but not THAT much bigger either).

So again the strike would be useless and would in return lead to a salvo of missiles at Israeli military targets.

Don’t believe me? Go read what former heads of Mossad have said. Iran’s nuclear program cannot be stopped and Iran will eventually become a nuclear power. So don’t believe me then go listen to the heads of intelligence.

The opening remark - not a nice way to have a conversation.

I clearly mentioned that the argument is contingent upon from which location the F-35 is dispatched to Iran. The take-off location.

Coming directly from Israel without refueling, then the F-35 can penetrate parts of Iran near Iraq which is deep enough to carry out certain missions. Much more than barely penetrating the border. The F-35 have internal fuel tanks - do not underestimate its range and combat radius. But to strike at targets as far as in Natanz, it would have to use a cruise missile (I clearly mentioned this). I am alluding to the kind of attack which was noticed in Natanz recently though it could be an act of sabotage.

I do not recall talking about penetrating Natanz underground sections. This would obviously require a military operation of bigger scale and scope.

The former USSR could detect U-2 in the 1960s. U-2 is not VLO, not even close. It has other uses.

The notion of VLO is not frontal only; it is to be "all-aspect." The magic is not just in the shape, it is also in the skin treatment applied to the aircraft from time-to-time. Even the engine of F-35 is designed to deflect radar waves and minimize its thermal signature. It is purpose-built for the needful. Although not openly acknowledged, the F-35 can supercruise up to MACH 1.2 speed.

Global Hawk and VLO? Please stop.

Following aircraft are VLO class; F-22; F-35; RQ-180; B-2 Spirit. The upcoming B-21 Raider is ELO class. Others are far behind.

May I suggest you investigate what happened in Syria on the night of 18-04-19. This was the night when Israel did something more than taking out hangers. It was a message sent to certain circles around the world that there so-called anti-stealth measures are redundant. If somebody did not get the memo still, too bad.

Now WE discussed a hypothetical scenario; not something that is confirmed. So chill, mate.

 

[GWXP]

Note that murder of Soleimani was a direct US response to Iranian actions like attack on Abqaiq, downing of US drone and attack on oil tankers in 2019.

Iran started to act cocky by attacking oil tankers/downing US drone and most importantly attacking Abqaiq oil facility which was like a declaration of war from Iranian part...

After this US had to reestablish deterrence and murder of Soleimani was a proportional response to aggressive Iranian actions.

Regarding nuclear program...

Iran needs to win time...Iran needs time to design IR-9 centrifuge and Qaem SLV and if JCPOA will give this time to Iran-then it is good.

Nuclear weapons without means of delivering them are useless---so development of nuclear weapon and ICBM technology should go in concert.

IR-9 centrifuge is a key--while you need 3600 IR-1 centrifuges to build one bomb in a year---you need only 72 IR-9 centifuges to do the same job---it is easy to hide 72 centifuges.....Then you need ICBM to delivery nuke to US mainland

I think it will take 3 years before IR-9 will be ready and 3 year for ICBM technology to be tested.

Once you have ICBM technology and centrifuge 50 times more productive than IR-1.....you can build smaller and more compact enrichment facilities while having an ICBM for bomb.

Regarding war to stop Iran's nuclear program....

To prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear bomb US needs to invade Iran and change regime....Such an invasion of a big mountaneous country like Iran requires 1,5-2mln troops and a budget of 1,5-2 trln dollars----even US doesn't have this amount of resources.

And now if you can't invade--your only option is to bomb Iran....while US bombing can destroy Natanz and Fordow it can;t destroy acquired knowledge and expertise.

CIA says bombing will result in a 3 year setback to Iran;s nuclear program...Morever....after bombing Iran will withdraw from NPT, expel IAEA inspectors, cease answering IAEA questions and will start a secret enrichment program with tens of small enrichment facilities underground with IR-9 centrifuges which are 50 times more productive----while refusing to answer any questions by IAEA

To stop this secret WMD program-- 2003 Iraqi style invasion is required----and this is impossible due to limits of power.

So if US bombs Iran it will guarantee that Iran will withdraw from IAEA and NPT and eventually become a nuclear armed state through secret underground facilities unaccessable to IAEA in times when invasion is impossible.

So the best option to prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear armed state is to remove sanctions and offer Iran a candy in form of integration to global markets in exchange for control of Iran's nuclear program under JCPOA

Trump administration is too stupid and inexperienced to understand this

 

[Beny Karachun]

I would have weak knees if I were u. There are prophecies that an army from Khurasan (which is Iran) will invade and obliterate Israel until there are not one Israeli left. I hope u are in a holiday in California at that time. Otherwise Kaput for you boy

Idk what you're talking about, but you wish.

 

[Blue In Green]

Note that murder of Soleimani was a direct US response to Iranian actions like attack on Abqaiq, downing of US drone and attack on oil tankers in 2019.

Iran started to act cocky by attacking oil tankers/downing US drone and most importantly attacking Abqaiq oil facility which was like a declaration of war from Iranian part...

After this US had to reestablish deterrence and murder of Soleimani was a proportional response to aggressive Iranian actions.

Regarding nuclear program...

Iran needs to win time...Iran needs time to design IR-9 centrifuge and Qaem SLV and if JCPOA will give this time to Iran-then it is good.

Nuclear weapons without means of delivering them are useless---so development of nuclear weapon and ICBM technology should go in concert.

IR-9 centrifuge is a key--while you need 3600 IR-1 centrifuges to build one bomb in a year---you need only 72 IR-9 centifuges to do the same job---it is easy to hide 72 centifuges.....Then you need ICBM to delivery nuke to US mainland

I think it will take 3 years before IR-9 will be ready and 3 year for ICBM technology to be tested.

Once you have ICBM technology and centrifuge 50 times more productive than IR-1.....you can build smaller and more compact enrichment facilities while having an ICBM for bomb.

Regarding war to stop Iran's nuclear program....

To prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear bomb US needs to invade Iran and change regime....Such an invasion of a big mountaneous country like Iran requires 1,5-2mln troops and a budget of 1,5-2 trln dollars----even US doesn't have this amount of resources.

And now if you can't invade--your only option is to bomb Iran....while US bombing can destroy Natanz and Fordow it can;t destroy acquired knowledge and expertise.

CIA says bombing will result in a 3 year setback to Iran;s nuclear program...Morever....after bombing Iran will withdraw from NPT, expel IAEA inspectors, cease answering IAEA questions and will start a secret enrichment program with tens of small enrichment facilities underground with IR-9 centrifuges which are 50 times more productive----while refusing to answer any questions by IAEA

To stop this secret WMD program-- 2003 Iraqi style invasion is required----and this is impossible due to limits of power.

So if US bombs Iran it will guarantee that Iran will withdraw from IAEA and NPT and eventually become a nuclear armed state through secret underground facilities unaccessable to IAEA in times when invasion is impossible.

So the best option to prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear armed state is to remove sanctions and offer Iran a candy in form of integration to global markets in exchange for control of Iran's nuclear program under JCPOA

Trump administration is too stupid and inexperienced to understand this

How do you think things will play out if Trump does get re-elected to a second-term?

What should Iran do realistically?

 

[Dariush the Great]

How do you think things will play out if Trump does get re-elected to a second-term?

What should Iran do realistically?

I think people miss this important issue. Iran's stance under Khamenei has always been
No war, no negotiations with Trump
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/08/iran-khamenei-war-negotiations-trump-180813135405516.html

 

[GWXP]

How do you think things will play out if Trump does get re-elected to a second-term?

What should Iran do realistically?

If maximum pressure continues, there is nothing to lose----Iran should expel IAEA inspectors and increase number of centrifuges and uranium stockpile.

Iran should develop its nuclear program like a normal sovereign country without taking humiliating responsibilities on its nuclear program.

In this case US will have 2 choices: diplomatic solution like JCPOA or war

US will make a lot of threats but will not attack militarily, because closure of Straight of Hormuz and damage to regional oil infrastructure can still make a lot of damage to already weak US economy.

Remember that in 2014 Iran had 16.000 centrifuges and a lot of uranium---enough to make multiple bombs within a year.

Meantime R&D on IR-9 and large solid fuel engines in Shahrud should continue

ALso note that even nuclear Iran is not a threat to USA.

Zbigniew Brzesinski--former national security advisor to US president and close friend of Robert Gates-said that US managed to contain USSR---so containing Iran will not be a big issue. Nuclear Iran is not a threat to USA.

John Mearsheimer---important political scientist, claims that while nuclear Iran is not desirable, still nuclear weapons in Iranian hands are not a threat to US and Iran's nuclear program doesn't worth going to war.

The real problem is Israeli and Saudi lobbies in US that force US administrations to pay more attention to Iranian nuclear program

 

[Trench Broom]

It's a shame so many Iranians here put so much effort into coming up with ways of killing people. When to attack, how to attack, which country to attack etc. That's what all the Iranians on here ever talk about.

If the Iranian regime and its foot soldiers on pdf put just 50% of this same effort into becoming a normal country with normal relations, they could dominate the Middle East economically.

Iran is resource-rich country with a relatively educated people. Iranians in the west tend to be quite successful.

So if Iran decided to stop being a rogue pariah entity for the first time in 50 years and just retreat back to their large borders and opened up to the rest of the world, they would achieve far more dominance than what they're trying to achieve through terrorism and war.

At the moment, Iran is on the path to collapse trying to dominate a region it could dominate through legitimate means.

 

[TheImmortal]

Global Hawk and VLO? Please stop.
.

I suggest you educate yourself as I value your opinion and you seem to be non bias (generally).

Here is a good article that goes in depth if you like to read it:

https://patarames.blogspot.com/2020/07/3rd-khordad-mythical-missile.html

 

[Tom_Cruise]

How do you think things will play out if Trump does get re-elected to a second-term?

What should Iran do realistically?

If Trump wins again then all hell could break loose as then he doesn't have to worry about ratings and re-election again.

His links and sympathy for Israel, together with his volatile personality could plunge the region into war.