The costs for Pakistan are going to go up. I doubt whether India would be involved in this attack as it does not serve Indian purpose to attack educational institutes as it will fan the fundamentalist thinking more. The University is a hub of modern learning and inculcates a balanced and rationale thinking as opposed to the brainwashing being meted out in the fundamentalist religious seminaries there. This 'leaks' and news on either side of the border are nothing, but a tit for tat saga of immaturity, initiated by Indian media post-Pathankot and over the years and now being taken up by Pakistani media (on prodding by ISPR/PA?).
Few facts for consideration:
1. The abrupt arrival of Mr Narendar Modi for Mr Nawaz Sharief's birthday and to "jump start" dialogue with India must be seen in the backdrop of the simultaneous visit of Gen Raheel Sharief to US. I think one can safely rule out absence of some pressure on either sides by US. And with the real power being with PA in foreign affairs, one can safely assume that some kind of pressure was bought on the Gen, who, in his primary objective to ensure that his force levels for WoT are maintained, may have decided to play along. I have always said that the Gen appears to be pragmatic and has shown consistency in his goals.
2. The likelihood of JeM cadres acting alone/or without official backing by GoP/PA is also a strong possibility with Indian PM refraining from the usual banter of blaming Pakistan. Although, possibility of fringe elements in PA or Pakistani security establishments (who have historically used these groups; JeM moves in Pakistan freely even though they tried to assassinate Gen Musharraf) is there, the attitude by both PA and GoP has so far been positive.
3. In light of these developments, one only needs to look at the University attack as further upping the ante to derail the process between the two countries, something which only serves the numerous jihadi groups in Pakistan and elsewhere. A divide between India and Pakistan enables these groups to get intelligence, monetary and other support from unofficial government backing. This allows them to continuously spread their 'tentacles' and build a stronger cadre base in sub-continent, till they achieve the strength to directly and successfully challenge the central governments, something on the lines of ISIS.
4. For either countries, the biggest mistake will be to refuse pragmatism and go down the road of mutual escalation. One needs to be very clear that Indian interests dictate that Pakistan remains a unified state, but these groups ie TTP etc may be dreaming of merging with their brethren across the border in Afghanistan/joing the 'caliphate'. So, an attempt of escalation aimed at further driving a wedge into bilateral relationships.