BREAKING:Chinese Exports Collapse In February Despite Largest Credit Injection Ever

[Get Ya Wig Split]

Chinese Exports Collapse In February Despite Largest Credit Injection Ever

https://twitter.com/x/status/1103857327889960960

While a few will blame the total and utter collapse in China exports in February on the lunar new year's early date this year, the scale of the miss is simply stunning.

For a few brief seconds, everything was awesome as Bloomberg's initial headline proclaimed a big RISE in exports, but they quickly corrected - causing heart attacks across every tape-reading algo in the world...

Exports plunged 20.7 percent in February while imports fell 5.2 percent, leaving a trade surplus of $4.12 billion, the customs administration said Friday.

Economists forecast both exports and imports would shrink, although not as much as the fall. The Lunar New Year break fell about 10 days earlier than last year, likely boosting January’s shipments and weighing on February’s.

But Chinese imports from the US crashed the most on record...

In addition to the shutdown that happens each year, February was an uncertain period for Chinese exporters, with negotiations through the month on whether the U.S. would raise tariffs from March 1.

Analysts were quick to defend the crash as an outlier...

“There is big progress in the trade talks compared with a few months ago. But the trade tension itself brings uncertainties to companies, who could slow or delay their investment, or even move some of their production overseas” UBS AG economist Tao Wang said in a conference call on Thursday. A potential economic slowdown in the U.S. and Europe, together with their monetary policies, will also add to the external challenges for China, she said.

And the rest of the world better hope so too... because if this correlation holds up - all hell is about to break loose back in the 'decoupled' USA...

And Chinese stocks were already suffering their biggest drop of the year...

As a reminder, this collapse is occurring after the PBOC announced it had flooded the economy with a gargantuan 4.64 trillion yuan in various new forms of debt which comprise China's Total Social Financing in January, including notably, the "shadow" credit which Beijing had been aggressively cracking down on: an aggressive credit expansion which many took as a tacit confirmation that China was losing the fight with deleveraging.

So if 4.64 trillion didn't help... and RRR cuts... and promises of tax cuts... just what is the US and Chinese equity market pricing in?

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019...ebruary-despite-largest-credit-injection-ever

 

[Get Ya Wig Split]

Just in:

China’s February trade data come in much weaker than expected; exports fall more than 20%

China on Friday reported worse than expected trade data for the month of February, customs data showed amid Beijing’s trade dispute with the U.S.

Dollar-denominated exports fell 20.7 percent for the month of February from a year ago, missing economists’ expectations of a 4.8 percent decline, according to a Reuters poll. January exports rose 9.1 percent from a year ago.

Dollar-denominated imports fell 5.2 percent in February from a year ago, missing economists’ forecast of a 1.4 percent fall. January imports fell 1.5 percent on-year.

China’s February trade balance was also weaker than expected at $4.12 billion. Economists polled by Reuters had expected trade balance to come in at $26.38 billion. Trade balance in January was $39.16 billion.

China is currently in the midst of a two-week long annual parliamentary meeting, the National People’s Congress, which kicked off on Tuesday and ends next Friday (Mar. 5-15).

At the opening of that meeting this week, Premier Li Keqiang said the Chinese economy will likely slow this year, and revealed that the official economic growth target for 2019 will be 6.0 to 6.5 percent. That compares to an expansion of 6.6 percent in 2018 — its slowest growth since 1990.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/08/chi...orts-beijing-reports-china-economic-data.html

 

[mmkextreme_1]

Let's just wait for a trade deal and we can put this fiasco behind us.

 

[Yaseen1]

u.s stock market is in continuous decline for last 4 days
https://finance.yahoo.com/?guccounter=1

 

[mmkextreme_1]

u.s stock market is in continuous decline for last 4 days
https://finance.yahoo.com/?guccounter=1

None of those declines has seen a 3% drop in a day.

US markets have also roared back from touching the 21,700 mark. So a partial correction was in order.

 

[Get Ya Wig Split]

u.s stock market is in continuous decline for last 4 days
https://finance.yahoo.com/?guccounter=1

The Dow Jones Industrial Average has lost 2.5% in the last 4 days...

Shanghai index is down 3% so far today

 

[Yaseen1]

u.s stock market is much bigger than that of china so if less percentage decline occur loss incurred is greater than that of china with same percentage decline

None of those declines has seen a 3% drop in a day.

US markets have also roared back from touching the 21,700 mark. So a partial correction was in order.

 

[xyxmt]

during my 8+ years on PDF, this is the 56th time China has collapsed

 

[mmkextreme_1]

u.s stock market is much bigger than that of china so if less percentage decline occur loss incurred is greater than that of china with same percentage decline

That hardly matters the US economy is also bigger than China's.

Looking purely at percentage declines...the amount the US dropped is minuscule. Stop exaggerating it.

 

[LeGenD]

during my 8+ years on PDF, this is the 56th time China has collapsed

And US like 112th time.

 

[Nan Yang]

And US like 112th time.

But US did collapse.

 

[LeGenD]

But US did collapse.

2007 - 2008 Financial crisis? True.

 

[Nityam]

China does not need the US.

pakistan is going to be the next growth engine for china.

 

[Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen]

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/08/chi...orts-beijing-reports-china-economic-data.html

• China on Friday reported worse than expected trade data for the month of February, customs data showed amid Beijing's trade dispute with the U.S.
• February dollar-denominated exports fell 20.7 percent, compared to an expected 4.8 percent fall.
• February dollar-denominated imports fell 5.2 percent, compared to an expected 1.4 percent fall.
• China's overall trade surplus for the month came to $4.12 billion — much weaker than an expected $26.38 billion.

China on Friday reported worse than expected trade data for the month of February, customs data showed amid Beijing's trade dispute with the U.S.

Dollar-denominated exports plunged 20.7 percent for the month of February from a year ago, missing economists' expectations of a 4.8 percent decline, according to a Reuters poll. January exports had risen 9.1 percent from a year ago.

Dollar-denominated imports fell 5.2 percent in February from a year ago, missing economists' forecast of a 1.4 percent fall. January imports had fallen 1.5 percent on-year.

China's February trade balance was also significantly weaker than expected at $4.12 billion. Economists polled by Reuters had expected the overall trade balance to come in at $26.38 billion. The country's trade balance in January had been $39.16 billion.

China's politically sensitive trade surplus with the U.S. narrowed sharply to $14.72 billion in February from $27.3 billion in January.

'A lot of headwinds'
Although the 20.7 percent decline in Chinese exports for the month of February was a "big number" and the market will be "clearly disappointed," the negative number should not come as a surprise as investors have been expecting a slowdown both globally and in China, said Sarah Lien, director and client portfolio manager at Eastspring Investments.

"There are a lot of headwinds; there's a lot of moving parts in market," Lien told CNBC.

Analysts have been warning of an impending slowdown in Chinese exports even though overall economic data out of the country has been robust for the last year. Asia's largest economy continues to negotiate through a trade dispute with the U.S., its largest trading partner. Exports held up for much of 2018 as many exporters were rushing to ship their goods out before heavier tariffs hit.

According to sources who spoke to CNBC, Washington and Beijing appear to be approaching the finish line on trade negotiations that could end later this month.

Holiday distortion, but outlook still gloomy
Analysts also caution that data from China at the beginning of the year may be distorted by week-long Chinese New Year public holidays, which started in early February this year. In 2018, Chinese New Year holidays started in mid-February.

But, February's China trade data were "downbeat, even accounting for seasonal distortions," said Julian Evans-Pritchard, senior China economist at Capital Economics.

"The upshot is that today's downbeat data provide further evidence that global demand is cooling and remains consistent with subdued domestic demand," Evans-Pritchard wrote in a note on Friday.

"A row back in U.S. tariffs would provide a mild boost to exports but not enough to offset the broader external headwinds. Meanwhile, with policy stimulus unlikely to put a floor beneath growth until the second half of the year, imports will remain under pressure in the near-term," he added.

Despite concerns of a deceleration in Chinese growth, Eastspring is bullish on the world's second-largest economy as there are "a lot of ways to play China," Lien said.

She said the Chinese domestic market is one Eastspring is focused on.

"The domestic economy is a hugely growing and large part of the market, there's plenty of opportunities there," she said.

China is currently in the midst of a two-week annual parliamentary meeting, the National People's Congress, which kicked off on Tuesday and ends next Friday (Mar. 5-15).

At the opening of that meeting this week, Premier Li Keqiang said the Chinese economy will likely slow this year, and revealed that the official economic growth target for 2019 will be 6 to 6.5 percent. That compares to an expansion of 6.6 percent in 2018 — which was already China's slowest pace of growth since 1990.

 

[Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen]

Shanghai stocks plummet more than 4%: 'China's trade recession has started to emerge'

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/08/movement-in-shanghai-stocks-following-chinese-trade-data-miss.html

Looks like Trump effect is starting to show.

@pakistanipower @nahtanbob @gambit @vostok @F-22Raptor @LeGenD @KAL-EL