Bol Narratives Interview (April 2017) with ACM Sohail Aman

[YeBeWarned]

They need something to in due course replace F-16 with, and beyond that JF-17.

It seems like F-16 will be replaced by TFx and JF will be replace by J-31 .. just my intuition

 

[Avicenna]

There's ALOT of moving parts with PAF procurement.

Its absolutely fascinating.

 

[SQ8]

Would be great to obtain some J-16? With nice PL-15 and PL-10. Maybe have JF-17s carry PL-10? Hopefully with some sort of HMS at some point?

J-16 comes with lyulka clause and Private Russian objection to the export of the Chinese flanker offshoots.

So Russian option ( no matter ) which jet, was more than rumor ...you think Mig-35's will have a chance ?

I think Chinese J-11D or J-16 option was better option as there wont be string attached and no Indian influence can ruined the deal ..

I think this getting Su-35 from China was mentioned by a Chinese member but people didn't take it serious .

Unlikely, the Mig-35 is currently being pushed to India and is still a little overlapping with F-16s and JF-17s. If is medium size we want something with western sophistication or reliability like the EF, otherwise if we are going to end up spending money on buying and operating a third platform; it either has to be potent enough(Su-35) to justify the initial(and continuing) expenses or affordable enough(J-10) so we can throw more of them into a fight.

 

[YeBeWarned]

Unlikely, the Mig-35 is currently being pushed to India and is still a little overlapping with F-16s and JF-17s. If is medium size we want something with western sophistication or reliability like the EF, otherwise if we are going to end up spending money on buying and operating a third platform; it either has to be potent enough(Su-35) to justify the initial(and continuing) expenses or affordable enough(J-10) so we can throw more of them into a fight.

IAF is going for F-16's assembly, and 36 Rafale ,i doubt they will have much left for replacing Mig-29K's with Mig-35's .. and as far as i remember not long ago, they initiate a Moderation program for Mig-29 .
but the question comes back to what ACM has not even hinted a bit that Su-35's are either on table or not .. If India get F-16's and ignore the Mig's that can push Russians to sell Su'-35 to PAF .. but again as you say its a very wild situation to bet on .. you really think J-10 still got a Chance ? cause if PAF chose J-10's now, it will bring a lot of criticism that they could have made this decision long ago if its just to put more planes in the Air to Fight ..

 

[SQ8]

IAF is going for F-16's assembly, and 36 Rafale ,i doubt they will have much left for replacing Mig-29K's with Mig-35's .. and as far as i remember not long ago, they initiate a Moderation program for Mig-29 .
but the question comes back to what ACM has not even hinted a bit that Su-35's are either on table or not .. If India get F-16's and ignore the Mig's that can push Russians to sell Su'-35 to PAF .. but again as you say its a very wild situation to bet on .. you really think J-10 still got a Chance ? cause if PAF chose J-10's now, it will bring a lot of criticism that they could have made this decision long ago if its just to put more planes in the Air to Fight ..

There is a difference in the financials of today vs five years ago. The entirety of PAF procurement can't be on debt

 

[Avicenna]

There is a difference in the financials of today vs five years ago. The entirety of PAF procurement can't be on debt

So in your estimation, what do you think is the most likely 4.5 gen stop gap?

 

[Blue Marlin]

J-16 comes with lyulka clause and Private Russian objection to the export of the Chinese flanker offshoots.



Unlikely, the Mig-35 is currently being pushed to India and is still a little overlapping with F-16s and JF-17s. If is medium size we want something with western sophistication or reliability like the EF, otherwise if we are going to end up spending money on buying and operating a third platform; it either has to be potent enough(Su-35) to justify the initial(and continuing) expenses or affordable enough(J-10) so we can throw more of them into a fight.

i thought the j11 being exported to pakistan was vetoed? but then again there not exactly gonna make a sale there anyway right?

china can buy the su-35 and modify it to have an aesa radar and integrated to hold their missiles, and pass them on to pakistan and thats naughty and would mean russia sold them to china on the intent to be passed on to pakistan in the first place and all be Rushdie.

mind you i thought youd said the airforce was looking at the eft whilst the mod was looking at the su-35? what happened to that theory, paf bending over?

india will likely get the fgfa around ~2030 the tfx is around 2035 ish for production variants to roll of.
i think pakistan is stuck between a rock and a hard place. they want the juicy tfx but does not want to wait but would like the j31 as its only around the corner (~2023)

what will they pick. i think 2019 will give us a clue, if they update the jf-17 bl3 with ws-13 then its highly likely they will go for the j31 and possibly the tfx later on down the line. (the idea i like) or if it pops out with rd93ma's then its the highly likely its gonna be the tfx?

 

[Avicenna]

TFX will likely use EJ 200.

 

[Ahmet Pasha]

@Bilal Khan (Quwa) in the article you have posted. ACM talks about collaborating with Turkey what do u think he means by that?

 

[Avicenna]

Maybe PAF is banking on a large supply of excess late model F-16s being available as F-35 comes on line in Turkey?

Either way the earlier 80's A versions must be getting long in the tooth at this point airframe wise, although the 90's sanctions may have been a blessing in preserving airframe life.

 

[Ahmet Pasha]

i thought the j11 being exported to pakistan was vetoed? but then again there not exactly gonna make a sale there anyway right?

china can buy the su-35 and modify it to have an aesa radar and integrated to hold their missiles, and pass them on to pakistan and thats naughty and would mean russia sold them to china on the intent to be passed on to pakistan in the first place and all be Rushdie.

mind you i thought youd said the airforce was looking at the eft whilst the mod was looking at the su-35? what happened to that theory, paf bending over?

india will likely get the fgfa around ~2030 the tfx is around 2035 ish for production variants to roll of.
i think pakistan is stuck between a rock and a hard place. they want the juicy tfx but does not want to wait but would like the j31 as its only around the corner (~2023)

what will they pick. i think 2019 will give us a clue, if they update the jf-17 bl3 with ws-13 then its highly likely they will go for the j31 and possibly the tfx later on down the line. (the idea i like) or if it pops out with rd93ma's then its the highly likely its gonna be the tfx?

I think that pakistan should enter into the tfx program and work with Turks to make tfx beyond 5th gen. Because many nations are already coming up with new designs and ideas for fighter jets for example germanys plans to replace tornado with new advanced jet!

 

[YeBeWarned]

There is a difference in the financials of today vs five years ago. The entirety of PAF procurement can't be on debt

Financials are getting better along with PAF cut in the budget .. China wont be that Generous as some members here think , can't get everything with Debt or loans .. Muft ka maal has its limitations

 

[CriticalThought]

My personal opinion. PAF should go for increased numbers of JF-17 by adding production capacity and keep improving the quality of Thunder by creating new blocks. I would like to see 250 Thunders, all being continuously upgraded.

I would also like to see a potent 4+ gen delta wing platform to replace the Mirages, which should also be indigenous. 50-100 of these would be a very nice number to have. These should be medium weight, mainly for strike role, but equally potent in A2A role accompanying the Thunders. My ideal package is 4 Thunders + 2 delta wing medium weight fighters.

In addition, it should go for 5-10 H-20 bombers, that remain stationed in China, but can be flown by PAF pilots as and when the need arises. The procurement itself doesn't need to be advertised even. People will laugh and point out lack of funds and sensitive technology and what nots, but I think if PAF can pull this off, it will be a truly lethal force and would be in shape to meet any and all challenges.

 

[Ahmet Pasha]

In the interview he did explicitly mention that paf is thinking about collaborating with turkey for tfx!!!

 

[Bilal Khan (Quwa)]

J-16 comes with lyulka clause and Private Russian objection to the export of the Chinese flanker offshoots.



Unlikely, the Mig-35 is currently being pushed to India and is still a little overlapping with F-16s and JF-17s. If is medium size we want something with western sophistication or reliability like the EF, otherwise if we are going to end up spending money on buying and operating a third platform; it either has to be potent enough(Su-35) to justify the initial(and continuing) expenses or affordable enough(J-10) so we can throw more of them into a fight.

It will ultimately boil down to the J-10, Su-30SME and Typhoon T3.

Although the Su-35 is a great platform, I fear its integrated nature (while good) may make it difficult for the PAF to feasibly customize. It would be done, but in the end the PAF won't have that many units (relative to the fighter's expected availability rate). Moreover, because it is a Russian platform, it is unlikely that the PAF will be able to mesh the Su-35s with the F-16s for certain offensive operations, such as deep-strike.

Thus, Eastern options will have to operate on their own and that will necessitate greater numbers. In that respect, cheaper platforms - like the J-10 and Su-30SME - could be sought in numbers instead. In fact, the Su-30SME can be bought from Russia and then routed to China for customization before being sent to the PAF.

On the other hand, while the PAF would not be able to buy more than 2 Typhoon T3 squadrons, it can at least mesh the Typhoon with the F-16s. They can probably operate from the same bases and obviously communicate with one another and the Erieye via Link-16. Some munitions can also be shared, such as the AMRAAM, JDAM and Sniper ATP, while Turkey can serve as a source for SOW (e.g. SOM ALCM, Atmaca AShM, HGK, etc) and AAMs (e.g. Merlin MRAAM and Peregrine HOBS AAM).

There is also the Gripen E/F, probably the cheapest option available, though very close in parameters to the JF-17 Block-III. That said, $130 m for the fighter plus the support package is a good price, it (above the JF-17) gets you 10 hardpoints and supercruise. Is it worth it (over the JF-17 and F-16)? Probably not.