BLOOMBERG: China’s Debt-to-GDP Ratio Rises to Record 279.7% on Credit Boom

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China’s Debt-to-GDP Ratio Rises to Record 279.7% on Credit Boom​

The Chinese economy’s debt ratio reached a record high in the first quarter of the year, with bank loans to companies surging as the nation reopened from Covid Zero.

The macro leverage ratio — or total debt as a percentage of gross domestic product — soared to 279.7% in the first quarter, according to central bank and statistics bureau data compiled by Bloomberg. That was an increase of 7.7 percentage points from the previous quarter, the biggest jump in three years.

The debt ratio held by non-financial corporates rose 5.8 percentage points. Leverage ratios for the household and government sectors were each up by around 1 percentage point.

The data doesn’t include bank loans to local government financing vehicles.

At an April briefing, a People’s Bank of China spokeswoman said the country’s macro-leverage ratio climbed to nearly 290% in the first quarter of 2023, partly due to seasonal factors such as faster loan extension and the front-loaded issuance of government bonds.

The spokeswoman said at the time that the ratio should remain stable this year given the momentum of the economic recovery.

Credit data due later this week, meanwhile, will likely show an increase in April from a year ago, the China Securities Journal reported Monday. It cited an analyst who said a rebound in the rates of bankers’ acceptances in the last week of the month as a sign that credit demand was resilient.

• Leverage ratio for non-financial sectors rose to 165.7% vs 159.9% in the previous quarter
• Leverage ratio for household sector rose to 63.3% vs 62.2% in the previous quarter
• Leverage ratio for government sector rose to 50.7% vs 49.9% in the previous quarter

Note 1: Loans to households are consumer and operating loans.
Note 2: Loans to non-financial sector include corporate bonds, entrusted loans, trust loans, undiscounted bank acceptance bills and overseas loans, but excluding loans to local government financing vehicles.
Note 3: Data are subject to revisions.
Source: National Bureau of Statistics, People’s Bank of China, Bloomberg

China’s Debt-to-GDP Ratio Rises to Record 279.7% on Credit Boom

The Chinese economy’s debt ratio reached a record high in the first quarter of the year, with bank loans to companies surging as the nation reopened from Covid Zero.

www.bloomberg.com

In many ways, this is the main reason why it is unlikely that the Chinese Yuan will ever become the world's reserve currency as the dollar will continue to reign supreme

@F-22Raptor @Hamartia Antidote

bums @beijingwalker @S10 @etylo

 

[PDF]

What are the implications? I mean the news should at least tell what all of this data means?

 

[GreatHanWarrior]

China’s Debt-to-GDP Ratio Rises to Record 279.7% on Credit Boom​

View attachment 928254

The Chinese economy’s debt ratio reached a record high in the first quarter of the year, with bank loans to companies surging as the nation reopened from Covid Zero.

The macro leverage ratio — or total debt as a percentage of gross domestic product — soared to 279.7% in the first quarter, according to central bank and statistics bureau data compiled by Bloomberg. That was an increase of 7.7 percentage points from the previous quarter, the biggest jump in three years.

The debt ratio held by non-financial corporates rose 5.8 percentage points. Leverage ratios for the household and government sectors were each up by around 1 percentage point.

View attachment 928252

The data doesn’t include bank loans to local government financing vehicles.

At an April briefing, a People’s Bank of China spokeswoman said the country’s macro-leverage ratio climbed to nearly 290% in the first quarter of 2023, partly due to seasonal factors such as faster loan extension and the front-loaded issuance of government bonds.

The spokeswoman said at the time that the ratio should remain stable this year given the momentum of the economic recovery.

Credit data due later this week, meanwhile, will likely show an increase in April from a year ago, the China Securities Journal reported Monday. It cited an analyst who said a rebound in the rates of bankers’ acceptances in the last week of the month as a sign that credit demand was resilient.

• Leverage ratio for non-financial sectors rose to 165.7% vs 159.9% in the previous quarter
• Leverage ratio for household sector rose to 63.3% vs 62.2% in the previous quarter
• Leverage ratio for government sector rose to 50.7% vs 49.9% in the previous quarter

View attachment 928251
Note 1: Loans to households are consumer and operating loans.
Note 2: Loans to non-financial sector include corporate bonds, entrusted loans, trust loans, undiscounted bank acceptance bills and overseas loans, but excluding loans to local government financing vehicles.
Note 3: Data are subject to revisions.
Source: National Bureau of Statistics, People’s Bank of China, Bloomberg

China’s Debt-to-GDP Ratio Rises to Record 279.7% on Credit Boom

The Chinese economy’s debt ratio reached a record high in the first quarter of the year, with bank loans to companies surging as the nation reopened from Covid Zero.

www.bloomberg.com

In many ways, this is the main reason why it is unlikely that the Chinese Yuan will ever become the world's reserve currency as the dollar will continue to reign supreme

@F-22Raptor @Hamartia Antidote

bums @beijingwalker @S10 @etylo

Of course, it is very prosperous.

US faces $31.4 trillion national debt crisis – and Republican divisions could make it harder to solve than ever

Republicans and Democrats may find it harder than ever to reach an agreement on how to tackle the enormous national debt before July.

www.google.co.jp

 

[ziaulislam]

China’s Debt-to-GDP Ratio Rises to Record 279.7% on Credit Boom​

View attachment 928254

The Chinese economy’s debt ratio reached a record high in the first quarter of the year, with bank loans to companies surging as the nation reopened from Covid Zero.

The macro leverage ratio — or total debt as a percentage of gross domestic product — soared to 279.7% in the first quarter, according to central bank and statistics bureau data compiled by Bloomberg. That was an increase of 7.7 percentage points from the previous quarter, the biggest jump in three years.

The debt ratio held by non-financial corporates rose 5.8 percentage points. Leverage ratios for the household and government sectors were each up by around 1 percentage point.

View attachment 928252

The data doesn’t include bank loans to local government financing vehicles.

At an April briefing, a People’s Bank of China spokeswoman said the country’s macro-leverage ratio climbed to nearly 290% in the first quarter of 2023, partly due to seasonal factors such as faster loan extension and the front-loaded issuance of government bonds.

The spokeswoman said at the time that the ratio should remain stable this year given the momentum of the economic recovery.

Credit data due later this week, meanwhile, will likely show an increase in April from a year ago, the China Securities Journal reported Monday. It cited an analyst who said a rebound in the rates of bankers’ acceptances in the last week of the month as a sign that credit demand was resilient.

• Leverage ratio for non-financial sectors rose to 165.7% vs 159.9% in the previous quarter
• Leverage ratio for household sector rose to 63.3% vs 62.2% in the previous quarter
• Leverage ratio for government sector rose to 50.7% vs 49.9% in the previous quarter

View attachment 928251
Note 1: Loans to households are consumer and operating loans.
Note 2: Loans to non-financial sector include corporate bonds, entrusted loans, trust loans, undiscounted bank acceptance bills and overseas loans, but excluding loans to local government financing vehicles.
Note 3: Data are subject to revisions.
Source: National Bureau of Statistics, People’s Bank of China, Bloomberg

China’s Debt-to-GDP Ratio Rises to Record 279.7% on Credit Boom

The Chinese economy’s debt ratio reached a record high in the first quarter of the year, with bank loans to companies surging as the nation reopened from Covid Zero.

www.bloomberg.com

In many ways, this is the main reason why it is unlikely that the Chinese Yuan will ever become the world's reserve currency as the dollar will continue to reign supreme

@F-22Raptor @Hamartia Antidote

bums @beijingwalker @S10 @etylo

This includes all loans not just govt backed credit
USA has much higher figure if you start counting credit card student loans and so on

What are the implications? I mean the news should at least tell what all of this data means?

Nothing
Pretty small amount to be honest

Housing sector is the problem in China
Because demand isn't there and too much credit was taken

Too many apartments were built that no one wants with credit while the ones people want can't be built because of lack of more credit

Housing is 1/5 of Chinese economy so it's problem

 

[StraightEdge]

What are the implications? I mean the news should at least tell what all of this data means?

What do you mean? Everyone here is an expert in macroeconomics.

 

[xuxu1457]

This includes all loans not just govt backed credit
USA has much higher figure if you start counting credit card student loans and so on


Nothing
Pretty small amount to be honest

Housing sector is the problem in China
Because demand isn't there and too much credit was taken

Too many apartments were built that no one wants with credit while the ones people want can't be built because of lack of more credit

Housing is 1/5 of Chinese economy so it's problem

This is the media, using all China's debt (including family, enterprises, government, etc.), compared with government debt in other countries
Japan Government debt accounted for 225.9 % of the country's Nominal GDP in Dec 2022
Japan Total Debt accounted for 1,316.5 % of the country's GDP in 2022
SO.........

while US
United States Total Debt accounted for 764.7 % of the country's GDP in 2022
so only debt of China is a problem

 

[dbc]

What are the implications? I mean the news should at least tell what all of this data means?

implications are that many SOEs (State Owned Enterprise), provincial governments are on the threshold of default.Provincial Governments are no longer able to use land sales to service debt, some are unable to pay workers unless the central government bails them out. No one really knows how this will play out, the debt is internal but there are several factors such as high unemployment, low household consumption, housing bubble, exodus of contract manufacturers and low demand due to inflation across Asia and the west that will constrain the central governments ability to intervene.

 

[xuxu1457]

implications are that many SOEs (State Owned Enterprise), provincial governments are on the threshold of default.Provincial Governments are no longer able to use land sales to service debt, some are unable to pay workers unless the central government bails them out. No one really knows how this will play out, the debt is internal but there are several factors such as high unemployment, low household consumption, housing bubble, exodus of contract manufacturers and low demand due to inflation across Asia and the west that will constrain the central governments ability to intervene.

France Total Debt accounted for 991.9 % of the country's GDP in 2022, compared with the ratio of 994.2 % in the previous quarter. See the table below for more data.

LAST	PREVIOUS	MIN	MAX	UNIT	FREQUENCY	RANGE
991.9 Sep 2022	994.2 Jun 2022	494.7Mar 1996	1,054.6Mar 2021	%	quarterly	Mar 1996 - Sep 2022

United States Total Debt accounted for 764.7 % of the country's GDP in 2022, compared with the ratio of 772.1 % in the previous quarter. See the table below for more data.

LAST	PREVIOUS	MIN	MAX	UNIT	FREQUENCY	RANGE
764.7 Dec 2022	772.1 Sep 2022	304.2 Jun 1953	848.9 Mar 2021	%	quarterly	Dec 1951 - Dec 2022

happy? or worry 279.7% of CHina

 

[xuxu1457]

country	total Debt/GDP (%)
Luxembourg (%)	7,469.20
Cyprus (%)	1,399.30
Japan (%)	1,316.50
Malta (%)	1,255.20
Ireland (%)	1,121.80
Switzerland (%)	1,056.30
United Kingdom (%)	1,035.20
Netherlands (%)	1,002.90
France (%)	991.9
Denmark (%)	953.1
Canada (%)	927.1
Taiwan (%)	888.4
European Union (%)	807.3
Sweden (%)	780.9
Iceland (%)	766.2
United States (%)	764.7
South Korea (%)	757
Belgium (%)	733.6
Finland (%)	663.6
Germany (%)	651.8
Italy (%)	644.8
New Zealand (%)	634.4
Greece (%)	617.8
Portugal (%)	560.8
Austria (%)	558
Norway (%)	509.3
Slovakia (%)	476.4
Croatia (%)	460.3
Hungary (%)	445.7
Bulgaria (%)	385.6
Czech Republic (%)	382.5
Estonia (%)	362
North Macedonia (%)	352.6
Slovenia (%)	337.4
Turkey (%)	322.7
Latvia (%)	317.8
Ukraine (%)	298.1
Poland (%)	296.2
Lithuania (%)	292.7
China(%)	279.7
Australia (%)	264
Romania (%)	246
Mexico (%)	110.5

click country to see detail

 

[ziaulislam]

France Total Debt accounted for 991.9 % of the country's GDP in 2022, compared with the ratio of 994.2 % in the previous quarter. See the table below for more data.

LAST	PREVIOUS	MIN	MAX	UNIT	FREQUENCY	RANGE
991.9 Sep 2022	994.2 Jun 2022	494.7Mar 1996	1,054.6Mar 2021	%	quarterly	Mar 1996 - Sep 2022

United States Total Debt accounted for 764.7 % of the country's GDP in 2022, compared with the ratio of 772.1 % in the previous quarter. See the table below for more data.

LAST	PREVIOUS	MIN	MAX	UNIT	FREQUENCY	RANGE
764.7 Dec 2022	772.1 Sep 2022	304.2 Jun 1953	848.9 Mar 2021	%	quarterly	Dec 1951 - Dec 2022

happy? or worry 279.7% of CHina

No real economist outside of media is worried about china debt


They are only worried about china aging population, credit crunch in real estate and Chinese monopolization of power under president Xi

Since debt is easy to understand concept it's used in media propoganda..

So anyone talking about china debt is just tabloid trash

 

[dbc]

USA has much higher figure if you start counting credit card student loans and so on

US household debt is 15.24 Trillion USD. So the total US debt to GDP ratio is 200%.

China's LGFV's * are not included by Bloomberg if you add 7 trillion USD worth of LGFV's China's total debt to GBP ratio is well over 300%.

so no USA figures are not "much higher"

*LGFV's are loans made by banks to local governments

 

[beijingwalker]

 

[dbc]

United States Total Debt accounted for 764.7 % of the country's GDP in 2022, compared with the ratio of 772.1 % in the previous quarter. See the table below for more data.

That figure includes loans taken by private businesses if you include those numbers for China's then China's ratio will be well over 1000% points.

 

[beijingwalker]

Debt to GDP Ratio by Country 2023 - Wisevoter

The debt to GDP ratio is a measure that compares a country’s total debt to its gross domestic product (GDP). It provides an indication of a nation’s ability to repay its debts relative to the size of its economy. The debt to GDP ratio can serve as a metric for evaluating a country’s fiscal...

wisevoter.com

 

[beijingwalker]

And what makes China's debt different from other countries is that most big companies and almost all banks in China are state owned, China's debts are also China's assets.