BJP getting hammered in karnataka

[Bang Galore]

@Joe Shearer

Point taken. Btw, the most heartening bit of the Karnataka elections was the absolute walloping that the BJP received in South Canara. There more than anywhere else, the BJP was given a hiding for the crazy Hindutva & moral policing ideas. That too in the oldest stronghold of the BJP. Very, very satisfying that.

 

[arp2041]

The Karnataka election was a very big deal for the BJP no matter what kind of a brave face they put up. Karnataka was the state that sent the largest numbers of MP's for the BJP from any state in the whole of India, 19 MP's. Karnataka, not Gujarat, not Maharashtra, not MP. You remove that 19 seats & the BJP's tally comes down to double digits. Making up such a major loss is extraordinarily difficult & even if they do make it up elsewhere, they end up in the same position that they had in the present Lok Sabha.

It is not all lost for the BJP, Karnataka does have some pattern of voting differently for the LS & state elections. However the gap between the elections is way too close, less than a year & that will help the INC tremendously because people tend to still favour a fresh incumbent party and the BJP's second problem is to get candidates who might actually interest the electorate. This corrupt bunch won't do that.

1. You are taking the result of 2009 elections & trying to apply the same in the 2014 elections just to show how gloomy a picture this is for BJP (as if BJP will lose all 19 seats in LS-2014 from Karnataka, even if i apply the assembly result onto LS elections, BJP will atleast end up with 6-8 seats).

2. You are forgetting that if there was 5 years anti-incumbency in Karnataka than there is 10 Years anti-incumbency setting in at the Center.

3. If corruption was the core issue in Karnataka (which i accepted), than UPA-2 holds the distinction of being the most corrupt Govt. in the history of Independent India, wonder why the rules changes suddenly??

4. Also, i don't know why you are not looking into the survey given by India Today Group which i had posted in the earlier pages of the GE thread (they have taken into account the defeat of BJP in Karnataka, even than the overall tally for BJP is rising):

http://www.defence.pk/forums/centra...ian-general-elections-2014-a.html#post3914092

Overall prediction is for 200+ NDA, mind you, this is the survey done before 1+ year, in all probability the tally of NDA will only rise (as shown by previous IT survey) come 2014.

This survey is not done by me.

5. You said that you don't like either of the parties, fair enough, but i wonder if your tone will be similar in bashing Congress when in all probability, Congress will lose 4 out of 5 states (atleast 3 for sure, only consolation victory can be Mizoram) in Nov of this year?

I have no Problems with the affiliations the members have here, i just want that there should be some sort of neutrality/rationality/practicality maintained while discussing any election result.

 

[Bang Galore]

1. You are taking the result of 2009 elections & trying to apply the same in the 2014 elections just to show how gloomy a picture this is for BJP (as if BJP will lose all 19 seats in LS-2014 from Karnataka, even if i apply the assembly result onto LS elections, BJP will atleast end up with 6-8 seats).

I said it's a big deal, something that the BJP has to be worried about. I'm not about to get into the business of forecasting this early as to what will happen when general elections are held. The connection you draw about winning 6-8 seats may not work out if based on this mandate. The BJP has so badly imploded that it has won in different areas with small margins. Unlike the JD(S) which has a far more closer geographical grouping of seats won, the BJP doesn't & might result in a completely destructive performance.

2. You are forgetting that if there was 5 years anti-incumbency in Karnataka than there is 10 Years anti-incumbency setting in at the Center.

That rarely works. If people worried about governments in the centre as much as you suggest, parties like DNK & AIADMK, TDP, YSR Congress ,SP etc wouldn't get any support. If that was true, the very popular ABV & a decent performing NDA government (in2004) wouldn't have got the order of the boot. Over the last few general elections, it has simply become an aggregate of state elections. Only in the urban pockets and even there by a few, is that distinction made. Very unfortunate but true. The UPA will do badly in the elections but it will be state issues(especially like Andhra, Maharashtra etc) that will do the damage. It is the one reason that any & every analyst has been screaming from the rooftops that while Congress will do badly, the BJP might not be the beneficiary.

3. If corruption was the core issue in Karnataka (which i accepted), than UPA-2 holds the distinction of being the most corrupt Govt. in the history of Independent India, wonder why the rules changes suddenly??

What i said above. Unfortunate but true.

Overall prediction is for 200+ NDA, mind you, this is the survey done before 1+ year, in all probability the tally of NDA will only rise (as shown by previous IT survey) come 2014.

I somehow doubt that tally, maybe 180 for the NDA as a whole. Will require more support, not as easy & will be a terrible government.

5. You said that you don't like either of the parties, fair enough, but i wonder if your tone will be similar in bashing Congress when in all probability, Congress will lose 4 out of 5 states (atleast 3 for sure, only consolation victory can be Mizoram) in Nov of this year?

Oh I will. No one owns my support. I have no illusions about any of the parties.

I have no Problems with the affiliations the members have here, i just want that there should be some sort of neutrality/rationality/practicality maintained while discussing any election result.

No affiliation to any party at all,,voted for the BJP in the last Karnataka elections, voted against now. Among the non-BJP fans here, I'm about as neutral as you will get (atleast I like to think so)

 

[arp2041]

@Bang Galore expected a better response from you.

Your theory of National Election being "aggregate of state elections" is not completely TRUE, in a way you are questioning the Maturity of an average Indian Voter which is wrong.

If this was really true, than Congress wouldn't have end up with a Good LS tally in Gujarat, UP (Shocker), AP, etc. in the last election.

I stand by my argument (which will be proved in LS-2014, patience is the key) - People vote differently in State & General Elections, they just analyze where the tide is going.

Again, wait for a shock coming through Karnataka when it comes to GE, as much as People hated there the local Govt., People equally like Modi for the PM Job, though BJP may not end up with 19 seats, but it will end-up anywhere b/w 13-17 seats (Just getting a feeling, don't ask me for Proof, just wait for 2014 ).

+ Just to add, this election has shown that Yeddy as an Independent force is not that strong, in all probability, he may rejoin BJP or make an alliance with it for 2014.

 

[Joe Shearer]

@Joe Shearer

Point taken. Btw, the most heartening bit of the Karnataka elections was the absolute walloping that the BJP received in South Canara. There more than anywhere else, the BJP was given a hiding for the crazy Hindutva & moral policing ideas. That too in the oldest stronghold of the BJP. Very, very satisfying that.

Noticed, with enormous relief.

You know, of course, about the competitive raiding between Hindu bigots from this region into the Kasargod/Malabar region, and the raids by Muslim bigots back into this region, that was such a frightening feature of recent years. I put much of the responsibility for this at the doors of the Tablighis in Malabar, who have played only a negative role, far from their stated intention to purify practice and improve the standards of observance of religion, and on the Udupi Maths collectively.

There are personal reasons for huge relief. With both my wife and daughter currently in Bangalore, this means, I hope, an end to the collusive police administration that allowed a prominent south Kanara politician's SUV to track my daughter and her friends through the streets, abusing and threatening the girls every step of the way.

Good riddance to bad rubbish.

 

[Star Wars]

Noticed, with enormous relief.

You know, of course, about the competitive raiding between Hindu bigots from this region into the Kasargod/Malabar region, and the raids by Muslim bigots back into this region, that was such a frightening feature of recent years. I put much of the responsibility for this at the doors of the Tablighis in Malabar, who have played only a negative role, far from their stated intention to purify practice and improve the standards of observance of religion, and on the Udupi Maths collectively.

There are personal reasons for huge relief. With both my wife and daughter currently in Bangalore, this means, I hope, an end to the collusive police administration that allowed a prominent south Kanara politician's SUV to track my daughter and her friends through the streets, abusing and threatening the girls every step of the way.

Good riddance to bad rubbish.

They did what ? my condolences.....that is just downright pathetic.. I hope your daughter is fine...

 

[Star Wars]

edit: god i feel sick after reading joe's post...

 

[Awesome]

India can't find a better leader than MMS. This same India had no value 20 years back and today due to in large by the efforts of MMS it is the darling of everyone.

 

[Bang Galore]

@Bang Galore expected a better response from you.

Can only give my response, better/worse is left for others to decide.

Your theory of National Election being "aggregate of state elections" is not completely TRUE, in a way you are questioning the Maturity of an average Indian Voter which is wrong.

Never said it was completely true but it is true across the vast majority in non-urban areas and even partially in urban areas.

If this was really true, than Congress wouldn't have end up with a Good LS tally in Gujarat, UP (Shocker), AP, etc. in the last election.

Why not? The Congress tally in Gujarat was a partial protest vote against the Modi government(then), UP was against the BSP(the anti BSP vote getting split between SP & Cong), Andhra was a pro YSR vote, just like it will be a anti cong vote this time. Can you otherwise explain why the BJP got 19 seats in Karnataka? Do you mean to say that the people of Karnataka somehow saw the UPA as bad performing compared to the people of most other states including neigbouring Andhra ? It was simply on state factors alone. Do you believe the NDA government lost in 2004 because of its mistakes or because UP deserted BJP completely along with several other states?

I stand by my argument (which will be proved in LS-2014, patience is the key) - People vote differently in State & General Elections, they just analyze where the tide is going.

Well then we will just have to wait & watch.

Again, wait for a shock coming through Karnataka when it comes to GE, as much as People hated there the local Govt., People equally like Modi for the PM Job, though BJP may not end up with 19 seats, but it will end-up anywhere b/w 13-17 seats (Just getting a feeling, don't ask me for Proof, just wait for 2014 ).

The shock might well be to you. The BJP has been so totally destroyed in Karnataka that recovery will be slow & not easy. Unless the Congress government completely messes it up, the BJP's tally of 13-17 is improbable. Getting even 6-8 will be a herculean task because of the scattered vote. Its base has splintered badly. While Karnataka is known to vote differently, remember that a well thought of Krishna government was booted out in 2004 on a Atal Behari Vajpayee wave. Since you are offering no proof, we will just have to wait & watch. I'm no astrologer.

+ Just to add, this election has shown that Yeddy as an Independent force is not that strong, in all probability, he may rejoin BJP or make an alliance with it for 2014.

Will make no difference one way or the other. Yeddyurappa is a spent force. By the next election, he will be about as useful as Uma Bharathi or Kalyan Singh. The BJP will only lose support further inducting Yeddiyurappa. His base will rapidly decline now that he is not in the corridors of power. That is simply a fact that only those scrounging for scraps will fail to see.

 

[Jackdaws]

The Indian voter really needs a better choice - The smaller regional parties are the most corrupt of the lot - the same ones dreaming of a "third" front. The Congress is #2 in corruption and BJP is #3. I just wish there was another alternative, but there isn't. If they had any sense, at the end of the next election a BJP-Congress combine should form an interim national Government and do away with the Westminster style of democracy and introduce the American form of Presidential democracy. The smaller regional parties can get elected to Lok Sabha as well as to the Rajya Sabha. That way technocrats and academics can handle departments / ministries as directly appointees of the President rather than have corrupt politicians run ministries.

 

[Guynextdoor2]

Job only half done. I REALLY wanted to BJP to be butchered after the horrendous governance. Imagine flood relef was put on hold because Reddys and Yeddys wanted were fighting over politics!! But I hope congress puts up a good name, not some joker like Dharam Singh. And what on earth are those idiots doing giving Rahul Gandhi credit for Karnataka win!!

The Indian voter really needs a better choice - The smaller regional parties are the most corrupt of the lot - the same ones dreaming of a "third" front. The Congress is #2 in corruption and BJP is #3. I just wish there was another alternative, but there isn't. If they had any sense, at the end of the next election a BJP-Congress combine should form an interim national Government and do away with the Westminster style of democracy and introduce the American form of Presidential democracy. The smaller regional parties can get elected to Lok Sabha as well as to the Rajya Sabha. That way technocrats and academics can handle departments / ministries as directly appointees of the President rather than have corrupt politicians run ministries.

No thanks...

 

[Bang Galore]

There are personal reasons for huge relief. With both my wife and daughter currently in Bangalore, this means, I hope, an end to the collusive police administration that allowed a prominent south Kanara politician's SUV to track my daughter and her friends through the streets, abusing and threatening the girls every step of the way.

In Bangalore? Mangalore? I didn't think things were that bad & if this is of recent occurrence, even more shocking. Even the cops would have known that the BJP was on its way out.

 

[navtrek]

BJP fired a corrupt CM. They will lose Karnataka. If they had kept him, they'd have won.If voters don't care for corruption,who's to blame?

- Chetan Bhagat

We didnt vote for BJP because of Yeddurappa and bad governance. How can we vote for a party which has so many divisions within.

Congress is the best party in Karnataka that is why they got the full mandate. I voted for BJP last time then repented it big time
voted for the BJP this time to(because the candidate had done some really good work) the MLA of the area won but I always knew BJP will lose big time in the State.

 

[Jackdaws]

Job only half done. I REALLY wanted to BJP to be butchered after the horrendous governance. Imagine flood relef was put on hold because Reddys and Yeddys wanted were fighting over politics!! But I hope congress puts up a good name, not some joker like Dharam Singh. And what on earth are those idiots doing giving Rahul Gandhi credit for Karnataka win!!



No thanks...

And why would you be opposed to such a system?

 

[navtrek]

India can't find a better leader than MMS. This same India had no value 20 years back and today due to in large by the efforts of MMS it is the darling of everyone.

I agree on that it is because of him India is what it is. and also Indira Gandhi. Congress has given India some of its most charismatic leaders.