Beijing eyes bigger arms exports after Pakistan deal, experts say

[rockstar08]

Historically naval deals from China have never been officially conformed. This was what I read in one of the posts can't remember which.

dude its not some 1 or 2 chopper deal .. its 8 Subs , Billions of Dollar deal ..highly advance system , they will Officially announce it

 

[ACE OF THE AIR]

Thanks ...
i hope they get on time ... but i wonder they are getting 8 Subs , will that be like 1 in a year , or maybe 2 in a year .. and how many will be build in Pakistan ..

I think the deal was for two different types...

 

[rockstar08]

I think the deal was for two different types...

well Oscar just clear it , that its Either a Modified Song or Yuan class ... its definitely not Qing , which is sad

 

[SQ8]

Any news on other naval platforms.

Not too many. There is focus on UAV capability for ships, and certain SAM upgrades,

I think the deal was for two different types...

NO. Just the modified Song/ Yuan class.

well Oscar just clear it , that its Either a Modified Song or Yuan class ... its definitely not Qing , which is sad

Why is that sad or anyhing of that sort?
There was a requirement which the Yuan meets perfectly. Why go for something that is unnecessary and not suited.

 

[rockstar08]

Why is that sad or anyhing of that sort?
There was a requirement which the Yuan meets perfectly. Why go for something that is unnecessary and not suited.

i liked Qing , cause its more Advance than Yuan , if i am not wrong ?
i remember reading at thread about Qing sub ..

 

[RAMPAGE]

2017-2021 if all goes well.

So no SLBMs for now huh? I have feeling that its a seperate project that has something to do with Qing Class.

 

[ACE OF THE AIR]

Not too many. There is focus on UAV capability for ships, and certain SAM upgrades,


NO. Just the modified Song/ Yuan class.


Why is that sad or anyhing of that sort?
There was a requirement which the Yuan meets perfectly. Why go for something that is unnecessary and not suited.

UAV capability for ships is a good development. SAM upgrades are much needed they have always been neglected.

ISLAMABAD — Pakistan is renewing efforts to modernize its submarine arm with eight submarines from China as well as a search for surplus European submarines.

Navy and Defence Ministry officials revealed the plans to the National Assembly Standing Committee on Defence on Tuesday, with Economic Affairs Secretary Muhammad Saleem Sethi leaving for China to pursue the deal on Wednesday.

Analysts believe that since the National Security Committee has agreed to the deal in principle, it is likely to go ahead.

The officials also requested US $294 million to upgrade ATR-72 maritime patrol aircraft. Two un-upgraded aircraft are in service, and officials hope to acquire more.

Pakistan operates five French submarines.

Its two Agosta-70s were acquired in 1979 and 1980, respectively, and despite upgrades they are widely acknowledged by analysts to be well past their prime and in need of replacement. Three air-independent propulsion (AIP)-equipped Agosta-90Bs, which are a development of the Agosta-70s, were commissioned from 1999 onward.

The Navy requires 12 submarines laid out in the Armed Forces Development Plan (AFDP) 2015 and a later revised plan.

Tuesday's proceedings created some confusion, however, with officials telling the committee that surplus submarines had been pursued from France, Germany, and the UK, but later acknowledging France had refused Pakistan's approaches with concerns over transfer of technology as one example.

Brian Cloughley, previous Australian defense attache to Islamabad, has said France has simply abandoned the Pakistani defense market to focus on the far more lucrative Indian one.

The mention of the UK was also surprising, considering the UK has not built or operated conventional submarines since the early 1990s, and sold its four Upholder-class subs to Canada where they now serve as the Victoria class.

Cloughley believes the Germans may not be willing or able to supply any surplus submarines either as they do not seem to have any, or at least any that Pakistan would want.

German firms offer new Type-214, Type-209/1400 mod, and Type-210 mod submarines for export.

However, Cloughley said there may be other possibilities.

Germany partnered with Turkey in 2011 to offer Indonesia a lease/new-build deal for Type-209 submarines. Indonesia, however, selected the South Korean improved Chang Bogo, a development of the Type-209/1400.

Turkish industry officials have told Defense News they are ready to offer Pakistan Type-209s if asked.

Turkey, one of Pakistan's closest allies and strongest defense industry partners, shelved its plans to upgrade its six Type-209/1200 Atilay class subs with AIP systems in favor of acquiring the Type-214.

However, Pakistani defense industry officials have said Islamabad would prefer a newer design.

It is uncertain if present circumstances have forced a rethink. "It's all supposition, and I'm afraid there doesn't seem to be an answer," Cloughley said.

Pakistan almost signed a deal for three Type-214 subs in 2008, raises hopes of Pakistan-Turkish submarine cooperation.

However, analyst Haris Khan of the Pakistan Military Consortium think tank said the deal floundered on the issue of financing after the then-Pakistan People's Party-led government signed an IMF loan agreement that derailed the sub acquisition plans.

He said the Type-214 deal was the centerpiece of the naval aspect of the AFDP, and that the first submarine would have been delivered in 2015. The naval aspect of the AFDP especially is in total disarray, he said.

It is unknown if the Type-214 was shelved until finances become available (some industry officials believe this was at least the intention at the time the deal collapsed), but attention subsequently switched to acquiring six AIP-equipped submarines from China.

Due to the need to decommission the Agosta-70s, Khan believes any refurbished submarines will be required to be "sailing under a Pakistani flag within 12 months."

Acquiring Turkish Type-209s remains possible, and despite Pakistan's predicament, Khan says "Under the present circumstances I don't see any collaboration between Pakistan and Turkey since Pakistan will only be locally producing Chinese submarines."

Whether the Chinese submarines are the S-20 export derivative of the Type-039A/Type-041 Yuan-class submarine, or a bespoke design, is unclear. But the Yuan has also been mentioned, and according to government officials the deal was supposed to be secured by the end of 2014.

If the deal transpires, Khan said it will be the largest ever Sino-Pakistani deal. He believes the submarines will each cost $ 250 million to $325 million.

Neither the Ministry of Defence nor the Navy would shed further light when asked. No answers were forthcoming to requests regarding the timeframe of the deal, whether the two Agosta-70s will finally be retired now the number of planned Chinese submarines has increased to eight, clarification on acquiring surplus Western submarines, or the status of the Type-214 acquisition efforts.

Should the Chinese deal go through, it will be a considerable relief, and be especially significant for the nuclear deterrent.

Pakistan inaugurated its Naval Strategic Force Command in 2012 in response to India's rapid nuclearization.

A potential force of 8 AIP-equipped Chinese subs and the three Agosta-90Bs "is a quantum leap in existing capabilities," said Mansoor Ahmed of Quaid-e-Azam University's Department of Defence and Strategic Studies.

Though acknowledging nuclear-powered attack boats are far more capable, he believes "An AIP [diesel-electric submarine] offers Pak the best bang for the buck. But it has to be supplemented with a commensurate investment in [anti-submarine warfare] capabilities to neutralize developments on the Indian side."

He said this will lay the groundwork for having a permanent sea-based deterrent equipped with plutonium-based warheads fitted to cruise missiles, "which is expected to be the next major milestone in Pakistan's development of a triad."

Ahmed acknowledges this "would pose fresh challenges for ensuring effective and secure communications at all times with the submarines for both India and Pak in addition to having a mated-arsenal at sea that would require pre-delegation of launch authority at some level for both countries.

"This would be an altogether new challenge that would have to be addressed for an effective sea-based deterrent."

Nevertheless, AIP-equipped conventional submarines "provide reliable second strike platforms, [and] an assured capability resides with [nuclear-powered attack and nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines], which are technically very complex and challenging to construct and operate compared to SSKs, and also very capital intensive."


Pakistan To Buy 8 Submarines From China

So no SLBMs for now huh? I have feeling that its a seperate project that has something to do with Qing Class.

Yuan has a German engine so may be Pakistan is also going to get some German Subs that is the reason they have not gone for Qing Class.

 

[Donatello]

Hopefully, as the former DCNS(Projects) now VCNS put it.

They can do what they want. We are being pretty aggressive with South Korea and the defence links there have contributed to the JF. So from their PoV it is irrelevant. Additionally, quite a few statements from certain Indian generals would make Zaid Hamid blush.

True that.

DCNS was the French firm, right? So what is VCNS?
Or is it Deputy Chariman NS and Vice Chairman NS?

And where is that 294 million USD requested for the ATRs going? Certainly the systems for the aircraft cannot be that expensive. So are we acquiring any P3s for the lost ones on top of ATRs?

 

[Humble Analyst]

Well we do need second strike capability, especially due to lack of geographical depth to assure MAD. If Song/Yuan can do it and is quiet then it is fine, if not then why we have to get 8? India purchased Posiedon-P8s. That is a big threat to submarines in Indian ocean. Mirages will need help to protect Navy. We need better Air defense weapons on our surface vessels. The bottom line becomes economy I guess.

 

[ACE OF THE AIR]

True that.

DCNS was the French firm, right? So what is VCNS?
Or is it Deputy Chariman NS and Vice Chairman NS?

And where is that 294 million USD requested for the ATRs going? Certainly the systems for the aircraft cannot be that expensive. So are we acquiring any P3s for the lost ones on top of ATRs?

At present Pakistan Navy operates ATR72-500 . The 3 new ATR72-600 will be bought by the Navy as the production of 500 series has stopped. This would infect require the existing aircraft to get upgraded to this

ATR 72 ASW performs Anti-Submarine and Anti-Surface warfare, in addition to standard Maritime Patrol Capabilities. ATR 72 ASW is provided with sono-buoys launcher, Magnetic Anomaly Detector (MAD), Chaff and Flare, depth charge, torpedoes and antiship missiles. A Maritime Patrol version of ATR 72 is also available.

May be these are to replace the Atlantique.
Atlantique ATL3 Maritime Patrol Aircraft - Naval Technology

 

[SQ8]

True that.

DCNS was the French firm, right? So what is VCNS?
Or is it Deputy Chariman NS and Vice Chairman NS?

And where is that 294 million USD requested for the ATRs going? Certainly the systems for the aircraft cannot be that expensive. So are we acquiring any P3s for the lost ones on top of ATRs?

Deputy chief naval staff.

 

[sadiqqs]

PASAY NAHI HAA

 

[Donatello]

At present Pakistan Navy operates ATR72-500 . The 3 new ATR72-600 will be bought by the Navy as the production of 500 series has stopped. This would infect require the existing aircraft to get upgraded to this

View attachment 224738
ATR 72 ASW performs Anti-Submarine and Anti-Surface warfare, in addition to standard Maritime Patrol Capabilities. ATR 72 ASW is provided with sono-buoys launcher, Magnetic Anomaly Detector (MAD), Chaff and Flare, depth charge, torpedoes and antiship missiles. A Maritime Patrol version of ATR 72 is also available.

May be these are to replace the Atlantique.
Atlantique ATL3 Maritime Patrol Aircraft - Naval Technology

PN bought the ATRs used from a regional carrier. So they will need to go extensive modifications if MAD sensor has to be installed, like the one in the picture.

 

[ACE OF THE AIR]

PN bought the ATRs used from a regional carrier. So they will need to go extensive modifications if MAD sensor has to be installed, like the one in the picture.

They also require other modifications... These are worth it.
Still the F27's are being used and they are also to be replaced...when and with what remains a question.

 

[Donatello]

They also require other modifications... These are worth it.
Still the F27's are being used and they are also to be replaced...when and with what remains a question.

ATRs can be acquired for cheap prices, but the problem is the airlines that are willing to let go would've used those aircraft extensively on small regional routes, which means they would come with a lot of 'cycle count' on them.

So there has to be a compromise, because if you are replace the F27s with Used ATRs and installing new equipment, you would need to replace them again in few years time.