USA will not do that as it needs Pakistan at all levels to continue its presence in Afghanistan and Its not just about the supply lines. Militarily as well as intelligence sharing of US forces is connected with Pakistan through US central Command. There have been intelligence based operations which have bore fruits in the past for US. Past experience of Pakistan forces in the region as well as ISI's connections with locals is vital for US also.
whats more dangerous to Pakistan? A tweet or a full operation?
OBL raid was orchestrated to bring Pakistan into hot boiling water and brand it forever as a terrorist nation. After all, world's most wanted man was found and killed in an Army cantonment and just a few km away from PMA Kakul. The Pakistani leadership trusted the US leadership but was back stabbed. There are many theories behind it and every year new facts will come out. The important point is that leadership has changed now and outcome of every incident will be very different.
ISAF forces themselves control only a small portion of Afghanistan and that also around their bases which have been turned into heavily militarised fortresses. There is a vast piece of land in Afghanistan which is not under control of US/ISAF or Current Afghanistan Government. Such areas are used for militancy and buildup of militants who don't want to live under US/ISAF occupation neither accept Afghanistan Government. In such a case, no person in sane mind should think that pakistan's soil is being used for attacks in Afghanistan on US forces. Also, US drone attacks have taken place inside Pakistan's territory, so how would a militant think that he could be ever safe in Pakistan after crossing the border from Afghanistan. Somethings just don't add up even when you push it down the throat.
Pakistan started building up the wall to prevent attacks in its soil and for CPEC routes safety, which further frustrated the US as well as Afghan Government. Had Pakistan not been serious about cross border movement. the wall idea wouldn't have been born in the first place. This is a very solid step that Pakistan took to show its commitment towards curbing cross border movement. This wall is not just a decoration piece on the border, it will be manned with lethal force 24/7 which is why there are small fortresses being build up at varying distances from each other.
Capture of Yadav is an important milestone for Pakistan and he is being kept alive for some reason. His terrorising activities in Baluchistan and other parts of Pakistan is a proof that when labelling occurs, Pakistan cannot be the only one labelled as a terrorist nation.
After the demise of Libya, Egypt etc, three muslim countries have survived similar onslaught.
1. Syria, with Russian assistance and iran's.
2. Turkey, its leadership is strong.
3. Pakistan, due to Raheel shareef's leadership, its military and nuclear safety measures and other factors.
Iran and North Korea are still surviving even after decades of isolation and sanctions.
OBL raid didn't bring out the response that US expected, neither did the drone strikes. The frustration resulted in Salala attack. can another such attack be expected? yes and no. But primarily no because like i said before, the leadership (civilian and Military) has changed. The atmosphere has changed. The Pakistan's Government response to US harsh words and notices has become stern over time. Pakistan has got closer with Turkey and Russia. CPEC has made pakistan and China come closer as never before in history. Even PAF has let go of its favourite toy, F-16, over a strife of a few million dollars due to FMF hiccup.
Can the drone attacks be expected? yes. Will drone attacks save USA from the quagmire of Afghanistan? NO.
It now depends upon current Pakistani Government as to what frequency of drone attacks will they accept and digest. Will they counter the drones? Stealthy Drones can be brought down, if not by IR guided SAM then by laser guided SAM like RBS-70 in good weather conditions at least.
Afghanistan may see more turmoil and blood shed since few entities from Syria are pouring into Afghanistan, like ISIS, some 10,000 fighters. Russia is an anti-ISIS regime and has hunted them in the past in Syria. It would be a good time to ask Russia to step into the limelight again for assistance with Afghanistan. CPEC is important to China and the stability in Baluchistan has become utmost important to Pakistan after FATA ops.
At some stage, when the international community (China and maybe Russia and then others like Gulf countries) starts to step in, where their own interests in regards to Pakistan (e.g. CPEC for china, military relations for KSA/UAE) and the region's stability gets endangered, USA will need more diplomatic measures and policy shaping.
@Mentee @tps77
