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Bangladesh will pay 11 BILLION DOLLAR to Indian Adani group

Bangladesh will pay enough to build 3 Padma bridges as capacity payment to Adani

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INFRASTRUCTURE

Eyamin Sajid
07 June, 2022, 11:00 pm
Last modified: 08 June, 2022, 12:37 am

Three Padma Bridges, nine Karnaphuli River Tunnels or four metro rails: that is how many mega infrastructures Bangladesh can build with the money it is paying to the Indian Adani Group as capacity payment under a power purchase agreement (PPA).

Bangladesh will pay around $11.01 billion for importing 1,496 megawatts (MW) of electricity from Adani Godda 1,600 MW Thermal Power Plant over its 25 years of lifetime revealed a report co-published by the Bangladesh Working Group on External Debt (BWGED) and Indian Growthwatch.

"The amount for the capacity charge is nine times higher than the budget of Karnaphuli River Tunnel and more than four times than the Dhaka Metro Rail," said Hasan Mehedi, an author of the report and member secretary of the BWGED.


Since 2010-2011, Bangladesh Power Development Board (BPDB) has paid around $8.54 billion as capacity charges to independent power producers (IIPs) and rental and quick rental power plants owners.

"This power plant will be a huge burden on the Bangladesh economy. It doesn't make any sense to import coal power from India when Bangladesh is experiencing around 60% overcapacity now," Mehedi said.


On 2 June, at a citizen discussion held at the National Press Club, State Minister of Power Energy and Mineral Resources Nasrul Hamid, however, claimed that the country does not have overcapacity in electricity.

He said apart from captive power, the total installed capacity of power is around 21,000MW. But the capacity stands at 16,000 MW to 17,000MW if 10% for derated capacity and 10% for scheduled maintenance is excluded, whereas the current demand is around 14000MW.


Instead, we see capacity shortage if we consider 20% standby reserve margin.


The BPDB signed an agreement with Adani Group in November 2017 to offtake 1,496 MW power from its Godda Coal Power Plant under the cross-border electricity trade arrangement.

As per the agreement, the BPDB agreed to pay $0.038 or Tk3.26 per (kilowatt hour) kWh as capacity charge, higher than any other power plant in Bangladesh.


As per the report estimates, the cost of electricity from the Godda power plant will be at least tk9.09 per kWh, which is 56% higher than other imported electricity and 196% higher than solar power in India.

According to the BWGED and Growthwatch's report, the Adani Group may take $423.29 million as capacity charge per year, but the money will not benefit the Bangladeshi people.

In addition to that, the cost of electricity from the Godda Adani Group will increase by 5.5% per year, while the cost of solar power will be decreasing at a yearly rate of 10%.

At present, Bangladesh imports 1,160MW electricity from India through cross-border electricity trade agreements.

The first unit of 1600 MW is scheduled to start commercial operation by this July while the second unit will come online by December this year.

But the corresponding transmission line from Indo-Bangla border to Bangladeshi national grid has not been prepared yet.

Sources at the BPDB said that Bangladesh won't be able to receive the electricity until December this year.

Even if the transmission line were built by December 2022 according to the plan, Bangladesh will have to pay $141.10 million of capacity charges in four months only.

Md Mizanur Rahman Sarkar, project director at Rahanpur to Monakasha Border 400kV Transmission Line, told The Business Standard, "The physical work of the Bangladesh part of the project is almost completed. But transmission line in the Indian side has yet not been completed."

Sarkar, however, said that the power evacuation would be started within five to six months.

For evacuating electricity from the plant, 134 km (30km in Bangladesh side and 104km in Indian side) transmission line construction project was taken by both countries.



For comparison 11 billion USD is equal to a quarter to Bangaldesh forex reserves!!!
 
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Yearly payment of 400 mill$ to Adani, is equal to yearly repayment of Roppur nuclear plant.
Roppur created huge number of jobs, demand for construction material and will continue to provide jobs n clean energy for almost a century.


Not a like for like comparison.

The India deal includes all as BD gets 1.5GW for 400 million dollars a year. There is no further cost to BD for this electricity.

With Roopur the construction costs are nearly 13 billion US dollars but then it has to pay on top for fuel, operation and maintenance etc.
 
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Not a like for like comparison.

The India deal includes all as BD gets 1.5GW for 400 million dollars a year. There is no further cost to BD for this electricity.

With Roopur the construction costs are nearly 13 billion US dollars but then it has to pay on top for fuel, operation and maintenance etc.
There is a lot of conflicting reports. Some says we now have excess electricity capacity others are saying industry is still having problems securing electricity supply.

Nothing will happen without electricity. One assumes the cost will be recovered. The actual cost to the exchequer should be negative in real terms. Only commitment is to pay in dollar. BD should enter into a currency swap deal so it is paid in rupee/taka.
 
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There is a lot of conflicting reports. Some says we now have excess electricity capacity others are saying industry is still having problems securing electricity supply.
Yes Bangladesh does have excess electricity capacity. But most of it comes from oil and gas. Oil based plants operation are extremely costly. And gas is slowly running out and will be over soon if we don't discover new reserves. We faced shortages few months ago, that's what disrupted the electricity supply. That's why we have to import high cost LNG now.
 
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Yes Bangladesh does have excess electricity capacity. But most of it comes from oil and gas. Oil based plants operation are extremely costly. And gas is slowly running out and will be over soon if we don't discover new reserves. We faced shortages few months ago, that's what disrupted the electricity supply. That's why we have to import high cost LNG now.

A lot of electricity is generated by ad-hoc generators using oil.

Which is expensive and dangerous.

Electricity supply needs to be doubled to run the metro system, railways and three wheelers.

Schools and colleges also need air conditioning. Life is unbearable in the summer.

Children need much better environment to learn.

Refrigerated warehouses etc etc

List is endless.
 
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Yearly payment of 400 mill$ to Adani, is equal to yearly repayment of Roppur nuclear plant.
Roppur created huge number of jobs, demand for construction material and will continue to provide jobs n clean energy for almost a century.

Bangladesh made an agreement with their EU apparel buyers to reduce carbon footprint in power generation.

New powerplants need to possibly be carbon neutral, if at all.

There were plans for setting up at least 3 or 4 more huge supercritical technology coal plants like Rampal (delayed Indian Project) and Payra (1st phase already joined to the power grid).

However - Hasina govt. back tracked on those and is now concentrating on renewables like Wind and Solar. In fact 2nd Phase of Payra (Chinese Coal Plant) was also cancelled.
 
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A lot of electricity is generated by ad-hoc generators using oil.

Which is expensive and dangerous.

Electricity supply needs to be doubled to run the metro system, railways and three wheelers.

Schools and colleges also need air conditioning. Life is unbearable in the summer.

Children need much better environment to learn.

Refrigerated warehouses etc etc

List is endless.

Safer Mini Nuclear powerplant technology is available. Which is carbon neutral.



 
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There is a lot of conflicting reports. Some says we now have excess electricity capacity others are saying industry is still having problems securing electricity supply.

Nothing will happen without electricity. One assumes the cost will be recovered. The actual cost to the exchequer should be negative in real terms. Only commitment is to pay in dollar. BD should enter into a currency swap deal so it is paid in rupee/taka.


At this moment India may be reluctant to take Taka as they export 10 billion US dollars into BD and import around 2 billion US dollars from BD.

Hopefully if the trade deficit can rebalance with FTA and the more competitive BD industries in areas like as garments and home electronics start exporting huge volumes into India, then the Indians will be more inclined to do currency swaps.

At the least they should be willing to take part payment in Taka for this energy export.
 
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I don't think an FTA with India (which they are intently pushing for) is beneficial for Bangladesh.

We should be less dependent on Indian products, not more.

How will we grow our own industries and markets if India ships and sells everything here?

Their market is vast, their economies of scale are therefore way better than ours.

They never buy anything, they block our exports every chance they get. Our 2 Billion exports to India are a drop in the bucket for their economy. Let trade deficit wind down to zero, then we will talk.

Plus why should we finance their banyas who simply support Hindutva causes?

Some Bangladeshis are just ardent India-sycophants in Bangladesh and closet Modi supporters.

Again - Bangladesh and its market is not for sale.

Either India opens up their market completely to our exports and we wind down trade deficit to zero permanently, or no deal.

Its a fool's errand to believe Bangladesh is going to GAIN ANYTHING FROM AN FTA WITH INDIA....
 
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How will we grow our own industries and markets if India ships and sells everything here?



I think we have already had discussions on this before here.

India already has de-facto full access to BD market and so this FTA will just formalise it.


These are the major BD industries and we can compare with India:


1. Garments - BD wins.
2. Home electronics - BD wins as India does not even have anything themselves now and it is just foreign assembly jobs. Walton can easily handle them like it does Samsung and LG factories in BD.
3. Pharma - India ahead but not by much, especially with the API park being set up this year.
4. IT - Around equal and maybe BD has more dynamic smaller companies here.
5. Shipbuilding - BD exports more to India than the other way round.

Only major area where India has a real advantage is automobiles but BD simply has no industry here and does not want to build one.

How do you stop BD people buying cheap Indian automobiles while respecting the FTA?

You impose punitive VAT on these products and then job done.

Hasina knows exactly what she is doing by negotiating this FTA and remember BD exports to India are now the 4th largest in the world after USA, Germany and UK but growing far faster.
 
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Safer Mini Nuclear powerplant technology is available. Which is carbon neutral.




Rolls Royce’s mini reactors look the most promising.

Let us get up and running with roopur before we build anymore.

Adani is a good stopgap.
 
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I don't think an FTA with India (which they are intently pushing for) is beneficial for Bangladesh.

We should be less dependent on Indian products, not more.

How will we grow our own industries and markets if India ships and sells everything here?

Their market is vast, their economies of scale are therefore way better than ours.

They never buy anything, they block our exports every chance they get. Our 2 Billion exports to India are a drop in the bucket for their economy. Let trade deficit wind down to zero, then we will talk.

Plus why should we finance their banyas who simply support Hindutva causes?

Some Bangladeshis are just ardent India-sycophants in Bangladesh and closet Modi supporters.

Again - Bangladesh and its market is not for sale.

Either India opens up their market completely to our exports and we wind down trade deficit to zero permanently, or no deal.

Its a fool's errand to believe Bangladesh is going to GAIN ANYTHING FROM AN FTA WITH INDIA....

You are just too pessimistic!

You still haven’t told me which other country can give us the export size that India is providing?

Definitely not Indonesia or Turkey.

Not even China.

You should not let your concern for vile Hinduvta cloud your judgement.
 
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You are just too pessimistic!

You still haven’t told me which other country can give us the export size that India is providing?

Definitely not Indonesia or Turkey.

Not even China.

You should not let your concern for vile Hinduvta cloud your judgement.


It's fine as too many BD posters are stuck in 2012 and not looking at 2022.

They have not latched onto the fact that India now sees BD as a pretty much a peer in S Asia at least in terms of the economic front.

This FTA will accelerate the trend of growing BD exports to India and I actually think that BD may even grow its exports to India more in absolute terms than imports from India till 2030.

At the end of the day, what Hasina wants is what BD does and that is ok with me.
 
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It's fine as too many BD posters are stuck in 2012 and not looking at 2022.

They have not latched onto the fact that India now sees BD as a pretty much a peer in S Asia at least in terms of the economic front.

This FTA will accelerate the trend and I actually think that BD may even grow its exports to India more in absolute terms than imports from India till 2030.

At the end of the day, what Hasina wants is what BD does and that is ok with me.

I think the people in BD see the darker side of Hinduvta and are rightly concerned about too much entanglement.

Hasina needs to be cognisant of their concern.

Definitely should not take loans from India. And should not let them build critical and strategic infrastructure.
 
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