Bangladesh -- the best kept secret of Asia

[CaPtAiN_pLaNeT]

Skies, thanks for painstickingly collect these data and post it. Arguments I have made from the beginning (and eastwatch for that matter) proved by stat you posted. But for people like Sami its hype is more important than living in reality and very quick to call people name when you point the obvious.

Did you read any of my post.... Or just busy to promote your agenda all the time.... Here 1st issue was that east watch was saying that even with 12 percent growth rate Bangladesh will not be able to get a trillion dollar economy....even in 30 years.... So I had to show him all the calculation....

2nd thing DCCI said that in terms of PPP Bangladesh will get 1 trillion dollar economy by 2030.... N will be 1 of the 30 top economy..... To achieve that Bangladesh needs only 7 to 7.5 percent GDP growth.....which is not out of range type growth....


But in nominal term that will lead to a GDP of around 500 billion dollar... They calculated also GDP in nominal terms for 8, 10 and 12 percent average GDP growth.... They were saying that 8 to 10 percent average GDP growth is achievable... But 12 percent is highly ambitious....but achievable... By solving all the challenges is there.... They said very clearly.... Without solving electricity problem, infrastructure development.... Necessary reform it is not possible.... Right now Bangladesh has a unique opportunity to achieve this.... If this time Bangladesh fail it will not be able to achieve it in decades...


So, it was not a mare hype...while talking about opportunities they also talked about the challenges...

N regarding eastwatchs assessment he himself said his formula was wrong.... N to show him and integra graphically projected GDP under different growth rate I have shown the 1st 4 graph....


N you just come out of your jamat, rajakar and Pakistan praising and while painting bad Bangladeshi picture all the time.... No 1 said this is absolute certain scenario but said it's achievable target if lots of hard work is done and all the obstacle is removed....

N regarding skies graph I forgot to add 1 thing.... Those country already had a high per capital GDP... So it is quite natural to grow slowly.... If possible see the projected growth rate of India or vietnam..... For India it is I'd it will be 30 trillion dollar economy from 1.3 trillion now in 20 years.... Just let me know how's that is possible then.... Same also the case for Vietnam.... Indonesia is projected to be 9 trillion dollar economy by 2030 from 600 billion today.... Even though these values are based on dollar value of 2030... For the case of bd it was projected based on present dollar value..

 

[idune]

^^^^Same boaring awmi line, accuse anyone war criminal, jammati what not. Even TIB an intl organization being accused of working for war criminals, what else can be expected from an awami penny pusher.

 

[eastwatch]

It is very strange that some people think it is Bible whenever DCCI or some other Forum discussions say about the prospect of BD economy in the next 30 or 40 years. There are many 'if's. The largest 'if' is the 12% growth forecast. It is not an achievable target for a country like Bangladesh where the country is still in the PREPARATORY stage of development.

A few pockets of development here and there is not a ticket to fast forward to the stage of a matured economy. The country lacks all the ingredients to become an industrially developed country in such a short time. Social and physical infrastructures such as roads, bridges, rail roads is underdeveloped. This country cannot build itself and with its own money even a medium-sized bridge. It has no base to produce capital machineries. It cannot even produce the needles for the sewing machines.

Now, some discussion group come out with a hypothesis that the country is going to achieve a 12% growth from tomorrow, and BD will become a $1 trillion GDP in the next 20 years. But, this country lacks all the ingredients even to sustain the present 6% growth. Not only that it cannot construct the equipments for its own power plants and other factories, but it also cannot manufacture a nut and a bolt to fix two steel plates.

People here seems to be making a parallel of Indian economy with our own. But, India has started its development since after 1857. Punjab became the bread basket of India only because the British govt initiated the development of agriculture in Punjab and areras surrounding this Province at that time. In 1947, today's India had already more than 45,000 km of rail lines. It is about 60,000 km now.

BD had probably 3,000 km in 1947. Now, the length is less than that. BD govt wants Indian railway engineers to develop our rail lines. India produces locomotives, BD imports from it. There are hundred other things that can be said about Indian economy, how high it is. India is still a poor country, but it is a technologically advanced country.

It is advanced since the early 1900s when many of the big names like TATA, Birla came into existence, whereas we started only in 1947 when there was only one factory in the entire BD. It was a textile mill named Mohini Mills, locted in Kushtia.

Today's poor but technologically advanced India will become a medium income country in the next 15 years, and after another 10 to 20 years they will become a technologically advanced and a rich country. This is possible because Indian economy is quite matured and is now showing all the symptons of a fast-track growth.

In case of BD, I will be happy to see if this country can keep on growing @6 per anum for the next 5 years. I also wish BD to produce at least the NEEDLES that are used in the sewing machines that stiches our garments. Only a wishful thinking based on imaginations will certainly not propel the country to a $1 trillion in the next 20 or 30 years. It is a target very easy to say, but is very difficult to achieve.

 

[CaPtAiN_pLaNeT]

Regarding skies graphs for Canada, india and south Korea..... If any one look closely they will find the following picture...

Canada crossed the 1trillion dollar mark in 2004 from 100 billon dollar mark which was in 1972.... But do not forget Canada has one of the highest per capital GDP and it's population base is very small... So it's quite natural for it ....not having a growth rate of around 8 to 10 percent...

But if you look closely from 2002 to 2008 economy grew so dramatically from 700 billion to 1.5 trillion.

For the case of India there were almost no growth from 1975 to 1992.... But look from 1992 how quickly it's economy grew and crossed 1 trillion dollar mark in 2006 from 200 billion mark in 1992.

For the case of south Korea.. Just look how quickly it's economy grew from 1998 to 2007.... N look at the growth rate from 1986 to 2006 ... This is the time when it crossed 1 trillion dollar mark from 100 billion dollar mark in 1986....

 

[CaPtAiN_pLaNeT]

It is very strange that some people think it is Bible whenever DCCI or some other Forum discussions say about the prospect of BD economy in the next 30 or 40 years. There are many 'if's. The largest 'if' is the 12% growth forecast. It is not an achievable target for a country like Bangladesh where the country is still in the PREPARATORY stage of development.

A few pockets of development here and there is not a ticket to fast forward to the stage of a matured economy. The country lacks all the ingredients to become an industrially developed country in such a short time. Social and physical infrastructures such as roads, bridges, rail roads is underdeveloped. This country cannot build itself and with its own money even a medium-sized bridge. It has no base to










produce capital machineries. It cannot even produce the needles for the sewing machines.

Now, some discussion group come out with a hypothesis that the country is going to achieve a 12% growth from tomorrow, and BD will become a $1 trillion GDP in the next 20 years. But, this country lacks all the ingredients even to sustain the present 6% growth. Not only that it cannot construct the equipments for its own power plants and other factories, but it also cannot manufacture a nut and a bolt to fix two steel plates.

People here seems to be making a parallel of Indian economy with our own. But, India has started its development since after 1857. Punjab became the bread basket of India only because the British govt initiated the development of agriculture in Punjab and areras surrounding this Province at that time. In 1947, today's India had already more than 45,000 km of rail lines. It is about 60,000 km now.

BD had probably 3,000 km in 1947. Now, the length is less than that. BD govt wants Indian railway engineers to develop our rail lines. India produces locomotives, BD imports from it. There are hundred other things that can be said about Indian economy, how high it is. India is still a poor country, but it is a technologically advanced
country.

It is advanced since the early 1900s when many of the big names like TATA, Birla came into existence, whereas we started only in 1947 when there was only one factory in the entire BD. It was a textile mill named Mohini Mills, locted in Kushtia.

Today's poor but technologically advanced India will become a medium income country in the next 15 years, and after another 10 to
20 years they will become a technologically advanced and a rich country. This is possible because Indian economy is quite matured and is now showing all the symptons of a fast-track growth.

In case of BD, I will be happy to see if this country can keep on growing @6 per anum for the next 5 years. I also wish BD to produce at least the NEEDLES that are used in the sewing machines that stiches our garments. Only a wishful thinking based on imaginations will certainly not propel the country to a $1 trillion in the next 20 or 30 years. It is a target very easy to say, but is very difficult to
achieve.

Why you are just after 12 percent GDP growth... That is just a case like other GDP growth rate of 8 or 10 percent....

DCCI said mainly 1 trillion dollar economy based on ppp..... Which is also mentioned in this article.... To achieve that Bangladesh need around 7 to 7.5 percent GDP growth... Not a big or imaginary target....

N for Indian example it is true... That is what I said to the Indian when they try to compare India and Bangladesh.... But also try to compare other countries which were almost in the. Same position like Bangladesh... Two example is Vietnam and Indonesia.... Have you seen how quickly vietnams economy is growing... Indonesia is also about to pick up... If they can do that bd should also do that by taking example from them... If it can not then it will be a big shame for bd....

Bangladesh slowly moving towards manufacturing based economy... I know it will take time.... But I did not like your example of niddle when bd is about to become a ship building hum and also about to produce car in bd..... Try to think positive.... If you do not have a target you will not be able to achieve anything.... If you target for 6 percent you will end up getting. 4 to 5 percent.... If not 12 percent I would be happy to see 8 to 10 percent GDP growth on an average... Which is also the projection of bd government to achieve 8 percent GDP growth....


Only time will say what is going to happen next...

 

[TopCat]

Regarding skies graphs for Canada, india and south Korea..... If any one look closely they will find the following picture...

Canada crossed the 1trillion dollar mark in 2004 from 100 billon dollar mark which was in 1972.... But do not forget Canada has one of the highest per capital GDP and it's population base is very small... So it's quite natural for it ....not having a growth rate of around 8 to 10 percent...

But if you look closely from 2002 to 2008 economy grew so dramatically from 700 billion to 1.5 trillion.

For the case of India there were almost no growth from 1975 to 1992.... But look from 1992 how quickly it's economy grew and crossed 1 trillion dollar mark in 2006 from 200 billion mark in 1992.

For the case of south Korea.. Just look how quickly it's economy grew from 1998 to 2007.... N look at the growth rate from 1986 to 2006 ... This is the time when it crossed 1 trillion dollar mark from 100 billion dollar mark in 1986....

Thats the catch... People always get carried away with those arithmatic numbers that I shown ealier that economic well being does not follow smooth curve of arithmatic. As the economy changes its phase so does other variables with it. When we calculated a economy based on some variables today it completely changes in the course of time.

For instance we rebased our economy in 1996 and only 15 sectors were considered for the calculation. in 2011 we will be rebasing the economy again and the BBS will take 10 more sectors making it 25 sectors base calculation. The volume of economy what you are seeing now will be 30-40% more next year. That means in a single year we will be seeing 40% growth of our economy. I hope you guys understand now.


cheers..

 

[TopCat]

@eastwatch,
I understand your assessment regarding India as you claimed it to be the techonologically advanced country. But compare that with Russia, which is more advance yet stuck in the middle income country. Its not technology which is driving India's economy forward rather it is it's huge manpower and expanding domestic market and FDI making its the fast growing economy. India will need 100 more years to compete with countries like America, Russia, or Germany or Japan in the field of technology.

Regarding Bangladesh, no we dont need nano technology or a space program to make it a country as par with Korea. Only textile, ship building, automobiles, footware, pharmaceuticals, electronics can make it a developed country. Backward linkage industry will follow suit once there is a market here.
And yes Bangladesh does produce needles if you did not know.

 

[Skies]

Regarding skies graphs for Canada, india and south Korea..... If any one look closely they will find the following picture...

Canada crossed the 1trillion dollar mark in 2004 from 100 billon dollar mark which was in 1972.... But do not forget Canada has one of the highest per capital GDP and it's population base is very small... So it's quite natural for it ....not having a growth rate of around 8 to 10 percent...

But if you look closely from 2002 to 2008 economy grew so dramatically from 700 billion to 1.5 trillion.

For the case of India there were almost no growth from 1975 to 1992.... But look from 1992 how quickly it's economy grew and crossed 1 trillion dollar mark in 2006 from 200 billion mark in 1992.

For the case of south Korea.. Just look how quickly it's economy grew from 1998 to 2007.... N look at the growth rate from 1986 to 2006 ... This is the time when it crossed 1 trillion dollar mark from 100 billion dollar mark in 1986....

Hmm, you are saying that after a certain time Canada, India and S. Korea took very short time to build 1T of GDP. Yes, the graphs are saying so, but I think it took a long time to reach that point from where these countries took short time to achieve a GDP of 1T. So, I also think BD will also take long time (= to build infrastructures, may be longer than those countries for our political division) to reach that point from where BD will take shorter time to touch 1T-GDP. Another thinng is, you are saying Canada had less population, then why India took long time (31 years) after having huge population. Also I do not think Chittagone high way will contribute strongly in our GDP. Will the rate of vehicles and product container movement increase immediately in that highway without increasing internal industrial production and demand?

Now let me say something negative: I heard to say some people like teacher of DU (neither any AL nor BNP or Jamat supporters) that there will be no existence BD (may be economically) after 30 years. I saw six years ago in newspaper that there would be no Pakistan after 20 years which was predicted by US/EU. Did anyone think before 2005 that Pakistan will have to face today's condition? Were the Talibans against PK before as like as today? We can see that along with PK's own mistakes PK also has to face a lot of foreign conspiracies today. Who know that BD will not face foreign conspiracies in future which may even halt the economic growth? I am pessimist after seeing that our projects like Text book and Flyover are not doing by ourselves but we did these before.

Another thing is, everyone's economy changes with time. Our forefathers were not as rich as we are today. In that way, BD will also develop if the time elapses. It's not any surprise to me. I will not be excited if BD will achieve 1T-GDP after 20 or 30 years. But I will be happy to see if there will be no difference in technology and per capita income with India and Middle East countries with BD respectively after 20 or 30 years.

 

[eastwatch]

@eastwatch,
And yes Bangladesh does produce needles if you did not know. [/B]

Yet, it imports the sewing macine needles from Japan (expensive now-a-days), China and Korea probably. I do not know if India also supplies us the same or not. Production of a low quality good internally cannot be a source of pride. If our product is of high quality, then other countries could not have exported it to us.

By the way, Needdle was used by me as a symbol to make a point. When I go to cheap $1~$5 shops in Japan, I see many thousands of houshold goods in these shops. Most are produced in China. A visit is mind-boggling. There are so many varieties of household goods! But, BD is not producing a single one of them!

This is why I think BD is nowhere near to become an industrial or a technological giant anytime soon. It will take another 20 or 30 years before BD can become so. BD will probably know at that time how to produce machineries. Note that since about 50 years ago India is able to produce many of its machineries, but we cannot do it even now.

Not a fary tale 12% growth, I just wish BD to hold on with its present 6% growth in the coming years.

 

[LOLLOLLOL]

Stinky country "best Asia"
dumb IQ 81 loser~~

 

[CaPtAiN_pLaNeT]

Stinky country "best Asia"
dumb IQ 81 loser~~

I think this is another indian troll opened up account with chinese and american flag.... mod should take appropriate action against such bigot...

 

[Maira La]

I think this is another indian troll opened up account with chinese and american flag.... mod should take appropriate action against such bigot...

 

[Rajkumar]

I think this is another indian troll opened up account with chinese and american flag.... mod should take appropriate action against such bigot...

?????? why so certain

 

[Abu Zolfiqar]

whatever happens, regardless of what people say or opine, I wish the best of luck to Bangladesh and her peoples

 

[Skies]

Regarding Bangladesh, no we dont need nano technology or a space program to make it a country as par with Korea. Only textile, ship building, automobiles, footware, pharmaceuticals, electronics can make it a developed country. Backward linkage industry will follow suit once there is a market here.
And yes Bangladesh does produce needles if you did not know.

India reduced its satellite launching cost by half to get more revenue. They are charging $10,000 per kg of payload now. But a typical satellite launch cost is around $4,000 - $20,000 per kg of payload where the cost varies for different countries. If any other country charges $20,000 then India is charging 50% less than them. Here we can see that India is not rich country but invested a lot for space program and now they are charging far less than other space agencies to lunch foreign satellites. Since BD has huge unused talent people, so BD should think about that business in future which may be profitable.

And about nano-tech, BD should think about making computer accessories like processor in future. Since BD has large population, so if I had power then I would say TOYOTA and Intel that you can not sell your products in BD without having your own manufacturing plants here. Then our people would get job, tech and products in low cost. lolzzzzz