Bangladesh only required 7.5% year on year GDP growth upto 2030 to achieve that target of 1 trillion dollar economy in terms of PPP and 12% to reach 1 trillion dollar economy in terms of nominal under present dollar value.
No Sir, even with a 7.5% growth in the next few years and a 12% growth afterward, it is not possible to take our present $110 billion GDP to $1 trillion. All the technological, (social and physical) infrastructural, organizational and R&D ingredints are missing in the assumtion that BD economy will grow by 12% or even by 8%.
These rates are absurd when considered in terms of reality. BD economy is still based on agriculture and a low-tech RMG. Both these sectors will stop further growing in the next few years. Agriculture - because more lands are not available, high breed seeds are already available, and fertilizer demands have been fulfilled either by domestic production or by import.
RMG - too much export projection of this low-tech commodity cannot be materialized. Labour salaries may go up and BD currency value may go up against dollar, say, to Tk55 per dollar. These two factors may cause to double the prices of RMG products. Other new countries may pop up to take the opportunity and take away the market from us. This is already happening to China and india.
In case of these two countries, they have already developed heavy industries. So, they do not have to worry about cheap RMG products of BD slicing into their international market. But, BD has failed yet to build its heavy industries. Even its power sector is so weak.
Pakistan's installed power capacity is 24,000 MW. But, BD's present capacity is less than 4,000 MW. When we develop this sector, only then the industrialists will come forward with heavy industries led by steel manufacturing.
Please take note of the formula written below to calculate GDP in any year in the future:
log100 + n.log(1 + x) = logP
whereby,
100 = you can write 110, because it is our present GDP
n = number of yrs. If it is 2030, then n=(2030-2010)=20
1= a Constant
x = percent of growth, for your assumed 12%, it is 0.12
P = the GDP after n=20 yrs or in 2030
If you have an engineering calculator you can easily find out the reality. I think, even in that exaggerated rate of 12% per anum from this year, the GDP will not be anything near $1 trillion. It will reach only $350 billion. Newspaper people and many of our economic theorists should be taught how to handle a compound calculation. They think and write so many imaginations.
Note that, even if the economy grows at 10% per year, the GDP will be $600 billion after 40 years. However, if the currency becomes stronger by, say, 30%, the figure will be $780 billion.
