I am posting only a part of article that appeared in the Daily Star. Please click the link to get the entire article. - @bluesky -
https://www.thedailystar.net/frontpage/bangladesh-budget-2018-19-lofty-goals-fragile-base-1588228
12:00 AM, June 08, 2018 / LAST MODIFIED: 03:12 AM, June 08, 2018
Lofty goals, fragile base
Muhith unwraps yet another fat budget, hopes for a magical turnaround amid poor implementation record
Inam Ahmed and Shakhawat Liton
It looks like another repeat story.
We had a big budget that failed to achieve its targets. Now we are pushing for a bigger one with higher targets. But with the ground reality remaining the same, are we to see a story foretold for the next year?
This is one way of looking at Finance Minister AMA Muhith's proposed budget for the 2018-19 fiscal year.
Many would agree that an 18.3 percent increase of the proposed budget is neither huge nor ambitious. But then if one considers that we are having one of the lowest annual development programme implementation this year, or that this year's tax revenue collection has really fallen flat, the new targets may look rosy but inherently unrealistic and ambitious.
The budget story now increasingly resembles what Harvard economist Lant Pritchett had called “isomorphic mimicry” -- a term coined from the natural world where animals and plants assume a look that actually defies their reality.
In natural world, a harmless butterfly may look like a ferocious animal to gain an evolutionary advantage. And when this is applied in economics and development theories, it represents a “technique of successful failure”. Figures and facts are presented in a way that falsely gives a glowing picture, belying the reality.
The budget story also exposes the constant “capability trap” or the “big stuck” that the country's economy is mired in. Our poor implementation capability is being exposed by the day, starkly and absolutely, as the figures show.
This year's ADP implementation so far is a meagre 52.42 percent, meaning we have to finish up the rest 48 percent job in the next three weeks, an impossible task. Our tax-GDP ratio has barely crossed 7 percent when the original target was 13 percent. Revenue growth is only 17 percent when we need a 30 percent plus acceleration to accomplish the job at hand, another distant dream.
Yet, the finance minister in his budget speech has claimed the government's “enviable capacity” for rapid implementation of socio-economic development plans.
https://www.thedailystar.net/frontpage/bangladesh-budget-2018-19-lofty-goals-fragile-base-1588228
12:00 AM, June 08, 2018 / LAST MODIFIED: 03:12 AM, June 08, 2018
Lofty goals, fragile base
Muhith unwraps yet another fat budget, hopes for a magical turnaround amid poor implementation record
Inam Ahmed and Shakhawat Liton
It looks like another repeat story.
We had a big budget that failed to achieve its targets. Now we are pushing for a bigger one with higher targets. But with the ground reality remaining the same, are we to see a story foretold for the next year?
This is one way of looking at Finance Minister AMA Muhith's proposed budget for the 2018-19 fiscal year.
Many would agree that an 18.3 percent increase of the proposed budget is neither huge nor ambitious. But then if one considers that we are having one of the lowest annual development programme implementation this year, or that this year's tax revenue collection has really fallen flat, the new targets may look rosy but inherently unrealistic and ambitious.
The budget story now increasingly resembles what Harvard economist Lant Pritchett had called “isomorphic mimicry” -- a term coined from the natural world where animals and plants assume a look that actually defies their reality.
In natural world, a harmless butterfly may look like a ferocious animal to gain an evolutionary advantage. And when this is applied in economics and development theories, it represents a “technique of successful failure”. Figures and facts are presented in a way that falsely gives a glowing picture, belying the reality.
The budget story also exposes the constant “capability trap” or the “big stuck” that the country's economy is mired in. Our poor implementation capability is being exposed by the day, starkly and absolutely, as the figures show.
This year's ADP implementation so far is a meagre 52.42 percent, meaning we have to finish up the rest 48 percent job in the next three weeks, an impossible task. Our tax-GDP ratio has barely crossed 7 percent when the original target was 13 percent. Revenue growth is only 17 percent when we need a 30 percent plus acceleration to accomplish the job at hand, another distant dream.
Yet, the finance minister in his budget speech has claimed the government's “enviable capacity” for rapid implementation of socio-economic development plans.