Bangladesh GDP 286 billion USD, Per capita 1,733 USD in 2018.

[bluesky]

Samsung and and LG both announced they will open plants in BD to manufacture their products. These are two huge tech companies so It's a good sign.

No country ever developed with only the participation of foreign money. BD people lack knowledge, technology, experience and capital to do any important job by themselves. BD people cannot even design or manufacture a machine today, while it is being done in India. How do you guys expect it to continue to grow? It will take many more decades (or Centuries) to learn from others. Once, there are capable people and companies in BD like India has, it will be possible to start real progress.

However, I must say that the participation of Korean companies proves the potentiality of BD economy. However, one plant here and another plant there are not enough for a country, when it needs not hundreds, but many thousands of small, medium and large manufacturing plants. Do you really think, foreign companies will ever participate in that large scale?

 

[Nilgiri]

Someone pls do a micro analysis of Nilgiri's lengthy data driven post and make a short summary if possible. I couldn't read it after first couple of lines since it was way too long for me

That cute avatar lol...who's a good boy....who's a good boy, you are!

My post basically says:

a) BD is not tiger asian economy by any stretch

b) Its release of consistent quality data is sketchy at best (thus projections/validations are somewhat meaningless)

c) Even quarters in BD are now questioning the reliability/accuracy of BBS (esp for all this rebasing that people are copy pasting here will add a magical level increase to BD economy), given say household income data discrepancy

d) BD will have this "margin of under-standards" in play for quite some more time, affecting re-basing exercise AND a number of other important things. It has to reform to make meaningful change rather than perpetuate the same old status quo of using ignorance/data-paucity buffers.

Let us see who is right. IMF tends to predict less than actual growth mostly for BD.

IMF has more or less been spot on w.r.t BBS (given that is the only real source of data for BD). Real growth of BD has been around 6.5 - 7% for last decade, more or line in with the BBS claims.

286 bn with 8% in 10 years = 617 bn

and you are talking about 1 Trillion by10 years?!!!!!!!!!

For 1 Trillion, you will need 13.4% growth for next 10 years.

Formula: GDP x (1+(Rate/100))^Year

You guys want to show things bigger intentionally to support BAL, let alone the credibility of BBS.

You should do the analysis for Taka only. These people here have little to no understanding on nominal USD effects...combined with them thinking its some be all end all measure (just because the PPP multiplier for BD sucks thanks to BD govt inflation laundering in BBS).

India grew by 15% in nominal USD terms in one year (from 2016 to 2017)...quite different from the estimate IMF churned out initially (And confirms earlier because its SDDS standard) ....adding almost 1 and a half Bangladeshes apparently about 340 billion USD (from 2.27 trn to 2.611 trn)....no way we were growing by that rate in real terms (Esp PPP which matters the most).

Another thing you can tell these quite dumb people here is that IMF has BD shaded still as an estimate for 2017 still (261 billion claim), forget about 2018 level being blah blahed about here....it is a projection, not an accomplishment. Last "vetted" figure for BD by IMF is still 2016 which stands at 235 billion USD.

https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2018/01/weodata/weorept.aspx?pr.x=39&pr.y=7&sy=2013&ey=2023&scsm=1&ssd=1&sort=country&ds=.&br=1&c=513,534&s=NGDPD&grp=0&a=

 

[fallstuff]

Congratulation to all the hard working people. I also would like to thank the BD people in the ME sending their money to BD earned by backbreaking work. Thanks also to the ladies working in the garments industry.

 

[24 Hours]

No country ever developed with only the participation of foreign money. BD people lack knowledge, technology, experience and capital to do any important job by themselves. BD people cannot even design or manufacture a machine today, while it is being done in India. How do you guys expect it to continue to grow? It will take many more decades (or Centuries) to learn from others. Once, there are capable people and companies in BD like India has, it will be possible to start real progress.

However, I must say that the participation of Korean companies proves the potentiality of BD economy. However, one plant here and another plant there are not enough for a country, when it needs not hundreds, but many thousands of small, medium and large manufacturing plants. Do you really think, foreign companies will ever participate in that large scale?

The main point is that it's a start. Smartphone was really announced last year. Garments got us a long way. Not saying the economy is invincible but it's something to look forward too.

 

[Tanveer666]

(1)BD people lack knowledge, technology, experience and capital to do any important job by themselves.BD people cannot even design or manufacture a machine today

Regarding point 1, i completely agree with you. The education system is more or less FUBAR, and brain drain is only exacerbating the problem.

 

[TopCat]

No country ever developed with only the participation of foreign money. BD people lack knowledge, technology, experience and capital to do any important job by themselves. BD people cannot even design or manufacture a machine today, while it is being done in India. How do you guys expect it to continue to grow? It will take many more decades (or Centuries) to learn from others. Once, there are capable people and companies in BD like India has, it will be possible to start real progress.

However, I must say that the participation of Korean companies proves the potentiality of BD economy. However, one plant here and another plant there are not enough for a country, when it needs not hundreds, but many thousands of small, medium and large manufacturing plants. Do you really think, foreign companies will ever participate in that large scale?

Commercial grade technology and knowledge is not free. You need primary capital to buy these kind of technology. Garments/Textile industry was a means of gaining those capitals and creating entrepreneurs. It will take at least another decade before people will start investing on technology intensive businesses. For instance a semiconductor industry requires billions of dollar of investment. If you can bring me at 3 billion dollar I will set you up the factory, dont worry about the knowledge and technology.

 

[Homo Sapiens]

Can you just cite the ingredients n BD economy that can push the economy further? I find, no robust sector except textiles. So, please explain your expectations of future robust growth, why do you think so? You cannot grow a national economy just by wishing.

Don't you find leather industry in Bangladesh a robust one? We are exporting 1 billion dollar leather goods after fulfilling the demand of 165 million people.Another billion is coming from IT sector.IT sector is about to take off.Same with electronics.Home grown Walton and others and opening plants of LG,Samsung is creating a fertile ground for rapid growth of Electronics sector.Similarly RFL and other native plastics companies are supplying most of the plastic goods in Bangladesh and increasingly finding foreign markets.See the growth of domestic motor cycle industry.Our toy industry is rapidly developing. Check out some news about it. Toys is a big item in Chinese export juggernaut.

Govt. is building 100 EEZ and scores of other IT villages to attract local and foreign investment.A huge Electronic city in Sylhet is under construction.A huge oil refinery is in pipeline.Industrial sector is growing more than 10 percent every years for many years.Not all of it just garments. Actually Garments is not growing much recently.It is mostly the other sectors.Don't you find these trends encouraging? This country is just emerging from LDC and isn't it a little over expectation to expect many more robust export industry already besides garments export?

Of course, our economy will not flourish in a same way like Vietnam or other heavy export driven economy of East Asia. It will be a mix of both, export+local consumption.So it is futile to look at Vietnam's FDI and export figure and feel down about ourselves. Bangladesh get a fraction of FDI and export earning of Vietnam, but growing slightly faster than that country economically in recent years. Up to 2014, Vietnam had bigger GDP than Bangladesh. GDP of Bangladesh is now 286 billion and Vietnam is 241 billion respectively and Gross Capital formation for Bangladesh is 30 percent and for Vietnam is 27 percent of GDP. For Bangladesh, it is mostly about a robust domestic investment and home consumer base.Vietnam's ballooned export driven economic growth model is not the only path of economic success. Bangladesh will have both. Both export and domestic consumption will grow hand in hand in our case.

We are in a transition period of diversifying our export basket. It is too early to expect many more robust export orientated industry in a country which had a very little FDI and poor consumer base in near past. It is only very recently that a consumer class is achieving a critical mass and a field to attract FDI is forming.You should give time to this country and see what happen rather than spreading premature pessimism.

 

[Dot]

You guys are missing out the key pre-requisites to all sort of sustained-development. Good Governance & Rapid Reform, which our current administration is not really eager at in order to retain mere political dominence at the expense of nation's future.

 

[TopCat]

You guys are missing out the key pre-requisites to all sort of sustained-development. Good Governance & Rapid Reform, which our current administration is not really eager at in order to retain mere political dominence at the expense of nation's future.

Reform is a buzz word... what reform you talking about?
The biggest bottle necks in this stage of development are the infrastructure. We need good roads, power, security, port and land. The economy will fly itself.
The main hurdle was the literacy which was taken care of.

 

[Homo Sapiens]

No country ever developed with only the participation of foreign money. BD people lack knowledge, technology, experience and capital to do any important job by themselves. BD people cannot even design or manufacture a machine today, while it is being done in India. How do you guys expect it to continue to grow? It will take many more decades (or Centuries) to learn from others. Once, there are capable people and companies in BD like India has, it will be possible to start real progress.

Why are you comparing Bangladesh with India which has a different economic set up all along than Bangladesh owing to it's vast size? Indian economy is 10 times of Bangladesh and it's consumer base is 8 times bigger.So a lot of technology intensive, heavy industries developed there early. Do you think, this was possible in small Bangladesh? Due to it's massive population size and some other factors like inheritance of British legacy and a compulsion to learn English to do work in a country which is linguistically very diverse, India managed to create a pool of man power skilled in English language second only USA. This factor driven the growth of Call center and IT boom there. Do you think that was possible in a smaller and linguistically homogeneous Bangladesh? So it is laughable to expect same level of knowledge, technology, experience and capital for Bangladesh which is neither as large as India nor have undergone industrialization 100 years ago like Japan.Rather than beating the bush here and there and comparing apple with orange why don't you focus in vital indicators necessary for economic growth so that you may not lost your sight counting the trees in the forest?

1.Agricultural growth
2.Industrial growth including manufacturing growth
3.Service sector growth
4.Literacy rate including mean years of schooling
5.Female labor participation
6.Reduced TFR and demographic dividend
7.Public health profile including life expectancy
8.Electrification growth rate
8.Gross capita formation as (%) of GDP
9.Inflation rate and macro-economic stability
10.Foreign debt to GDP ratio
11.Growth in technical and vocational education
12.Growth in infrastructure developmental spending

in some of these indicators we have done already good job and in some others, rapidly narrowing the gap with similar fast growing developing countries.Now tell me, in which of these indicators Bangladesh is doing worse than it's peer countries and about to fail big time?

 

[Dot]

Reform is a buzz word... what reform you talking about?
The biggest bottle necks in this stage of development are the infrastructure. We need good roads, power, security, port and land. The economy will fly itself.
The main hurdle was the literacy which was taken care of.

Reform is to make rules/methods pragmatic, dynamic to effectively deal with things of today & tommorrow. And in reality there's hardy been any real reform except a few. Just look at Dhaka-Chittagong 4 lane to grasp an idea of what infrastructural development means today. Sure it better that we got wider roads but the cost & benefit does not match. And currently our so-called educated guys are the most unemployed ones. (All Thanks to our imbecile leaders)

 

[TopCat]

Reform is to make rules/methods pragmatic, dynamic to effectively deal with things of today & tommorrow. And in reality there's hardy been any real reform except a few. Just look at Dhaka-Chittagong 4 lane to grasp an idea of what infrastructural development means today. Sure it better that we got wider roads but the cost & benefit does not match. And currently our so-called educated guys are the most unemployed ones. (All Thanks to our imbecile leaders)

Pls name one rules/methods that you think needs amendment and how this rule actually stop us getting growth. I said dont give me vague generic buzz word.

 

[Homo Sapiens]

Reform is to make rules/methods pragmatic, dynamic to effectively deal with things of today & tommorrow. And in reality there's hardy been any real reform except a few. Just look at Dhaka-Chittagong 4 lane to grasp an idea of what infrastructural development means today. Sure it better that we got wider roads but the cost & benefit does not match. And currently our so-called educated guys are the most unemployed ones. (All Thanks to our imbecile leaders)

Reform and economic development goes hand in hand.We will continue to reform along the path of growth. Some of the rapidly growing developing countries are also the one who are at the bottom in corruption perception index, easy of doing business, bureaucratic red tape etc. Good Public institution can not be build overnight in a country.It is a lengthy walk in the path of development.Same is true for infrastructure development. For a country which had no 4 lane highway only a few years ago and started with Dhaka-Chittagong highway, a lot of mismanagement is expected. They even did not keep a side road for slow moving vehicle like rickshaw or cycle. A mistake which they realized only after it was opened for public use.Now they are keeping side road for slow moving vehicles in other 4 lane projects. Same with flyover, at first they built some flyover which was devoid of connecting ramp.But not now.Most important thing is, things are moving in a right direction gradually as we are becoming more accustomed to build big infrastructure. Now India is very skilled at building Metro rail. Do you know, how many years took India to build the first Metro in Kolkata? 12 years.Inefficiency and inexperience can only be overcome by doing actual things on the ground more and more. There is no other way for an 'Intern' country like ourselves.

 

[Dot]

Pls name one rules/methods that you think needs amendment and how this rule actually stop us getting growth. I said dont give me vague generic buzz word.

Take a look at the Banking sector. Bangladesh Bank has literally no capacilty to act independently, where as they spend millions each year crunching numbers and coming up with policies which manytimes are thrown into dustbin by our political geniuses (lack of governance). You allow majority of institutional investors to buy Social Savings Bonds with a market distorting rate and yet the same geniuses could could not even come up with a Bond market since 2010 (no Reform). You allow work only through syndication (1 core club, 5 core club, 20 core club etc) for local level contractual works. For Bogra to Shirajgonj proposed railtrack project you opt to use a different consultant contract for each kilometre of the project increasing the cost by a huge margin initially. You still favor shitty quota system for metit driven & demanding govt sectors jobs (in primary school women can get upto 80% of teacher's job even if they are unqualified). Hardly any projects can be done without cost/deadline upward revisal. You appoint all judges from lower to higher courts as per political affliation. You allow higher education & produce graduates without reflecting or considering what market wants. You retain tainted govt higherups with corruption and show the middle finger to accountability.......so on....so on....so on. These and many others are interrelated with issues of lack of good governance & rapid reform. And all of these can be backed by facts.

 

[UKBengali]

IMF has more or less been spot on w.r.t BBS (given that is the only real source of data for BD). Real growth of BD has been around 6.5 - 7% for last decade, more or line in with the BBS claims.

Yes and this growth has been with political instability and atrocious infrastructure that is being rapidly remedied as we speak.

In terms of infrastructure, BD now has both Russia and China providing multi-billion dollar loans to build power stations, road, railways etc that it did not have for the last decade. BD now has in largest order, China:Russia and India giving put multi-billion dollar loans to build infrastructure that it did not for the last decade, if you take out the measly less than 1 billion US dollars it got from India.
Political stability is way up there now and AL will absolutely romp home to another election win early next year.

What you say for average growth for 2020s dude?