Financial Express :: Financial Newspaper of bangladesh
Rising inflation poses challenge
Declining investment, imports, exports to slow down growth
FE Report
The country's economic growth would slow down to 5.5 per cent this fiscal year, as exports and investment went into the red, import of industrial machinery and raw materials dipped while inflation shows signs of upward movement, experts said Thursday.
Remittance, flat exchange rate, farm output and a robust foreign exchange reserve are some of the areas where the economy has excelled, but the performance was not good enough to boost growth beyond last fiscal's 5.88 per cent, they added.
The seminar titled Global Recession and Bangladesh Economy: Macro and Meso Trends was organised by the private think tank Policy and Participation Research Center (PPRC) in the city.
Former Bangladesh Bank governor Dr Salehuddin Ahmed said manufacturing sector is the main driver of economic growth in Bangladesh, but lack of investment has hit the sector.
"LC (Letter of Credit also known as import order) opening for capital (industrial) machinery grew by 37 per cent but settlement was six per cent negative," Ahmed said.
Import of industrial machinery gives ample indications on manufacturing growth in the near future and so far the signals are not positive, he said.
He added import of industrial raw material has declined by 13 per cent, reflecting dismal performance in the exports and manufacturing sector.
"With the main macro-economic indicators showing signs of distress, I don't think this year the economy would grow more than 5.5 per cent," the former governor said, stressing more spending in infrastructure to spur investment.
He said food and non-food inflation has been increasing in recent months, digging dip into the pockets of common people.
"All indications are that inflation may cross seven per cent in the current fiscal. Controlling prices now poses a big challenge to the government," he said.
The point-to-point inflation hit 7.24 per cent in November with the food inflation in urban areas reaching 9.83 per cent during the period, up from 6.48 per cent in the same time in 2008.
Import is likely to have negative growth of four per cent to 7.5 per cent while export is expected to rise a tepid five-six per cent while remittance may grow between 15 and 19 per cent, he said.
Former finance adviser Mirza Azizul Islam said the economy is heading for a slowest growth in recent years - being pulled down by moribund private sector credit, sharp downturn in term lending and negative exports and imports.
"In addition, excess liquidity is building up in the economy as entrepreneurs are not investing their money in real sectors," he said.
Industrial unrest including series of violent wage-linked clashes in the garment sector and dearth of gas and power are the major factors behind the dipping investment, he added.
"Why a new factory will be set up when the government is opted for gas and power rationing?" he questioned.
The former advisor said the government needs not worry much about rising inflation and should instead focus on manufacturing and service sector growth and increase spending in social safety net.
Mirza Azizul said remittance flow could also slow down in the coming months as the government has failed to resolve disputes with major Bangladeshi employers.
"Work permit problem in Saudi Arabia has not been resolved yet. Malaysia has not lifted the ban on Bangladeshi workers and other Middle Eastern countries are not interested in our workers," he said.
Former adviser and PPRC executive chairman Dr Hossain Zillur Rahman said uncertain policy direction is sending wrong signal to the entrepreneurs, resulting in a sharp decline in investment.
Investors do not like to do business in an uncertain environment, stemming mainly from political situation, he said.
There has also been sharp deterioration in quality of investment as entrepreneurs are mainly investing in unproductive areas, not in productive sectors, he said.
Dr. Rahman said inflation is a big concern but he cautioned that the government should not do anything that affects growth prospect.
"In 2008, inflation rose to double digit due to high food prices but this year non-food inflation is also going up, which is a bad sign," he said.
The former adviser suggested that the government should expand social safety net programme to cushion poor people from the affects of price pressures.
Federation of Bangladesh Chambers of Commerce and Industry president Annisul Haq said export grew minus seven per cent in July-November period,
"If the country wants to achieve positive export growth of at least five to six per cent, the growth rate should be 14 per cent during the next seven months," he said.
It would be a tough call as import of raw material and capital machinery has already declined, he added.
The apex trade body chief said the interest rate is too high and it is harming growth prospect.
Executive director of CPD Mustafizur Rahman said poor public expenditure is dragging down growth as the government could spend only 28 per cent of its Annual Development Programme (ADP) in the first six months.