You scenarios are potentially a little too hopeful!
Firstly, as I said, AZE would have taken ALL of N-K and the 'surrounding' AZE territory had a ceasefire not been declared. So these 80% or 30% something something is just something! Why settle for less when you can have it all--unless you screwed up by downing a Russian heli inside ARM!??? Perhaps Russia secretly conveyed that 'make peace now or I will use the heli downing to severely punish you!'.
As for the Turkish soldiers .. we will wait to see what will be on the ground and what is allowed by Russia. Let's not forget that Turkey is still a NATO country and that the new ARM will be a Russian vassal state!!
The wild AZE celebrations are pre-mature. True, ARM is humiliated but they still stand as a nation, with a powerful nation behind their new Vichy Regime, and with control of at least some AZE territories in ARM control.
You see: A thief steals a some things from a house. . Loses some after some the home owners come back the thief. But the thief still retains some. The thief also gets the local sheriff's backing behind the thief. The local sheriff is the biggest daddy in the neighborhood. The sheriff will get what it wants. The thief is not the ultimate loser. It's the vandalized house which is the ultimate loser.
The AZE celebrations are deluded and premature. But I am glad, for now, people are not dying in that war.