Featured Azerbaijan Armenian War

[That Guy]

I hope you’re right. But let’s see the agreement first. There will be some sort of Armenian police force at least. And that will prevent any Azeiri returning to 90% of NK. I mean technically they can return. But if someone shoots you dead in a bar, there will be no witnesses and no police investigation.

But let’s see what the agreement says. No one has mentioned that NK will be demilitarised. On the contrary, front lines remain as they are in NK area.


Yellow is a bit generous. The red map superimposed on NK map will give you are are AZE Are keeping that’s part of NK. (Excluding 7 regions).

https://twitter.com/x/status/1325989216623398912

Nope. Unless you mean there will be an ethnic armenian police force, then yes, but under Azeri supervision, because they'll be Azerbaijani citizens.

If you mean an armenian national police force, then no.

After all, autonomy doesn't mean they control all of their finances, they'll still have to go through Azerbaijan for that. The Azeris will be footing the bill for the police force in the region. Autonomy just means they make their own internal rules within the region, but everything external has to go through Azerbaijan.

 

[ziaulislam]

Armenians get to keep the yellow marked areas with Russian peacekeepers to guard the area and corridor to armenia republic

excellent post
see most of NK proper is uninhabited mountainous with just shusha and henkendi being the main cities

its flat surrounding 7 districts that was real problem
azeris get that and keep shusha..this is big success..though dont get me wrong azeris could have finished it wihout russian intervention..

while the Armenians keep the capital( around 2/3 of proper NK)..
also i dont see any commitment to free NK..so its fate still is undecided and this can change in 5-10 yrs

 

[zartosht]

This is a ceasefire. this status quo is absolutely untenable for both sides.

Azerbaijan claims the entire territory as its. so its going to forgive the rest of the territories in armenian hands?

the all important capital stepenakert will remain in armenian hands. While sushi will be a stones throw away. Neither side can have people living there in such circumstances. either armenia has to retake sushi, or azerbaijan has to take stepanekrt.

this battle though has been won by the Azeri's without question. The armenians were caught were their pants down. completely unprepred for precision drones, and underestimating their enemy.

If the war continued it would have probably resulted in more azeri gains, and a desperate armenia heavily escalating with missile attacks, and or all out attack azerbaijan from armenia proper.

This is a humiliation for Armenia. Though they get to survive to fight another day.

my guess is Armenia will get rid of pashinyan, a pro-moscow puppet will get on his knees in moscow, and declare unconditional open a**. try to re-arm, get precision drones of their own, and go for a counter attack at some point. perhaps with a scheme to somehow draw Russia in .

 

[Titanium100]

excellent post
see most of NK proper is uninhabited mountainous with just shusha and henkendi being the main cities

its flat surrounding 7 districts that was real problem
azeris get that and keep shusha..this is big success..though dont get me wrong azeris could have finished it wihout russian intervention..

while the Armenians keep the capital( around 2/3 of proper NK)..
also i dont see any commitment to free NK..so its fate still is undecided and this can change in 5-10 yrs

That map is not entirely correct As it leaves out good junk of the territories AZ conquered in the north

 

[That Guy]

Aliyev also said this in his speech "there are some classifed information. I will reveal those soon once they become declassified"

This backs up my theory that Turkish involment also a part of the deal and maybe more but because that could intensify the uproar of armenian public they didn't announce with the current text. News about Turkey's involvement comes from both russian and turkish media and from Aliyev's remarks. In one of the turkish tv they even gave the number of observation points that will be set up by Turks and Russians. Supposedly 17 observation points. Also there are news that Turkey and Russia will sign a deal tomorrow about guarantorship.

Also what I heard is that because this agreement is a ceasefire agreement fundamentally it does not require a parliment approval. It is not a border agreement or anything like that. That is why it's effective time is almost instantaneous. Armenia is already obligated with or without parliment support.

No matter what we think about who won or lost between Azerbaijan and Armenia, it's clear that Russia, Turkey and NATO all won big in their own ways.

Russia got to expand its influence, and punish Armenia for trying to side line Russia for the US.

Turkey now has a foot hold to influence the region, and challenge Russia.

NATO, because it now has a presence in the region through Turkey.

 

[ziaulislam]

This is a ceasefire. this status quo is absolutely untenable for both sides.

Azerbaijan claims the entire territory as its. so its going to forgive the rest of the territories in armenian hands?

the all important capital stepenakert will remain in armenian hands. While sushi will be a stones throw away. Neither side can have people living there in such circumstances. either armenia has to retake sushi, or azerbaijan has to take stepanekrt.

this battle though has been won by the Azeri's without question. The armenians were caught were their pants down. completely unprepred for precision drones, and underestimating their enemy.

If the war continued it would have probably resulted in more azeri gains, and a desperate armenia heavily escalating with missile attacks, and or all out attack azerbaijan from armenia proper.

This is a humiliation for Armenia. Though they get to survive to fight another day.

my guess is Armenia will get rid of pashinyan, a pro-moscow puppet will get on his knees in moscow, and declare unconditional open a**. try to re-arm, get precision drones of their own, and go for a counter attack at some point. perhaps with a scheme to somehow draw Russia in .

i disagree, this is just short of total defeat..in practical term Armenians just keep the capital (which they would have lost within a few days) and surrounding uninhabited monotonous ranges..

most of settled areas even in NK proper will be handed over to azeris

had the deal included all NK then i would have said okay a fair deal

russians did this after they realized Armenians are going to escalate to damage oil infrastructures/all out war

 

[That Guy]

This is a ceasefire. this status quo is absolutely untenable for both sides.

Azerbaijan claims the entire territory as its. so its going to forgive the rest of the territories in armenian hands?

the all important capital stepenakert will remain in armenian hands. While sushi will be a stones throw away. Neither side can have people living there in such circumstances. either armenia has to retake sushi, or azerbaijan has to take stepanekrt.

this battle though has been won by the Azeri's without question. The armenians were caught were their pants down. completely unprepred for precision drones, and underestimating their enemy.

If the war continued it would have probably resulted in more azeri gains, and a desperate armenia heavily escalating with missile attacks, and or all out attack azerbaijan from armenia proper.

This is a humiliation for Armenia. Though they get to survive to fight another day.

my guess is Armenia will get rid of pashinyan, a pro-moscow puppet will get on his knees in moscow, and declare unconditional open a**. try to re-arm, get precision drones of their own, and go for a counter attack at some point. perhaps with a scheme to somehow draw Russia in .

It will take decades for Armenia to rearm. They lost a lot, both men and material.

With a loss, the situation is dire for them. There is no doubt going to be political instability in Armenia for a long while to come.

I wouldn't worry too much about an Armenian counter attack.

 

[Oldman1]

No matter what we think about who won or lost between Azerbaijan and Armenia, it's clear that Russia, Turkey and NATO all won big in their own ways.

Russia got to expand its influence, and punish Armenia for trying to side line Russia for the US.

Turkey now has a foot hold to influence the region, and challenge Russia.

NATO, because it now has a presence in the region through Turkey.

Thought Russia already have influence in Armenia considering they have military in Armenia.

 

[ziaulislam]

No matter what we think about who won or lost between Azerbaijan and Armenia, it's clear that Russia, Turkey and NATO all won big in their own ways.

Russia got to expand its influence, and punish Armenia for trying to side line Russia for the US.

Turkey now has a foot hold to influence the region, and challenge Russia.

NATO, because it now has a presence in the region through Turkey.

i think NATO lost turkey won..

now the push to sideline turkey out of NATO is not possible..

turkey is now indispensible for NATO given it foot hold in russia backyard

dont be surprise if uncle sam lets turkey back inf 35 etc now

 

[Mav3rick]

I wonder why Azerbaijan flew the Pakistani flag above its own flag and the Turkish flag under its own flag. Is it meant to suggest that Pakistan did actively assist in the war, to acknowledge and appreciate Pakistani efforts??

 

[Psychedelic]

Iran was moving its army on the border, trying to broker a deal between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Looks like they were ignored and sidelined by Turkey and Russia.

 

[Titanium100]

I wonder why Azerbaijan flew the Pakistani flag above its own flag and the Turkish flag under its own flag. Is it meant to suggest that Pakistan did actively assist in the war, to acknowledge and appreciate Pakistani efforts??

Pakistan has been very supportive of Azerbaijan. One of the major allies in this axes

 

[Psychedelic]

I wonder why Azerbaijan flew the Pakistani flag above its own flag and the Turkish flag under its own flag. Is it meant to suggest that Pakistan did actively assist in the war, to acknowledge and appreciate Pakistani efforts??

I don't think so. Maybe they didn't want to deal people with flag height fetish and just put it on top of theirs.

just kidding

 

[Mirzah]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1325960906103250946

https://twitter.com/x/status/1326052071804637184

https://twitter.com/x/status/1326056632401457157

 

[thetutle]

i disagree, this is just short of total defeat..in practical term Armenians just keep the capital (which they would have lost within a few days) and surrounding uninhabited monotonous ranges..

most of settled areas even in NK proper will be handed over to azeris

had the deal included all NK then i would have said okay a fair deal

russians did this after they realized Armenians are going to escalate to damage oil infrastructures/all out war

By this warped logic. NK can never be recovered by AZE, because Armenia retains the ability to use its missiles and will continue to have that ability.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1325960906103250946

https://twitter.com/x/status/1326052071804637184

Armenians should be celebrating. They get to keep 9,000sq km of land belonging to another country. Even though they were a few weeks from losing it all
This peace would be like Germans in April 1945 saying, “ok guys let’s stop now, and we get to keep Poland right? Ok great!”