Can you please translate the key parts brother?
Thank you for the realistic assessment from someone that has lived through a similar conflict. Dog you think Azerbaijan will get a corridor to its western portion and under what terms? Do you think that corridor will be safe (considering Russian troops will be there) for Azerbaijan to carry out trade or is it just a temporary matter until a new armenia-Azeri war happens again?
Thank you. I think AZE will get a corridor through Armenia. it will be a Azeri built road through Armenian territory, not a problem for Armenia I think. I think it will be safe, perhaps similar to what west germans had in order to drive or get a train to west berlin. Drive, on the road, dont get off, cameras and guards every 100 metres. It's very possible and very easy to achieve. I dont think armenians will be stopping cars and shooting people by the side of the road. So that's not a problem at all. Just dont get off the road. but here will be barriers so you can't get of anyway.
This would be a good thing. Its one of the very few good things about this terrible agreement.
BTW, I havent lived through be bosnian conflict, but I saw how it was implemented, and how the serbian areas were reintegrated into the country and how they submitted to the central authority. That worked quite well in Bosnia. A few months after the war you could go to the serbian area and probably not be killed. The serbian police were more dangerous than the civilians.
After a year, you could be pretty safe. there were NATO troops everywhere and EU police everywhere watching the serbian police. if your car was identified to be from a muslim area, it might have a side mirror broken.
5 years later it was quite safe. maybe even very safe. you could return, your property (land, apartment) was returned if it was occupied by some serb squatter.
10 years later, police might give you a fine for having a muslim name or not being a serb. They pretend you are speeding when you are not. or they might not give you fine but just ask you lots of stupid questions. very subtle harassment. the citizens will not cause you any problems. you can just move to the serbian part and get all your documents no problem. no-one would even raise an eyebrow. the general population would be quite friendly to you.
20 years later, you could probably walk down the street with a bosnian flag singing bosnian patriotic songs and you would probably be safe. police might give you a fine for disturbing the public order. (interestingly, if you went to serbia and did this, no-one would bother you and might even join in singing with you).
So with Azerbaijan, this deal does not give even a hope that some Azeri can go back to Karabakh. there is a question if they will even be able to enter across the front lines. will they need a passport? this is not autonomy, this is a de facto independent country. Just smaller. right in the middle of azerbaijan.
