Australia should focus on India: John Howard

[illusion8]

Melbourne: Australia should not be mesmerised by China's growth and focus on India, "a sleeping giant", former prime minister John Howard has said.

Howard said with the European Union crumbling down, it was affecting China and a focus on China would affect the Australian economy.

According to 'Brisbane Times' report today, Howard said that Australia should not be mesmerised by China's growth and insisted that demographics pointed to "India as a sleeping giant".

"China is growing very rapidly, but it does have two elephants in the room. The first elephant in the room that China has is demography; China will grow old before she grows rich."

Howard, who was Australia's prime minister from 1996-2007, said India's population was younger and the stark contrast with China was "astonishing".

"India's population between the ages of 15 and 24 is the largest of that age cohort of any nation in the world," he said, adding that age bracket included 230 million people, almost the population of Indonesia.

"It gives you an indication of the contrast between India and China as far as the age and therefore the potential vitality of the population," he said.

Howard said China was the second largest economy in the world by virtue of its size, not by its capital wealth.

He said China's ageing population would come at a cost.

"It will have to invest more and more in looking after her ageing population," he said, insisting that Australia should focus on India.

He said China's economy was in "better shape", education levels were better and while its layers of bureaucracy were at times "bewildering", the country remained an extremely valuable trade partner for Australia.

"The point I leave you with however is that if India can get her act together, because of the relative youthfulness of the population, it can make a big difference," he further added.

China's second "elephant in the room" was the difference was the communist nation's attitude to "political liberation", he added.

"My simple view is - and some people call it simple, but I think it is fundamentally correct - my theory is that the generation newly enriched by China's extraordinary economic growth, will accept being told what to do politically," he said.

"But the children of that generation will not. The children of that generation will take economic empowerment for granted and they will want a say in their own future," he said.

He said he was optimistic about economic recovery in the United States, but less favourable about the euro-economy nations.

"I am not very optimistic about Europe. I thought that the Euro was a colossal mistake. It was sold to a group of European politicians, by what I call the European or Brussels elite, who are obsessed with implementing the ideal of some kind of supra-European state," he said.

Howard said his doubts were founded on the fact that the region did not have a unifying fiscal system. He said without a central taxation system, he had doubts it would last into the future.


Australia should focus on India: John Howard

Saw a similar Howard classic in 2010
http://www.defence.pk/forums/indian-defence/78887-india-will-top-china-howard.html

 

[IND151]

This article is not surprising.

Australia is keen to boost relationship with India.

It sees India as a rising economic power and more importantly - a customer for its uranium and wants a large share in Indian Uranium Market.

Also they must be looking for Indian investment in their economy-on much larger scale compared to now.

 

[Srinivas]

Howard is spot on regarding youth of India.

 

[Capt.Popeye]

What Howard has to say about India is interesting and may even be credible.
But what he has to say about China is no less interesting too. And I refer to this part that he said about China:
"My simple view is - and some people call it simple, but I think it is fundamentally correct - my theory is that the generation newly enriched by China's extraordinary economic growth, will accept being told what to do politically," he said.

"But the children of that generation will not. The children of that generation will take economic empowerment for granted and they will want a say in their own future," he said.

Here he is very accurate in his assessment. Next-Gen in China is not only going to take Economic Empowerment for granted, but is already hungry for Political Empowerment. Now this is the slightly complicated part for the Chinese Political System. How to handle that issue effectively and sustainably is the question, given that China has been and still is a Functional Oligarchy.

For the present generation; Economic Empowerment over-rides Political Empowerment in large measure. But later will be more interesting, we have to watch closely what eventually plays out.
Mao and/or Confucius may not be adequate to the task.

 

[illusion8]

What Howard has to say about India is interesting and may even be credible.
But what he has to say about China is no less interesting too. And I refer to this part that he said about China:
"My simple view is - and some people call it simple, but I think it is fundamentally correct - my theory is that the generation newly enriched by China's extraordinary economic growth, will accept being told what to do politically," he said.

"But the children of that generation will not. The children of that generation will take economic empowerment for granted and they will want a say in their own future," he said.

Here he is very accurate in his assessment. Next-Gen in China is not only going to take Economic Empowerment for granted, but is already hungry for Political Empowerment. Now this is the slightly complicated part for the Chinese Political System. How to handle that issue effectively and sustainably is the question, given that China has been and still is a Functional Oligarchy.

For the present generation; Economic Empowerment over-rides Political Empowerment in large measure. But later will be more interesting, we have to watch closely what eventually plays out.
Mao and/or Confucius may not be adequate to the task.

China's authoritarian regime is already having this problem with the current generation - the interwebs and twitter like sites are filled with people questioning the Governance style. Chinese leaders are promising more freedom once they attain their goals (no idea what that is, but they idolize the US - so it has to be China reaching the US's standard) to their people. But it's highly impossible to give up control and power once it's attained.

 

[Capt.Popeye]

China's authoritarian regime is already having this problem with the current generation - the interwebs and twitter like sites are filled with people questioning the Governance style. Chinese leaders are promising more freedom once they attain their goals (no idea what that is, but they idolize the US - so it has to be China reaching the US's standard) to their people. But it's highly impossible to give up control and power once it's attained.

Yes, my own experiences in China over the years point in that direction.
China has many solutions to economic problems, the sociological issues however will need more attention; going forward.

 

[illusion8]

Yes, my own experiences in China over the years point in that direction.
China has many solutions to economic problems, the sociological issues however will need more attention; going forward.

I think it will turn for the worse rather than good, not exactly on the lines of the earlier clamp down on demonstrations or uprisings, but people in power rarely give it up.

 

[xdrive]

We want John back!

 

[Capt.Popeye]

We want John back!

John Howard will come back, don't you think so?

 

[Alfa-Fighter]

Australian's is the most opportunist and Raciest People, India should teach Australia a lesson and two for its behaviour in 90's and till 2010 .....

 

[illusion8]

Australian's is the most opportunist and Raciest People, India should teach Australia a lesson and two for its behaviour in 90's and till 2010 .....

Are you mad, teach what lesson??

 

[Developereo]

John Howard doesn't have a brain; he is a robotic American mouthpiece.

 

[for truth]

"I am not very optimistic about Europe. I thought that the Euro was a colossal mistake. It was sold to a group of European politicians, by what I call the European or Brussels elite, who are obsessed with implementing the ideal of some kind of supra-European state,"

frankly,right now this what the Islamic countries are doing right now, i have doubts in Islamic banking system.

"The point I leave you with however is that if India can get her act together, because of the relative youthfulness of the population, it can make a big difference,"

guess this is the most important point, and china is not going down as some western countries point, they will only go a lot higher even before they start stagnating,china has yet to prove what it is capable of, and i know the Chinese will,they will never give up until they defeat US and make their own mark.

 

[Alfa-Fighter]

Are you mad, teach what lesson??

1) Do you know , Australia is the only country who oppose india on nuclear issue?
2) Do you Australia is the country who spyed on Indian Premium Ship (INS Delhi) way back when its lunched and in Indian Ocean ? INS at that time was the most powerful ship in the region a pride on INDIA

An Australian naval surveillance aircraft took aerial pictures and tried to record data related to anti-submarine warfare capabilities of the newly built Indian warship INS Delhi in November 1997. Defence Minister George Fernandes told the Lok Sabha on Thursday.

The Australian aircraft reportedly made a close pass at Delhi in a position approximately 200 nautical miles south-west off Port Blair in the Bay of Bengal, he said in a written answer to Sushil Kumar Shinde.

The aircraft was reported to have also dropped three Sonobuoys ahead of INS Delhi. the minister said.

The incident was taken up with the Australian government and a suitable protest lodged against the “unfriendly and provocative act.” he said.

The Australian government said surveillance at high seas did not constitute any violation of norms and the Australian tactics are not different from those adopted by other armed forces in the region. he added.

Mr Fernandes said the Australian proposal for a bilateral de George Fernandes fence dialogue with India has been put on indefinite hold in view of Australia’s official statements and unilateral actions following the Pokhran tests.

The invitation extended to defence secretary [or an official visit to Australia has also been declined in view of the fact that Australia’s actions preclude any meaningful cooperation in defence in the foreseeable future, he said.

http://www.cscsarchive.org:8081/MediaArchive/audience.nsf/(docid)/DE062CAEC71117066525694100421661

 

[illusion8]

1) Do you know , Australia is the only country who oppose india on nuclear issue?
2) Do you Australia is the country who spyed on Indian Premium Ship (INS Delhi) way back when its lunched and in Indian Ocean ? INS at that time was the most powerful ship in the region a pride on INDIA

An Australian naval surveillance aircraft took aerial pictures and tried to record data related to anti-submarine warfare capabilities of the newly built Indian warship INS Delhi in November 1997. Defence Minister George Fernandes told the Lok Sabha on Thursday.

The Australian aircraft reportedly made a close pass at Delhi in a position approximately 200 nautical miles south-west off Port Blair in the Bay of Bengal, he said in a written answer to Sushil Kumar Shinde.

The aircraft was reported to have also dropped three Sonobuoys ahead of INS Delhi. the minister said.

The incident was taken up with the Australian government and a suitable protest lodged against the “unfriendly and provocative act.” he said.

The Australian government said surveillance at high seas did not constitute any violation of norms and the Australian tactics are not different from those adopted by other armed forces in the region. he added.

Mr Fernandes said the Australian proposal for a bilateral de George Fernandes fence dialogue with India has been put on indefinite hold in view of Australia’s official statements and unilateral actions following the Pokhran tests.

The invitation extended to defence secretary [or an official visit to Australia has also been declined in view of the fact that Australia’s actions preclude any meaningful cooperation in defence in the foreseeable future, he said.

http://www.cscsarchive.org:8081/MediaArchive/audience.nsf/(docid)/DE062CAEC71117066525694100421661

Nothing there is severe, most are on expected lines. Geopolitics has changed - Australia needs us and vice e versa, one does not hold a grudge for too long in diplomatic circles.