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Australia is at a point where it has to choose between its ally America and its economic backer Chin

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Australia is at a point where it has to choose between its ally America and its economic backer China
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May 02, 2017

With America’s commitment to Asia-Pacific security looking shaky and China’s economic—and military—might rising, a peculiarly Australian question is at the forefront: Are we Asian or Western? It’s a dilemma not just of cultural identity—but about which major power Australia’s future hinges on.

“We haven’t had to choose in the past,” said Hugh White, a former official in Australia’s defense department who now teaches at Australian National University (ANU). But with a more isolationist Trump administration in power in the US, “Australia now has to think for the first time in its history what kind of place it wants to make for itself when Asia is not dominated by an Anglo-Saxon power.”

As a former British colony with a majority white population, Australia has for much of its history viewed itself as an Anglosphere country despite its proximity to rising Asian powers like Indonesia and China. Australia has a long-standing alliance with the US, and is arguably America’s most loyal ally on the battlefield. The country also hosts a number of US bases, including over a thousand marines stationed in the northern city of Darwin, as part of president Barack Obama’s “pivot to Asia. (paywall)”

Australia started to consider its place in Asia in a more serious way in the early 1990s, as the country, mired in recession, looked with trepidation (paywall) at Asia’s rapidly growing economies. Then prime minister Paul Keating warned in a speech in 1992 that Australia should no longer be dragged down by “Anglophilia and torpor.” The height of Australia’s cultural embrace of China arguably came during the administration of Kevin Rudd, a fluent Mandarin speaker. And Australia has also, in the past decade, become a much more multicultural country, with Chinese now the second-most common language spoken in Australian homes.

But Australia is still far too passive when it comes to China’s ascendancy, according to Linda Jakobson, founder of China Matters, a public-policy initiative based in Sydney.

“Australia has had a pretty easy equation for several decades now. Prosperity has continued in Australia as it ships resources to China, which has also contributed to prosperity in China. One hasn’t had to try very hard,” said Jakobson. “Australians need to much more deeply think about how they are going to navigate the region as China becomes more dominant.”

Location, location, location
While America dithers over its commitment to Asia, Australians know how their economic bread is buttered.

China wants everything from minerals to steaks to education from Australia, and is now Australia’s biggest trading partner in terms of imports and exports. According to a recent KPMG report, Chinese investment in Australia in 2016 hit a new record (pdf) since the financial crisis, with a record amount going into agriculture, as China’s middle class seeks safer food sources in ever-growing numbers. China is also the biggest source of foreign students to the country.

Attitudes toward China among Australia are also warming—particularly among the younger generation—as disenchantment toward the US grows, according to polling conducted by the Lowy Institute, a Sydney-based think tank. Trump, after all, did kick off his presidency by insulting a number of nations around the world, including Australia, and reportedly held an unfriendly phone call with prime minister Malcolm Turnbull.

“In America now we have Donald Trump, and that is the biggest wake-up call for clear thinking about America at least since the Vietnam War years,” said Stephen FitzGerald, Australia’s first ambassador to the People’s Republic of China, in a March speech. “This is not to say there hasn’t been cause in the years between; there just hasn’t been the scale of shock.”

Gift horse
Letting go of Australia’s Anglo-Saxon past, however, is neither easy, nor imminent.

While China’s gargantuan appetite for Australian products has shielded the country from the worst effects of the global financial crisis, Australians also recognize that this has come at a cost. Many blame the influx of Chinese money for fueling a property boom that has put home ownership out of reach for most Australians in major cities. And while Chinese demand for goods like wool and health supplements seems innocuous, there are growing concerns that China is able to transform its economic power over Australia into political leverage. Last year, a series of political donations scandals linked to Chinese donors raised questions over whether Australian politicians were vulnerable to security risks. Investments into more sensitive areas like farmland and infrastructure are also a source of worry—Australia last year rejected a Chinese bidder from buying a stake in power network Ausgrid.

Rory Medcalf, a professor at ANU, warned in a recent paper that Australia is overstating China’s economic leverage and should be ready to push back if China attempts to use its economic power as a form of coercion—a recommendation that has particular resonance at a time when China has applied that tactic to try and force Taiwan and South Korea into political submission.

“The risk is that Australia will buy the story that their economy is so comprehensively dependent on China that Australia cannot afford to cause China much difficulty on security and political issues, even when our interests diverge,” he wrote, adding that in terms of foreign direct investment in Australia, China still stands far behind the US, UK, and Japan. There are also no easy substitutes for goods like Australia’s iron ore if China wanted to reduce its reliance on Australian resources, he added, and exports of coal, tourism, and education to China make up less than 1% of Australia’s GDP.

Australia has pushed back. Canberra decided to shelve an extradition treaty with China as politicians expressed concerns over China’s human rights record—three Australian employees of gaming company Crown are currently being detained in China, while in March, China also prevented Feng Chongyi, a Chinese professor teaching at a Sydney university, from leaving the country. China in 2009 arrested employees of mining giant Rio Tinto, including an Australian national.

Canberra is due to release a foreign policy white paper this year, which lays out Australia’s vision for its foreign relations for the next decade, for the first time since 2003. A recent speech by foreign minister Julie Bishop—which came just ahead of a visit to Australia by Chinese premier Li Keqiang—suggests that at least for the near future, Australia will hold the line on China. Speaking in Singapore, Bishop called on the US to assert its leadership role in the region in the face of rising tensions in the South China Sea, and warned that undemocratic powers like China could undermine Australia’s “preferred” democracy-led order.

White, the former Australian defense official, criticized Bishop’s speech as “a ringing call for yesterday.”

“We can’t not accept China playing a bigger leadership role in the region because it’s not a democracy. It’s just wildly unrealistic,” he said. “We’re not comfortable with it but China will play a bigger role and we have to learn how to deal with that.”
https://qz.com/971330/australia-is-...s-ally-america-and-its-economic-backer-china/
 
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Australia is at a point where it has to choose between its ally America and its economic backer China
rts13hml-e1493371051542.jpg

May 02, 2017

With America’s commitment to Asia-Pacific security looking shaky and China’s economic—and military—might rising, a peculiarly Australian question is at the forefront: Are we Asian or Western? It’s a dilemma not just of cultural identity—but about which major power Australia’s future hinges on.

“We haven’t had to choose in the past,” said Hugh White, a former official in Australia’s defense department who now teaches at Australian National University (ANU). But with a more isolationist Trump administration in power in the US, “Australia now has to think for the first time in its history what kind of place it wants to make for itself when Asia is not dominated by an Anglo-Saxon power.”

As a former British colony with a majority white population, Australia has for much of its history viewed itself as an Anglosphere country despite its proximity to rising Asian powers like Indonesia and China. Australia has a long-standing alliance with the US, and is arguably America’s most loyal ally on the battlefield. The country also hosts a number of US bases, including over a thousand marines stationed in the northern city of Darwin, as part of president Barack Obama’s “pivot to Asia. (paywall)”

Australia started to consider its place in Asia in a more serious way in the early 1990s, as the country, mired in recession, looked with trepidation (paywall) at Asia’s rapidly growing economies. Then prime minister Paul Keating warned in a speech in 1992 that Australia should no longer be dragged down by “Anglophilia and torpor.” The height of Australia’s cultural embrace of China arguably came during the administration of Kevin Rudd, a fluent Mandarin speaker. And Australia has also, in the past decade, become a much more multicultural country, with Chinese now the second-most common language spoken in Australian homes.

But Australia is still far too passive when it comes to China’s ascendancy, according to Linda Jakobson, founder of China Matters, a public-policy initiative based in Sydney.

“Australia has had a pretty easy equation for several decades now. Prosperity has continued in Australia as it ships resources to China, which has also contributed to prosperity in China. One hasn’t had to try very hard,” said Jakobson. “Australians need to much more deeply think about how they are going to navigate the region as China becomes more dominant.”

Location, location, location

While America dithers over its commitment to Asia, Australians know how their economic bread is buttered.

China wants everything from minerals to steaks to education from Australia, and is now Australia’s biggest trading partner in terms of imports and exports. According to a recent KPMG report, Chinese investment in Australia in 2016 hit a new record (pdf) since the financial crisis, with a record amount going into agriculture, as China’s middle class seeks safer food sources in ever-growing numbers. China is also the biggest source of foreign students to the country.

Attitudes toward China among Australia are also warming—particularly among the younger generation—as disenchantment toward the US grows, according to polling conducted by the Lowy Institute, a Sydney-based think tank. Trump, after all, did kick off his presidency by insulting a number of nations around the world, including Australia, and reportedly held an unfriendly phone call with prime minister Malcolm Turnbull.

“In America now we have Donald Trump, and that is the biggest wake-up call for clear thinking about America at least since the Vietnam War years,” said Stephen FitzGerald, Australia’s first ambassador to the People’s Republic of China, in a March speech. “This is not to say there hasn’t been cause in the years between; there just hasn’t been the scale of shock.”

Gift horse

Letting go of Australia’s Anglo-Saxon past, however, is neither easy, nor imminent.

While China’s gargantuan appetite for Australian products has shielded the country from the worst effects of the global financial crisis, Australians also recognize that this has come at a cost. Many blame the influx of Chinese money for fueling a property boom that has put home ownership out of reach for most Australians in major cities. And while Chinese demand for goods like wool and health supplements seems innocuous, there are growing concerns that China is able to transform its economic power over Australia into political leverage. Last year, a series of political donations scandals linked to Chinese donors raised questions over whether Australian politicians were vulnerable to security risks. Investments into more sensitive areas like farmland and infrastructure are also a source of worry—Australia last year rejected a Chinese bidder from buying a stake in power network Ausgrid.

Rory Medcalf, a professor at ANU, warned in a recent paper that Australia is overstating China’s economic leverage and should be ready to push back if China attempts to use its economic power as a form of coercion—a recommendation that has particular resonance at a time when China has applied that tactic to try and force Taiwan and South Korea into political submission.

“The risk is that Australia will buy the story that their economy is so comprehensively dependent on China that Australia cannot afford to cause China much difficulty on security and political issues, even when our interests diverge,” he wrote, adding that in terms of foreign direct investment in Australia, China still stands far behind the US, UK, and Japan. There are also no easy substitutes for goods like Australia’s iron ore if China wanted to reduce its reliance on Australian resources, he added, and exports of coal, tourism, and education to China make up less than 1% of Australia’s GDP.

Australia has pushed back. Canberra decided to shelve an extradition treaty with China as politicians expressed concerns over China’s human rights record—three Australian employees of gaming company Crown are currently being detained in China, while in March, China also prevented Feng Chongyi, a Chinese professor teaching at a Sydney university, from leaving the country. China in 2009 arrested employees of mining giant Rio Tinto, including an Australian national.

Canberra is due to release a foreign policy white paper this year, which lays out Australia’s vision for its foreign relations for the next decade, for the first time since 2003. A recent speech by foreign minister Julie Bishop—which came just ahead of a visit to Australia by Chinese premier Li Keqiang—suggests that at least for the near future, Australia will hold the line on China. Speaking in Singapore, Bishop called on the US to assert its leadership role in the region in the face of rising tensions in the South China Sea, and warned that undemocratic powers like China could undermine Australia’s “preferred” democracy-led order.

White, the former Australian defense official, criticized Bishop’s speech as “a ringing call for yesterday.”

“We can’t not accept China playing a bigger leadership role in the region because it’s not a democracy. It’s just wildly unrealistic,” he said. “We’re not comfortable with it but China will play a bigger role and we have to learn how to deal with that.”
https://qz.com/971330/australia-is-...s-ally-america-and-its-economic-backer-china/

Please, do choose, let's end this once and for all, and I guess EVERYONE but Mr White will know who Australia is going to choose.

The government have said and illustrated again and again, they will not abandon US as an Allies, even with this smug face US President, so, please do go ahead and choose.

Also, he talked about we don't have to choose earlier this year? Why he is now saying it's time to choose?? lol Dude, this guy have been flipping and flopping all over the place, in 2013, he said we need to choose, in 2015, he said US need to share, in 2017 he said we don't need to choose, and now we going back to it's time we need to choose?? lol

We in ANU all know this guy is a joke...
 
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Please, do choose, let's end this once and for all, and I guess EVERYONE but Mr White will know who Australia is going to choose.

The government have said and illustrated again and again, they will not abandon US as an Allies, even with this smug face US President, so, please do go ahead and choose.

Also, he talked about we don't have to choose earlier this year? Why he is now saying it's time to choose?? lol Dude, this guy have been flipping and flopping all over the place, in 2013, he said we need to choose, in 2015, he said US need to share, in 2017 he said we don't need to choose, and now we going back to it's time we need to choose?? lol

We in ANU all know this guy is a joke...

Hmmm...they mentioned restrictions on Chinese companies buying stuff due to security concerns...ever hear of any restrictions on US companies buying sensitive stuff?

I believe the second largest landowner in Australia is an American company. The first is Australian.
 
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Hmmm...they mentioned restrictions on Chinese companies buying stuff due to security concerns...ever hear of any restrictions on US companies buying sensitive stuff?

I believe the second largest landowner in Australia is an American company. The first is Australian.

Well AU is in a military alliance with America + co

so it makes sense for them to do that.

Question is how long China will continue tolerating it?
 
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We can’t not accept China playing a bigger leadership role in the region because it’s not a democracy. It’s just wildly unrealistic,” he said. “We’re not comfortable with it but China will play a bigger role and we have to learn how to deal with that.”


A recent speech by foreign minister Julie Bishop—which came just ahead of a visit to Australia by Chinese premier Li Keqiang—suggests that at least for the near future, Australia will hold the line on China.

Interesting parts..
 
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Hmmm...they mentioned restrictions on Chinese companies buying stuff due to security concerns...ever hear of any restrictions on US companies buying sensitive stuff?

I believe the second largest landowner in Australia is an American company. The first is Australian.
Is the ban going to enforce forever? Is unrestricted for US can last forever? Policy can change. Australia a small population country which is far from Europe and North America if needs to survive, it needs to cling onto the region that is nearest.

Australia is feeling the heat of the nearest rival Indonesia growing economic and 250milliom population. If Australia do not wish to be lack behind, it need more China economic help. China will not help Australia fully unless it abandon US and stop leasing bases for USN as staging ground for useless freedom of navigation in SCS.

The so called threat of China to Australia is nothing but make up as scare crow. As if China is going to invade Australia. You think is colonia times? US chances of invading Australia is higher compare to China invade given US past record of invading sovereignty nations.
 
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Is the ban going to enforce forever? Is unrestricted for US can last forever? Policy can change. Australia a small population country which is far from Europe and North America if needs to survive, it needs to cling onto the region that is nearest.

Australia is feeling the heat of the nearest rival Indonesia growing economic and 250milliom population. If Australia do not wish to be lack behind, it need more China economic help. China will not help Australia fully unless it abandon US and stop leasing bases for USN as staging ground for useless freedom of navigation in SCS.

The so called threat of China to Australia is nothing but make up as scare crow. As if China is going to invade Australia. You think is colonia times? US chances of invading Australia is higher compare to China invade given US past record of invading sovereignty nations.

I don't think Australia allows the US to have joint military bases on their soil because they are afraid of Japan.

eg: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pine_Gap
 
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Hmmm...they mentioned restrictions on Chinese companies buying stuff due to security concerns...ever hear of any restrictions on US companies buying sensitive stuff?

I believe the second largest landowner in Australia is an American company. The first is Australian.

US is exempted for many requirement on FIRB as per ANZUS treaty, for example, an American buying properties is most likely to be exempted and most case were not even considered in FIRB.

China have about 30,000 case of FIRB application in 2016 on the other hand, only some 400 cases was considered in FIRB that was US origin. US application are mostly defence related issue, or high value investment, while for a Chinese citizen, they will have to lodge a FIRB application if they want to buy a house over 1 millions.

Yes, US held the second largest land ownership in Australia. I believe it was a company called "Cargill" which own approximately 18% of agricultural land in Australia.

Is the ban going to enforce forever? Is unrestricted for US can last forever? Policy can change. Australia a small population country which is far from Europe and North America if needs to survive, it needs to cling onto the region that is nearest.

Australia is feeling the heat of the nearest rival Indonesia growing economic and 250milliom population. If Australia do not wish to be lack behind, it need more China economic help. China will not help Australia fully unless it abandon US and stop leasing bases for USN as staging ground for useless freedom of navigation in SCS.

The so called threat of China to Australia is nothing but make up as scare crow. As if China is going to invade Australia. You think is colonia times? US chances of invading Australia is higher compare to China invade given US past record of invading sovereignty nations.

It's nothing about Invasion, it's about the quantity of investment.

China is not the biggest investor of Australia, it was the US, by year, China may be catching up, but you did not factor in the fact that US have been investing in Australia since 1930s. China only started at the end of 1990s, you can look at the US investment vs Chinese Investment is (US) 26% to (China) 3% as of 2016

http://treasury.gov.au/~/media/Treasury/Publications and Media/Publications/2016/Foreign investment into Australia/Downloads/PDF/TWP_201601_Foreign_Investment.ashx

http://dfat.gov.au/trade/topics/investment/Pages/which-countries-invest-in-australia.aspx

Chinese pies is good, but still not at good as the US and EU, plus, according to FIRB, Chinese investment are mostly in residential properties, which does not generate much direct contribution, more than half of 46 billions investment by China in 2015 is from residential estate (26 billions or 53%) and since the FIRB reform, the residential market will soon be close off to Chinese, which mean the number of total investment from China is not going to be big.

https://cdn.tspace.gov.au/uploads/sites/79/2016/03/FIRB-AR-2014-15.pdf

In short, it will take a long time for China to dislodge US as the primary investor in Australia, if at all, and that, plus the defence ties is the reason why this cannot dislodge a US and Aus relation. The only way you can break this is for China to actually invade Australia and occupied it. Otherwise Australia is and always will be sided with US, not China.

Interesting parts..

Hugh White is a conflicted dude, I think he is living in La-La Land instead of reality.
 
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Now Australians are hesitant for their choice and a decade from now it won't be hesitant and it would be so clear to them by then.
 
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Now Australians are hesitant for their choice and a decade from now it won't be hesitant and it would be so clear to them by then.

Yes, it would be clear it would still be the American......

I don't think Australia allows the US to have joint military bases on their soil because they are afraid of Japan.

eg: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pine_Gap

Pine Gap is actually very old base, we have one in Katherine at Bradshaw Station. Which hold USMC Training facilities for a whole Regiment (1600 men) and guess who are they training to fight with??

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-08-20/meet-the-us-marines-in-australia/5678272

Meet US Marines from 4th Regiment training in the Northern Territory, Australia
By Jesse Dorsett
Updated 20 Aug 2014, 10:41pmWed 20 Aug 2014, 10:41pm

Sorry, this video has expired
Video: US Marine fires a shoulder launched rocket during training in the NT (ABC News)
Related Story: US Marines locked and loaded for joint exercise

Map: Timber Creek 0852 Photo: US Marine Lance Corporal Food Service Specialist Michael Silva (ABC News: Jesse Dorsett)


"We supply food for everyone... [starting with] breakfast to boost morale in the morning. Where we eat, we call that a 'chow hall', so we just call food 'chow'. It's always been like that," Michael Silva said.

"As of right now we are pretty much in charge of the camp, as 4th Marine Regiment. But we're also here to support everyone else who is doing the main exercises.

"We're out here for a total of 20 days.

"The best thing is being able to travel to other countries, interact with other people. Learn what they're like, their ways of life... and them letting us come out in the middle of nowhere to tear their stuff up.

"I've already talked to my chain of command and everybody to make sure I get some training while I'm out here instead of just cooking. That way I can keep myself up with where I need to be, not only with chow but also as a Marine.

"The hardest thing about being a marine, especially for us, is to keep ourselves physically conditioned. For chow hall Marines, it's very hard to do because we work such long hours."

Lance Corporal Stanton Elliso, Intelligence Specialist, USMC
Photo: US Marine Intelligence Specialist Lance Corporal Stanton Elliso (ABC News: Jesse Dorsett)


"There is a lot of secrecy," Stanton Elliso said.

"We have to have a clearance. If you don't have a clearance you can't touch our equipment, or come near anything we do... otherwise it's punishable.

"We deal in two different parts. The white cell and the red cell. Red cell is making up mock enemy tactics and the white cell will be counteracting threats.

"The hardest thing, besides PT (physical training) is probably early hour work. You have to get up at 4 o'clock to do things, or 3 o'clock in the morning.

"Because we're a close knit group of people who can just bond wherever we are. No matter who we are.

"I've been in for about a year and a half almost two years now. The best thing is the camaraderie.

"I've never really had people to be around until I joined the Marine Corps."

Medical Officer Jonathan Nowaczyk, US Navy
Photo: US Navy Medical Officer HM1 John Nowaczyk (ABC: Jesse Dorsett)


"I'm a preventive medicine technician... anything public health related as far as water, infectious diseases, sanitation and hygiene, I advise and recommend command on those issues," Jonathan Nowaczyk said.

"Depending on what kind of conditions you're going to be living in, you're going to be presented with all kind of obstacles and challenges. Any issues that come up with that we take the proper course of action depending what the issue is.

"Being a Corps man in the United States Navy, we have the opportunity and the privilege to serve alongside our Marine Corps brethren.

"We are their only medical asset that are attached with them. They rely on us when something goes wrong... and we rely on them to keep us alive.

"I've been in the Navy for 12 years. I never thought I'd be in Australia, very friendly people.

"I can understand everything. I can read all the signs."

Corporal Alexander Neal, Landing Support Specialist, USMC
Photo: US Marine Landing Support Specialist Corporal Alexander Neal (ABC: Jesse Dorsett)


"We specialise in external lifts with helicopters. We mainly do resupply missions to Marines out in the field," Alexander Neal said.

"On the ground we have a team set up, people that are designated to guide the helicopter in so the pilots know where to go exactly. We have people underneath the helicopter that actually hook the load on.

"Landing support specialists, we wear red patches on both sides of our trousers.

"World War Two was when we first got our red patches to distinguish us from infantry. They'd end up getting mixed up in our job and then we would actually go out doing patrol."

"To stop that from happening, Marine Corps put red patches to keep us on the beach.

"Australia is the first place is the first place we've travelled to.

"The best thing about being a Marine, I would say just working together with the people who you've known for a while. Becoming a family."

Lance Corporal Kylie Porter, Field Radio Operator, USMC
Photo: US Marine Field Radio Operator Lance Corporal Kylie Porter (ABC: Jesse Dorsett)


"I've been in the Northern Territory for about two months now," Kylie Porter said.

"We got lucky, getting in the dry season so the weather is actually very nice out here. There's a nice breeze and it gets pretty chilly at night but it's perfect for us.

"When we first got here we got weekends off. We got to see a couple of the sights... saw the ocean, went to Mindil Beach.

"We love Australia. Everyone is friendly. It's always nice to make new friends.

"We're supporting Pitch Black and also Operation Koolendong at this time... controlling the flights and deconflicting the flights. Making sure planes are keeping their elevation and don't run into each other.

"Best thing about being a Marine is being able to go places. I've been to multiple different countries.

"Some of the conditions we get put in are a lot rougher than others get the opportunity to be put through. But we work work through it. That's one thing about the Marine Corps, we're a big family.

"It is quite rare [women in the USMC] but there is a handful of us. It's a very small percentage. But we're strong, we're here."
 
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Now Australians are hesitant for their choice and a decade from now it won't be hesitant and it would be so clear to them by then.

Even a 100 hundred years from now Australia will always side with America and china will not even be in the equation.
 
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You tend to know that if your citizen of Australia, lived here for the past 30 yrs and make it your home.
I am a Chinese citizen but I don't really know what will happen in China 100 years from now, so you must be really good.
 
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Well it is well understood
  • Canada - Australia , may be Newzeland , or Island territories all will Side with UK

UK is generally cool with China
  • UK-China patched relations with Hong Kong deal long time ago

Austrlia /China relations are set to flourish normally as regional neighbours as both countries are rich in potential , unlike the Aparthied country India


Similarly massive push between Canada /China underway

Not sure on US however they like to play cop cop too often around world
 
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