Lankan Ranger
ELITE MEMBER
- Joined
- Aug 9, 2009
- Messages
- 12,550
- Reaction score
- 0
After a prolonged economic boom, allowing Asia's defence budgets to rise faster than Europe's for many years, the lines on the graph have now crossed for the first time in centuries.
Last year, Asian military budgets totalled £173 billion, compared with £144 billion among Europe's Nato members. The era when Western Europe was the world's most important centre of military might after America and Russia is drawing to a close.
But this rapid expansion of firepower is taking place in a divided continent. Asia is polarised between countries who rely on America to guarantee their security and those who look to China.
South Korea, Japan and Australia all have bilateral security treaties with the US. Taiwan, although lacking a formal treaty, also bases its defence policy on Washington's backing.
Meanwhile, China has countered by creating its own network of informal alliances. Sri Lanka, Pakistan and Myanmar all look to Beijing as their crucial regional ally. So does North Korea, despite the bitterness over its second nuclear test last week.
China's ambitious modernisation of its armed forces and the desire of its neighbours not to live in Beijing's shadow is the single most important cause of Asia's military transformation.
Beijing's official defence budget has risen by about 15 per cent every year for most of the last decade. Last year, it increased by 19 per cent on 2007.
Officially, China spent £38 billion on its armed forces in 2008, but experts believe this disguises the real figure. The most cautious estimate puts Beijing's total military expenditure at twice the official level: £76 billion.
None of this threatens America's standing as the world's dominant military power. With an outlay of £374 billion last year, the US spends about as much on its armed forces as the rest of the world combined. Washington's overwhelming advantage will last for generations to come.
Having overtaken Europe, however, Asian nations face a crucial challenge. Their new military strength has not been matched by the creation of a reliable security alliance embracing the entire region. Asia, divided between allies of America and China, has no equivalent of Nato.
The continent's only regional military forum is organised by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), a London-based think tank.
The Shangri-La dialogue in Singapore provides the only setting where all Asia's defence ministers and military chiefs can actually meet.
At this conference, General Ma Xiaotian, the deputy chief of China's general staff, admonished his neighbours with a stridency that betrayed his country's new assertiveness.
"The Cold War mentality, military confrontations, disrespect of existing agreements and interference in other countries' internal affairs still persist," he said. "China opposes the enlargement of the existing bilateral military alliances in Asia-Pacific, which were left over from the Cold War."
So deep is the mistrust between the world's newest military powers that they need a British think tank to bring them together. They also make elaborate efforts to skirt around their region's central military development: the overhaul of China's armed forces.
For the first time in a decade, Australia has produced a defence White Paper proposing the country's biggest naval build-up since the Second World War.
In public, however, officials are coy about the reasons for this. Joel Fitzgibbon, the Australian defence minister, declined to confirm or deny the link to China.
"We're experiencing big shifts in the distribution of power in the Asian-Pacific region. Australia has produced a White Paper which acknowledges that and produces a force structure and a capability which we think we need over the course of the coming decades to protect our continent and, of course, we make no apology for that," he told The Daily Telegraph.
Asia's smaller players are anxious to avoid being forced to choose between America or China.
"If there were to be some sort of crisis in the Taiwan Straits, into which the US would be drawn militarily, it would be clear that China and the US would require their regional partners to express a position on this," said Adam Ward, the IISS director of studies. "The fear of having to choose sides is very strong in South East Asian states. That's the kind of polarisation that could happen."
Behind all this lies general apprehension over China's rise. So far, Beijing has followed a moderate foreign policy based on guaranteeing domestic stability. President Hu Jintao's government insists that it will never behave like other rising powers and seek regional dominance.
"The Chinese say, 'we get this, we're not about that'," said Mr Ward. "But that's this generation of leaders, who are totally preoccupied by the need for domestic economic growth and stability. In 20 or 30 years time, China will be much richer, it may be politically more stable and more confident. They may feel they can acquire more of the accoutrements of a Great Power which means a much bigger military, deployable around the world."
From:International Institute for Strategic Studies 02 June 2009 - - Daily Telegraph - Asia's defence spending overtakes Europe's
Last year, Asian military budgets totalled £173 billion, compared with £144 billion among Europe's Nato members. The era when Western Europe was the world's most important centre of military might after America and Russia is drawing to a close.
But this rapid expansion of firepower is taking place in a divided continent. Asia is polarised between countries who rely on America to guarantee their security and those who look to China.
South Korea, Japan and Australia all have bilateral security treaties with the US. Taiwan, although lacking a formal treaty, also bases its defence policy on Washington's backing.
Meanwhile, China has countered by creating its own network of informal alliances. Sri Lanka, Pakistan and Myanmar all look to Beijing as their crucial regional ally. So does North Korea, despite the bitterness over its second nuclear test last week.
China's ambitious modernisation of its armed forces and the desire of its neighbours not to live in Beijing's shadow is the single most important cause of Asia's military transformation.
Beijing's official defence budget has risen by about 15 per cent every year for most of the last decade. Last year, it increased by 19 per cent on 2007.
Officially, China spent £38 billion on its armed forces in 2008, but experts believe this disguises the real figure. The most cautious estimate puts Beijing's total military expenditure at twice the official level: £76 billion.
None of this threatens America's standing as the world's dominant military power. With an outlay of £374 billion last year, the US spends about as much on its armed forces as the rest of the world combined. Washington's overwhelming advantage will last for generations to come.
Having overtaken Europe, however, Asian nations face a crucial challenge. Their new military strength has not been matched by the creation of a reliable security alliance embracing the entire region. Asia, divided between allies of America and China, has no equivalent of Nato.
The continent's only regional military forum is organised by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), a London-based think tank.
The Shangri-La dialogue in Singapore provides the only setting where all Asia's defence ministers and military chiefs can actually meet.
At this conference, General Ma Xiaotian, the deputy chief of China's general staff, admonished his neighbours with a stridency that betrayed his country's new assertiveness.
"The Cold War mentality, military confrontations, disrespect of existing agreements and interference in other countries' internal affairs still persist," he said. "China opposes the enlargement of the existing bilateral military alliances in Asia-Pacific, which were left over from the Cold War."
So deep is the mistrust between the world's newest military powers that they need a British think tank to bring them together. They also make elaborate efforts to skirt around their region's central military development: the overhaul of China's armed forces.
For the first time in a decade, Australia has produced a defence White Paper proposing the country's biggest naval build-up since the Second World War.
In public, however, officials are coy about the reasons for this. Joel Fitzgibbon, the Australian defence minister, declined to confirm or deny the link to China.
"We're experiencing big shifts in the distribution of power in the Asian-Pacific region. Australia has produced a White Paper which acknowledges that and produces a force structure and a capability which we think we need over the course of the coming decades to protect our continent and, of course, we make no apology for that," he told The Daily Telegraph.
Asia's smaller players are anxious to avoid being forced to choose between America or China.
"If there were to be some sort of crisis in the Taiwan Straits, into which the US would be drawn militarily, it would be clear that China and the US would require their regional partners to express a position on this," said Adam Ward, the IISS director of studies. "The fear of having to choose sides is very strong in South East Asian states. That's the kind of polarisation that could happen."
Behind all this lies general apprehension over China's rise. So far, Beijing has followed a moderate foreign policy based on guaranteeing domestic stability. President Hu Jintao's government insists that it will never behave like other rising powers and seek regional dominance.
"The Chinese say, 'we get this, we're not about that'," said Mr Ward. "But that's this generation of leaders, who are totally preoccupied by the need for domestic economic growth and stability. In 20 or 30 years time, China will be much richer, it may be politically more stable and more confident. They may feel they can acquire more of the accoutrements of a Great Power which means a much bigger military, deployable around the world."
From:International Institute for Strategic Studies 02 June 2009 - - Daily Telegraph - Asia's defence spending overtakes Europe's
