As trade war looms, the US looks confident. China, not so much

[Jlaw]

I talked about excessive liquidity and the potential risk the trade war entails because of the high dependence of RMB's stability on the USD, since you mentioned that only 0.02% of GDP will get affected.

I'm not sure whether ND is more expensive than SH (all figures I just Googled show otherwise) or whether high property prices are common across Indian cities, but India is your benchmark?

India and China has roughly the same population so it's a good benchmark. I don't remember exactly what Indian city he referred to so it may not be new Delhi.

 

[Globenim]

Coming from a hostile rag like the South China Morning posts that makes me more confident its the opposite way around.

 

[Logam42]

What s there to pretend? My job doesn't involve digesting ur massive textwall of rant.

In fact, ur fiery verbosity in composing such a super long post like post #68 only serves to prove that i struck a sore spot n demonstrate your defensiveness n resulting desperation to convince people here.

Ur very first post insinuatinuated China 'needs' indonesia to stand up to the US n China will defintely lose' in this trade conflict withouther(Indonesia). All my responses were directed at that f**king funny statement. Your backwards country aren't even a major player in trade, yet u talk of Indonesia as one.

Continue being delusional. Indonesia may have 261million people, but she is a kitten in terms of global trade n economy- not a lion that you paint her out to be. Your closest cousin would be Nigeria- so much people but all are unproductive citizens n being exploited by others.

With an abyssmal manufactured goods industry(list anything that is 'Made in Indonesia', except keretek cigarettes),her only asset is an abudance of natural resources such as palm oil, crude oil, natural latex and natural gasses that are being controlled n exploited by foreign mncs- just like how Africa n the Middle east are.

U guys are lazy n only care about making babies all day long. Indonesia a major trading power?

In ASEAN = yes, by virtue of population n natural resources.

In the league that East Asia, North America and the EU are? Hahahaha gimme a break

Thanks.

PS* I forgot to add in tin as an abundant natural resource that indonesia exports. Not to mention Royal Dutch Shell, the world's largest crude oil conglomerate- started in North Sumatra in the Dutch East Indies that is today's Indonesia. How do i know? It's all in our school history textbooks about our neighbours history.

Your long speech doesn't change the fact that

I stand by my statement n that is Indonesia's 10+ billion trade deficit is insignificant compared to China's 375billion.

Is markedly untrue, Indonesia is one out of 16 countries threatened with a 'Trade review' and 'additional tariffs' because of out large ratio of trade surplus. Thats the fact man, stop peddling your ignorant views

Ur very first post insinuatinuated China 'needs' indonesia to stand up to the US n China will defintely lose' in this trade conflict withouther(Indonesia). All my responses were directed at that f**king funny statement. Your backwards country aren't even a major player in trade, yet u talk of Indonesia as one.

Dude, how did you get that, from this???

While China is larger (way larger), Indonesia still has a surplus 2x larger than its imports (so we export 3x times more than import). China has a surplus 3x larger than its imports.

and this?

This is turning into America vs. The World.

China, EU, Indonesia, and any other country with a large trade surplus is being targeted. Trump is betting that he could bully most of us into accepting 'better terms' than risk an all out trade war but I very much doubt that any nation would be willing to simply accept being sucker punched in such an arrogant manner.

I'm sorry you lack reading comprehension but I was in no way insinuating that Indonesia was equivalent to China. I was listing the names of the countries I knew were being threatened with a trade war, of which Indonesia is one of them.

Why was Indonesia one of the countries threatened?

according to Trump [they have] 'abnormally high trade surplus'.

Fact.

Please, continue on mocking people for your own lack of english aptitude. It's taken you 3 posts to even get your meaning across, I'd suggest additional study. I hope me breaking it down so that your little brain can comprehend has helped you, I'm always happy to help people with shortcoming like you

What s there to pretend? My job doesn't involve digesting ur massive textwall of rant.

In fact, ur fiery verbosity in composing such a super long post like post #68 only serves to prove that i struck a sore spot n demonstrate your defensiveness n resulting desperation to convince people here.

Ur very first post insinuatinuated China 'needs' indonesia to stand up to the US n China will defintely lose' in this trade conflict withouther(Indonesia). All my responses were directed at that f**king funny statement. Your backwards country aren't even a major player in trade, yet u talk of Indonesia as one.

Continue being delusional. Indonesia may have 261million people, but she is a kitten in terms of global trade n economy- not a lion that you paint her out to be. Your closest cousin would be Nigeria- so much people but all are unproductive citizens n being exploited by others.

With an abyssmal manufactured goods industry(list anything that is 'Made in Indonesia', except keretek cigarettes),her only asset is an abudance of natural resources such as palm oil, crude oil, natural latex and natural gasses that are being controlled n exploited by foreign mncs- just like how Africa n the Middle east are.

U guys are lazy n only care about making babies all day long. Indonesia a major trading power?

In ASEAN = yes, by virtue of population n natural resources.

In the league that East Asia, North America and the EU are? Hahahaha gimme a break

Thanks.

PS* I forgot to add in tin as an abundant natural resource that indonesia exports. Not to mention Royal Dutch Shell, the world's largest crude oil conglomerate- started in North Sumatra in the Dutch East Indies that is today's Indonesia. How do i know? It's all in our school history textbooks about our neighbours history.

Your long speech doesn't change the fact that

I stand by my statement n that is Indonesia's 10+ billion trade deficit is insignificant compared to China's 375billion.

Is markedly untrue, Indonesia is one out of 16 countries threatened with a 'Trade review' and 'additional tariffs' because of out large ratio of trade surplus. Thats the fact man, stop peddling your ignorant views

Ur very first post insinuatinuated China 'needs' indonesia to stand up to the US n China will defintely lose' in this trade conflict withouther(Indonesia). All my responses were directed at that f**king funny statement. Your backwards country aren't even a major player in trade, yet u talk of Indonesia as one.

Dude, how did you get that, from this???

While China is larger (way larger), Indonesia still has a surplus 2x larger than its imports (so we export 3x times more than import). China has a surplus 3x larger than its imports.

and this?

This is turning into America vs. The World.

China, EU, Indonesia, and any other country with a large trade surplus is being targeted. Trump is betting that he could bully most of us into accepting 'better terms' than risk an all out trade war but I very much doubt that any nation would be willing to simply accept being sucker punched in such an arrogant manner.

I'm sorry you lack reading comprehension but I was in no way insinuating that Indonesia was equivalent to China. I was listing the names of the countries I knew were being threatened with a trade war, of which Indonesia is one of them.

Why was Indonesia one of the countries threatened?

according to Trump [they have] 'abnormally high trade surplus'.

Fact.

Please, continue on mocking people for your own lack of english aptitude. It's taken you 3 posts to even get your meaning across, I'd suggest additional study. I hope me breaking it down so that your brain can comprehend has helped you, I'm always happy to help people with shortcomings like you

 

[xunzi]

Reality is long term game china is going to win. Trump only has a 4 years term. If he is not reversing the trade policy, the people that vote for him will throw him out if he is not impeach for sexual misconduct soon. LOL

 

[ohmrlobalobayeh]

Your long speech doesn't change the fact that


Is markedly untrue, Indonesia is one out of 16 countries threatened with a 'Trade review' and 'additional tariffs' because of out large ratio of trade surplus. Thats the fact man, stop peddling your ignorant views



Dude, how did you get that, from this???



and this?


I'm sorry you lack reading comprehension but I was in no way insinuating that Indonesia was equivalent to China. I was listing the names of the countries I knew were being threatened with a trade war, of which Indonesia is one of them.

Why was Indonesia one of the countries threatened?



Fact.

Please, continue on mocking people for your own lack of english aptitude. It's taken you 3 posts to even get your meaning across, I'd suggest additional study. I hope me breaking it down so that your little brain can comprehend has helped you, I'm always happy to help people with shortcoming like you



Your long speech doesn't change the fact that


Is markedly untrue, Indonesia is one out of 16 countries threatened with a 'Trade review' and 'additional tariffs' because of out large ratio of trade surplus. Thats the fact man, stop peddling your ignorant views



Dude, how did you get that, from this???



and this?


I'm sorry you lack reading comprehension but I was in no way insinuating that Indonesia was equivalent to China. I was listing the names of the countries I knew were being threatened with a trade war, of which Indonesia is one of them.

Why was Indonesia one of the countries threatened?



Fact.

Please, continue on mocking people for your own lack of english aptitude. It's taken you 3 posts to even get your meaning across, I'd suggest additional study. I hope me breaking it down so that your brain can comprehend has helped you, I'm always happy to help people with shortcomings like you

Everybody please read post #55 and have a good laugh. Im not asking any1 to support me with my debate against this nationalistic and delusional guy- im asking people to make their own judgement.

This dude from a poor dirty island nation in the south pacific jungle backwater thinks highly of the economy of his own under-industrialised country, exploited by both the West and East for centuries beginning with the Dutch East India company in 1595 when todays Indonesia was the Netherland's Crown colony, persisting even to the present day.

Now in addition to being controlled by both Chinese n Western mncs, Indonesia is alsobegging to be put high up in BRI's priority list for infrastructure development.

10+billion compared to china's 375billion and EU's 120billion = 'huge' in his eyes and its only becos Indonesia is exporting more crude oil, palm oil, gas,tin n rubber- all natural resources- dominated sectors.


I read about US threatening Mexico, Canada, EU, China in the news all the time. I have never even read anything about Indonesia in this trade war. U think too highly of your underdeveloped nation

lololol.

Delusional beyond delusional.


dude said fact, fact, fact fact.

America would 'win' easily if it was only China vs America.

is this fact?? how is this even measurable?
and this:

America would smash China

is this a declaration or a prediction? It can also be the other way round like 'China will kick America's ***' how is this kinda wording even meant to convey seriousness ? any1 with a common sense would have brushed off your posts here as rhetorical garbage the moment u say something like this.

I repeat, let ppl make their own judgement

 

[Feng Leng]

why do u say so?? it's owned by alibaba.

Just becos this single writer is having pessimistic views about his own country, does not mean the newspaper itself is not credible.

SCMP was founded by Western colonialist ruling class when HK was a colony. It is specifically China-hating (or at least disliking) but dares to have the name "China" in its name to confuse people.

 

[ohmrlobalobayeh]

SCMP was founded by Western colonialist ruling class when HK was a colony. It is specifically China-hating (or at least disliking) but dares to have the name "China" in its name to confuse people.

It's owned by Alibaba now. All articles would have been vetoed if they were deemed to be harmful to the image of China. The fact it got published proves it's view is moderated. Why would you wanna read circle-jerking article pieces all the time? It's good to have some pessimistic pov of the motherland.

I read about local Singaporean columnists airing his/her negative views about the government all the time, yet I don't feel they r less patriotic than I am.

 

[Logam42]

@eldarimari I think people can judge for themselves. Did I act delusional? Was I right to defend my country after some random guy just started mocking it out of the blue? Have you refuted a single one of my arguments or simply shifted to ad hominem?

No need to try and shift to the discussion of history and the future. Funny now that you can't win on your own arguments you instead start to insult my nationality.

I believe that Singapore is a wonderful country, full of smart people. You sadly, aren't one of them.

 

[bbccdd1470]

It's owned by Alibaba now. All articles would have been vetoed if they were deemed to be harmful to the image of China

No, actually this is not the case. Before the Alibaba purchased the SCMP, all of the editors in SCMP came out and against the purchase, so Alibaba guaranteed the freedom of editing. SCMP is still the same SCMP.

 

[ohmrlobalobayeh]

@eldarimari I think people can judge for themselves. Did I act delusional? Was I right to defend my country after some random guy just started mocking it out of the blue? Have you refuted a single one of my arguments or simply shifted to ad hominem?

No need to try and shift to the discussion of history and the future. Funny now that you can't win on your own arguments you instead start to insult my nationality.

I believe that Singapore is a wonderful country, full of smart people. You sadly, aren't one of them.

i will repeated 1 last time(the 3rd time)- refer to post #55 for all your answers, because all my statements are directed at that. Also, refute me by proving everything that i said about Indonesia is false; that none of them are true. Did i bruised some serious ego here?? hahaha.

You should feel insulted the moment u said painted a picture that China needs Indonesia to stand up to the US

Have you refuted a single one of my arguments or simply shifted to ad hominem?

U dont even pose any arguements worthy for me to refute- just shit loads of so-called 'facts', facts', 'facts','facts', 'facts', facts', facts', self-concocted figures and declarations when they are merely your own blindly-nationalistic rhetoric intended to put up a ludicrous facade that underdeveloped Indonesia is a 'world trading power not to be reckon with'.

I already told u, your entire posts here can already be discarded as garbage when u use colourful phrases like 'America will smash China', "America would 'win' easily if it was only China vs America', bla bla bla~~~.

I believe that Singapore is a wonderful country, full of smart people. You sadly, aren't one of them.

this guy doesnt even realise he is doing exactly this himself while accusing me of 'insulting him' at the same time lololol. I cant find any of my posts that i insulted him personally- just posting the ugly truth about his country that he keeps avoiding to talk about lololol.

I can truly insult u if u want now:

https://www.worlddata.info/iq-by-country.php

1 Singapore 108
2 Hong Kong 108
3 Taiwan 106
4 South Korea 106
5 Japan 105
6 China 104





70 Indonesia 84





There u go, East Asian IQ vs Maritime Austronesian IQ- that's the difference.




You're not even fit to talk about intelligence. Truly smart people dont even realise they are smart most of the time.





Low iq is low IQ. seems like the Dutch should never have left u guys on your own. U guys need others to rule over u all.

China should send the 8th Zhenghe voyage to go colonise Indonesia now and bolster the ranks of the tiny amount of Chinese already there. maybe indonesian's average IQ will increase

go back to farming your fields instead of surfing PDF- heard internets cost a bomb in indonesia lololol.

Thanks.

 

[Götterdämmerung]

Look how confident the US looks like:

 

[Logam42]

Snip

Notice how I've never insulted Singapore while you've been busy insulting me, and my nation's entire history
I know your shortcomings are your own, and thus I direct my ridicule at YOU, not your nation, not your ancestors, and not your ethnicity.

China and the rest of the world, including Indonesia, EU, and the other 16 countries being targeted for trade review should stand up to America, to show America that it can't expect to engage in tarrifs that hurt other nations economies without hurting itself.

I guess if you think we should all just bow down to America and continue treating its exports fairly after it denies our exports the same rights then I really don't see any reason to argue. That's such a non-sensical position to take its hilarious, like a guy being robbed insisting the thieves are just 'friends'.

I'll be gracious and show some data you yourself have been pathetically unable to do.

And then from http://www.worldstopexports.com/chinas-top-import-partners/
China's exports:
(1) United States: US$431.7 billion (19% of total Chinese exports)
USA exports:
(3) China: $130.4 billion (8.4%)

So if we put down a simple math equation, China has more to lose in a China vs America showdown
China direct GDP threatened: 0.19 x 0.20 = 0.038 = 3.8%
USA direct GDP threatened : 0.084 x 0.12 = 0.01 = ~1%

That's why it's painfully obvious if China and the USA gets into a trade war, China will lose, because America can hurt it more. As you stated yourself, America is still the largest consumer economy on Earth, so it buys more than it sells. But the fact is that Trump is going to put all 12% of USA's export-reliant GDP at risk because he's starting a trade war with almost everyone, a USA vs World showdown, will see the utter destruction of the US economy.

I'm sure you're still going to be an obstinate little brat, but there's the logic and the proof. Try and twist it all you want, numbers are numbers. So is the announcement of tarrifs made by Trumps administration. That's why China is more cautious in entering this trade war, because it knows that although the result will hurt both America and China, China will hurt more.

As a general rule of thumb, if a trade war starts between two economies, the economy with the trade surplus is the most at risk.

Very well everyone, sorry for this derail, I usually try not to engage in forum debates, but this guy really push a lot of buttons. He insulted me and everything related to me, shifted the arguments multiple times like a 2 cent lawyer, and then couldn't even read properly. I'll be ignoring any of his future posts.

@eldarlmari I really hope this post isn't so long your small brain fails you again and you claim you're 'too lazy' to argue any more.

EDIT: See below, yet another low effort post showing zero data by him trying to twist my words. Quality!

 

[ohmrlobalobayeh]

Notice how I've never insulted Singapore while you've been busy insulting me, and my nation's entire history
I know your shortcomings are your own, and thus I direct my ridicule at YOU, not your nation, not your ancestors, and not your ethnicity.

China and the rest of the world, including Indonesia, EU, and the other 16 countries being targeted for trade review should stand up to America, to show America that it can't expect to engage in tarrifs that hurt other nations economies without hurting itself.

I guess if you think we should all just bow down to America and continue treating its exports fairly after it denies our exports the same rights then I really don't see any reason to argue. That's such a non-sensical position to take its hilarious, like a guy being robbed insisting the thieves are just 'friends'.

I'll be gracious and show some data you yourself have been pathetically unable to do.

View attachment 485896View attachment 485899
And then from http://www.worldstopexports.com/chinas-top-import-partners/
China's exports:
(1) United States: US$431.7 billion (19% of total Chinese exports)
USA exports:
(3) China: $130.4 billion (8.4%)

So if we put down a simple math equation, China has more to lose in a China vs America showdown
China direct GDP threatened: 0.19 x 0.20 = 0.038 = 3.8%
USA direct GDP threatened : 0.084 x 0.12 = 0.01 = ~1%

That's why it's painfully obvious if China and the USA gets into a trade war, China will lose, because America can hurt it more. As you stated yourself, America is still the largest consumer economy on Earth, so it buys more than it sells. But the fact is that Trump is going to put all 12% of USA's export-reliant GDP at risk because he's starting a trade war with almost everyone, a USA vs World showdown, will see the utter destruction of the US economy.

I'm sure you're still going to be an obstinate little brat, but there's the logic and the proof. Try and twist it all you want, numbers are numbers. So is the announcement of tarrifs made by Trumps administration. That's why China is more cautious in entering this trade war, because it knows that although the result will hurt both America and China, China will hurt more.

As a general rule of thumb, if a trade war starts between two economies, the economy with the trade surplus is the most at risk.

Very well everyone, sorry for this derail, I usually try not to engage in forum debates, but this guy really push a lot of buttons. He insulted me and everything related to me, shifted the arguments multiple times like a 2 cent lawyer, and then couldn't even read properly. I'll be ignoring any of his future posts.

@eldarlmari I really hope this post isn't so long your small brain fails you again and you claim you're 'too lazy' to argue any more.

I already told u, whatever u posts here can already be discarded at garbage the moment u posted shit like 'America will smash China' bla bla bla.
Via these,U' ve thus, already revealed your anti-sinitic mindset. Hence, your viewpoint is already skewed n biased right from the start.

No1 will take whatever bullshit you are concoting seriously- at least not those on China- such as those irrelevant graphs n diagram which doesnt even consider the many other weapons that china can employ besides the tariffs for tariffs tactic.

Instead u gave a blanket statement that america will utterly own china in this trade when panicking American industry leaders are lobbying US senators to pressure Trump's advisors team to reach for a solution.

Also, u r the 1 that dragged indonesia into the picture. So its funny how u subconsciously kept talking about Singapore when the topic was originally about US, China n indonesia( courtesy of u)

Just becos I hurt your ego? By pointing indonesia's( rem, u dragged her in) pathetic economic state of affairs?

Face it, U guys don't even manufacture any shit- just keretek cigarettes that Americans don't even bother to smoke( I love them though, though not everyone appreciates it's tropical spicy flavor). Thus selling off your country's natural assets like oil n gas is the only way to earn some export-derived gdp

Being exploited for natural resources. In this manner, indonesia is just like the middle East n africa- no?

U chose to take it personally n defensively n don't even realize all these yourself.

I dont even know why im replying to the same repeititive cow kud that u keep regurgitating.






Get the f**k out of this thread if are here to propagate your anti China sentiments.

 

[ohmrlobalobayeh]

I already told u, whatever u posts here can already be discarded at garbage the moment u posted shit like 'America will smash China' bla bla bla.
Via these,U' ve thus, already revealed your anti-sinitic mindset. Hence, your viewpoint is already skewed n biased right from the start.

No1 will take whatever bullshit you are concoting seriously- at least not those on China- such as those irrelevant graphs n diagram which doesnt even consider the many other weapons that china can employ besides the tariffs for tariffs tactic.

Instead u gave a blanket statement that america will utterly own china in this trade when panicking American industry leaders are lobbying US senators to pressure Trump's advisors team to reach for a solution.

Also, u r the 1 that dragged indonesia into the picture. So its funny how u subconsciously kept talking about Singapore when the topic was originally about US, China n indonesia( courtesy of u)

Just becos I hurt your ego? By pointing indonesia's( rem, u dragged her in) pathetic economic state of affairs?

Face it, U guys don't even manufacture any shit- just keretek cigarettes that Americans don't even bother to smoke( I love them though, though not everyone appreciates it's tropical spicy flavor). Thus selling off your country's natural assets like oil n gas is the only way to earn some export-derived gdp

Being exploited for natural resources. In this manner, indonesia is just like the middle East n africa- no?

U chose to take it personally n defensively n don't even realize all these this yourself.

I dont even know why im replying to the same repeititive cow kud that u keep regurgitating.






Get the f**k out of this thread if are here to propagate your anti China sentiments.

BTW, those graphs u've linked is from the same url that i linked to show indonesia's GIGANTIC trade amounts with it's largest partner.(which isn't even the US) U tried acting smart when your jungle austronesian iq limits the intellectual distance u can ever reach lolololol.

You are icorrigible.

Thanks

 

[Viva_Viet]

New tariffs threatened by the US would be more harmful to China than the first batch, says bank CEO

• The proposed U.S. tariffs on an additional $200 billion in Chinese goods, if implemented, could harm the world's second-largest economy, said Piyush Gupta, CEO of Singapore’s DBS Bank.
• That’s because the targeted Chinese goods include a greater number of finished products, which can be replaced by similar ones from other sources, he said.

Yen Nee Lee
Published 20 Hours AgoCNBC.com


The cause for worry is the 'war' on technology, not trade: DBS 21 Hours Ago | 08:25
The proposed U.S. tariffs on an additional $200 billion in Chinese goods would hit the world’s second-largest economy more severely than the previous custom duties did, according to the chief executive of Southeast Asia’s largest bank.

That’s because the latest list of targeted Chinese goods includes a greater number of finished products, which can be replaced by similar ones from other sources, Piyush Gupta, the CEO of Singapore’s DBS Bank, said on Friday.

The Trump administration on Tuesday said it plans to impose 10 percent tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese goods, which include refrigerators, electronics, cotton and auto parts. The tariffs will undergo a two-month review process, with hearings in August.


Those tariffs, if implemented, “might start biting a little bit more in terms of the volume of trade” compared to the levies on $34 billion in Chinese goods that came into effect on July 6, Gupta told CNBC’s Martin Soong at the DBS Asian Insights Conference in Singapore.

Impact from the earlier round of U.S. tariffs on the Chinese economy may be limited as there aren’t many alternatives to those affected goods, he said.

“I think most of these relate to components mostly in the mobile phone and the personal computer supply chain. I think alternate sources of supply are limited,” the CEO said.

“The total impact is probably price increases of magnitude of 5 to 10 percent, my own sense is these will be passed on to the end consumer or perhaps absorbed by the supply chain. I don’t think these will reduce China’s export volume anytime soon. It’ll take at least two to three years for the supply chain to be recreated,” he added.

Trade-reliant economy already hit
Even before tensions between China and the U.S. turned into a full-blown trade war, some trade-dependent economies have experienced a slowdown in growth.

Singapore, a Southeast Asian country with one of the highest trade-to-GDP ratio in the world, said advance estimates point to its second-quarter growth missing forecasts. The economy is expected to expand by 3.8 percent year-over-year in the second quarter, short of the 4 percent growth estimated by Reuters.

Economists expect rising trade tensions to further threaten growth in open economies such as Singapore. For Gupta, it’s a concern that the world is moving “backward” after making much progress to promote a more open trading system.

“I think it’s safe to say that the world has benefited enormously from an open trading system ... so anything that goes backward from that is a cause for concern,” said Gupta.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/13/dbs-ceo-piyush-gupta-on-impact-of-us-china-trade-war.html