Hey everyone, I'm new to the forum.
Seeing as mostly Turks are on this thread, I'm expecting to encounter some flame wars. I don't intend to piss anyone off on purpose, but there are numerous misconceptions about Armenia and Azerbaijan that need to be corrected.
First, Armenians are not Iranian people. Both Armenians and Iranians are Indo-Aryan, and from there they have split into two different ethnicity. Armenian is not an Iranic language and they are not similar (I speak both). Azerbaijani people contain synchretic elements of Persial culture, but they are Turkic people as far as I am aware.
Iranian-Azerbaijani relations are a lot more complicated than they are being portrayed in this thread. I don't know how many of you have been to Iran, but you need to understand that the fact that both people are Shia is of little significance. If anything, this fact combined with Aliyev secularism only aggravates relations. The bigger picture that most are dissmissing is that Aliyev and the Milli Majilis of Azerbaijan have laid claims to Iran. First, Aliyev has claimed in a televised event that he is president of all ethnic Azeris worldwide, which is ridiculous. Second, there was a discussion in azeri Parliament on whether to rename the country "Northern Azerbaijan", implying the existence of South in Iran. This has sowed deep distrust in Iranian regime. Not to mention the fact that, among the Azeri $1.6 purchase of Israeli weapons, Azerbaijan also bought anti missiles (which could only be directed against Iran).
Iranian Armenian relations are eternal. Iran tacitly supports Armenian control of Nagarno Karabakh, and openly trades with its population. There have been rumors of military aid (although I will address this later). Besides, Persians love Armenians, and vice versa. I have an ethnic Armenian friend who joined Iranian Army, and was promoted immediately just because. I have no doubts about the relationship between these two countries.
The military balance between the two countries is not equal, but Armenia is not far behind. Unlike Azerbaijan, Armenian Defence ministry is very secretive about its ordnance. For example, Hayastan acquired S300s from Russia in 2005, thought he public only found out in 2010 during a parade. I would not be surprised if Armenian arsenal already has Iskander-M missiles and upgraded S-300s. Also, the possibility of Iranian Shahab missiles being transferred to Armenia should not be ruled out.
None of that matters though. Any war will result from Russia's wishes, and it will turn out according to its wishes as well. If Russia deems that it is time to take out Azeri pipelines, it will give Armenia more than enough support to do so. Turkiye will not intervene for two reasons. 1. It does not want to risk defeat to Russia military, which is (arguably) superior and has nuclear weapons. 2. NATO charter does not allow members to enter bilateral military agreements with other nations. In other words, recent turk-Azeri military pact is null and void.
Again, I mean no disrespect. I'd be happy to discuss anything related to these issues.