Arab Iran Stand-off

[Tipu7]

Well written piece of writing @Neutron

But it was very ''idealistic'' piece of work ..................

Here is my take about Middle East.................solution is there, but different party have different solutions.........''key'' acceptable to every one in such a mess simple don't exist. as no one is ready to compromise on its interests............

Well................ we all want what is best of KSA and Iran, none of us want major conflict between them. Being core of opposite sects of Islam, any clash between them create huge ripples in entire Muslim world, particularly in Muslim countries where proportion of Sunni and Shia population is bit narrow..............

Firstly you have to understand that both Nations have reached the point of no return................ and not only KSA or Iran are involved in conflict, many major powers, like Russia, United States, Turkey as well as Governments of Syria, Lebanon and Iraq are also directly involved in conflict. Not to forget about ISIS, FSA and Kurds................ each have its own agenda, and its own goals............... and poor public of respective countries are paying the ultimate price..........

Saddam Hussain........... no matter how much evil he was, was a necessary power balance in region............. He was anti Shia as well as anti Arab in his approach, while he him self was proud of being Arab............ He fought with Iran, fought with Arabs in Kuwait as well as messed with Israel both in 73, 80s and in 91 .............. He acted like a wall between two Shia dominated states, Iran and Syria................ but he was also close to Soviet Russia ............ despite of his ultra nationalists ideologies, he was a necessary evil. His deadth created power vacuum which no battling parties are trying to fill

Real trouble started in 2003, when West accused Saddam for making biological WMD and attacked Iraq. Those weapons were never found, but Saddam rule came to end and he ended up in prison............. his military, which was 5th largest military at that time was purely Sunni ............. they were hostile towards Shia minorities. So when United States ended up the rule of Saddam, they needed some one as ruler who can act like a puppet and loyal enough to take risks for them. ....................they kicked out entire Sunni Iraqi military from job and filled it with Shia soldiers and put Shia government in charge .................... this created a huge friction between Suuni dominated population and Shia government and military............... the Idea of Death squads was born who begun to hunt down former officers and their families from Saddam army and begun to hang their bodies at public places................this resulted in strengthening of Militia groups who picked arms and begun to fought against Government and occupying forces.

Second big tragedy happened in Syria................... Just like Saddam was ruling Iraq from decades, another dictator family was ruling Syria from decades..............Hafiz ul Asad and now his son Bishar ul Asad............... another interesting fact is that Syria major population is Sunni which is Ruled by Shia government, which do not represent their will................. hence creating trouble.............West tried to dethrone Asad (for many reasons we all know) after killing Qazzafi in Libya............. taking advantage of angry Sunni population, CIA created Sunni Militant groups, armed them, funded them and guided them............. this insurgency in Syria become out of control and overlapped with insurgency in Iraq................ Militants on both side were of same sect, Sunni............. fighting against same sect of Government, Shia.............. so this synchronization in their nature and goals created new alliance. Many hostile agencies jumped in to control this power and ended up in creation of ISIS which was hostile towards both governments as well as ''moderate freedom fighters'' which were supported by West and Arabs.

Militants, supported by West and Arabs were turning the table in Middle East but at the mean time both Iran and Russia decided to interfere directly instead of back supporting. Iran Quds brigade was deployed in Iraq and they begun to fight shoulder to shoulder with Iraqi army to take down Militant groups, in Syria, Russians deployed their bombers, air defence and special forces. This changed the whole game and turned the table in favor of Iran, Russia and Shia governments................

So much happened, so much have to happen yet................. we need to know why Middle east is so much in mess now? Because Saddam is gone, the wall between both Shia states is broken and replaced by a Shia bridge. Arabs feel threat of possibility of United Shia States in Middle East............. consisting of Iran, Iraq, Syria and Lebonan............. this will become a mass threat to their ideologies, governments and even existence........... Iran have shown the proof how aggressive it can become.......... by Rising insurgency in Yemen, Iran showed how far it can go to win its interests in Middle East...........They want to save Iraqi Shia government.............. They want Asad to keep ruling. They want Lebonan on their side........... what we have as a result?........... A Giant Shia state which in also inclined towards Russia (hence threat to NATO and Israel interests) ..............This is what Arabs and West want to avoid at every cost............. although Europeans often criticize Turkey role in Syria, but fact is they are also firing gun from Turkish shoulder. They are also worried about losing Middle east to their adversaries..........

What Iran fears? the exact opposite.................Losing Syria to Sunnis and return of Saddam like person in power in Iraq......... Iran will become isolated once again and threatened to its existence.............. Iran also knows how far KSA and Turkey can go ........... both nations are planning a ground assault in Syria, or atleast showing muscles to invade........... if they invaded and won,.... they will establish a Sunni leadership in Syria........... which will command Free Syrian Army (FSA) as regular army of Syria............. and Iraq will be next target. I believe government in Iraq is less tougher than Asad government. so once Syria collapse, Iraq will collapse in next few weeks............ A night mare for Iran indeed.

When I look at the depth of this matter and see how crazy both parties are to win this war, I realize that its too late for Pakistan or China or United Nations to interfere and resolve this issue diplomatically................its simply out of their hands now ............... One side will collapse, and losing side will face the same non conventional war with in its country like Pakistan is facing from past decade................

These cartoons say a lot

And yeah I forget about ISIS................. Kurds............... and Israelis................

Israel share many common interests as Arabs or Turks.............. but they also don't want them to overpower..........Israel is enemy of both, so they want this war keep going, but away from their borders...........they understand Muslim ethics very well, Mossad knows that a too weak Shia arm or too weak Sunni arm will result in complete dominance of one arm............ and once one arm will dominate, it will try to deliver sucker punch to Israel in very next conflict.

ISIS, ............. I believe we overestimate them.............. they appear to be strong thanks to their strong ideology which was the reason they sucked so much power from Al Qaeda, Taliban and others........... but same ideology is also their weak point............once they lose their control in Syria and Iraq, they are as good as dead............ they need a ''back up'' core in either Europe or in South Asia inorder to secure their existence............ but I believe that ultimately they will be sandwiched between both parties and end up in same distorted situation in which Al Qaeda is now..............

And one last party which we often ignore are Kurds............. they are gaining power............... those who know a bit about them knows that they want their free land, Kurdistan................ which contain territories of Turkey, Syria, Iraq and Iran ............ this make them enemy of all ............... but they are not as hostile as ISIS is .................. in the current chaos, they see a golden opportunity to claim a size able land and declare their freedom................... just like a Fox who keep waiting for piece of meat, when both Lion and Bear get tied of fighting, fox slip in and run away with piece of meat.........as far as I know, they are not advancing in hurry, they occupy size able piece of land in North Syria-Iraq, they are creating troubles in East Turkey, so taking advantage of lack of focus on them they are fortifying and waiting for perfect opportunity to strike...................

Ultimately I believe, Arabs will end up in causing insurgency in their own homelands, Iran will bite more than it can afford, creating a permanent troubles in Iraq-Syria.............. while real victorious party will be Kurds........

 

[Tipu7]

So what will Pakistan do................?

Our case is bit complex in this situation..............

If we do nothing, then it means we are siding with Iran and ignoring the help request from Arabs.
If we do something for sake of Arabs then it compromise our own security, as we are in the middle of operation Zarb e Azb, face shortage of FC along Durand line, cleaning up Baluchistan for Gwadar and have hostile East border.........thus despite of 6th Largest Military, we are short of men......... once situations in West come under control, then situation might change.

Pakistan is unlucky in one respect. Common people don't understand complex geopolitics and international chess games. They can easily be controlled by simple sectarian ideologies............... Those Pakistanis who live in Pakistan but are more loyal towards Iran or Saudia are real problem. ................ they are emotional fools who can easily become hostile if any adversary agency tried to take advantage of their emotions.

One thing is very clear, we did a splendid job of not jumping into Middle East, but instead prefered to act like a middle man and tried to settle their disputes. We even used the China card........... sadly its too late, so its didn't work.........but it did sent a good gesture that Pakistan is not in favor of any conflict. It want peaceful resolution. and want people of Iraq and Syria to decide their fate............... not someone else sitting across the border..............

Lets suppose, if conditions worsen to sch level that we have no choice but to deploy our troops middle east then what will be our stance? Well we must not go offensive, but instead take responsibility of border protection and guarding key points in KSA or if necessary even in Turkey................At that moment, though it will be once again a great favor by Pakistan for letting Iran do what ever it want but they will take it as a sign that we have joined alliance against Iran in Middle east............. As they are not capable enough to launch Mechanized attack on Pakistan soil but they will use dirty tricks to sabotage key projects in Pakistan................ Gwadar on Top! How? Well known fact that Chabahar is in competition with Gwadar for securing trade route from central Asian states........ they can increase Indian presence and work load in their ports inorder to piss us off................. they can catalyze insurgency in Baluchistan with India on its back.......... crating issues for CPEC road lines............... and most importantly, the head of CPEC project lies in sensitive zone of Gilgit Baltistan..............in that region, Shia are in majority population.........and many Shia Madrasas are working there.............. these Madrasas receive funding from Iran..........(Iran is second largest funder of Madrasas in Pakistan after KSA) ................ the ''shia card'' in that region can create sectarian violence............... which can become havoc for entire CPEC project..............

What type of backlash we expect if we stay out of this conflict............? Well we will never side with Iran, but truth is.....staying away from this war is like Supporting Iran.......... Arabs know that, Iran knows that........... presence of a specialized veteran army will shift the entire balance towards Arabs.............. and this is why Arabs want Pakistanis and Egyptians so badly.............in return they will offer you as much leverage, you cannot imagine............. but if we deny every deal by using war on terror inside Pakistan as justification, then we must not expect Arabs to help us out Militarily, economically or strategically in case of major conflict with India............... for countering India, we need Arabs.......... if we didn't help them out at the time they need us more, they will not help us out when we need their help most.........

Iran offer us no clear cut advantages which Arabs can offer. In case of staying out of conflict we can make few demands from Iran, like giving up Indian based projects in their country, cutting off diplomatic relations with India, join CPEC project, resolve Baluchistan militancy issues together, cool down sectarian violence in region permanently etc etc............ we can do that for Iran.............. can they do that for us.............? As long as India is sitting over their heads, I believe they will not............

So what's the solution? They called for cease fire two days ago............. this cease fire will not last a week............ war will broke out soon once again. And each party will accuse other party for breaking the cease fire........... Both parties are sitting on equal chairs at equal levels............. so no party will compromise its demand.............. for making Talks fruit full............... it is crucial for one party to sit many steps higher than other,.......... it will help you to enforce your demands on other party, and your opponent, sitting on low levels will have to compromise their few demands inorder to avoid full loss..............how one party sit at high chair than other party on negotiation table? This is decided is battle field........ furious assaults with jaw breaking results in your favor badly hit morals of your opponent........... so once ''real negotiations'' take place............ there will be a significant hype in battle and both parties will try to gain as upper hand as possible............

But in the end, it will be Give one and take one solution............ Take Syria, Give Iraq.............. or Give Iraq and Take Syria............ at this moment Kurds will hit negotiation table and sabotage this deal too............. and you have no choice to give them their free land......... and split up remaining both countries according to agreement ........... Sadly, no one is giving importance to what The local people want, who are getting killed from both sides.........almost 30% of Syrian and 5% of Iraqi population is living as refugee in other countries.............. bring them back......... do elections to know what they demands........... I believe this is what Iran and Russians don't want, as they know in a Sunni Majority State (Both Iraq-Syria) the government will be of Sunnis............ so they will play as dirty party again............... by rejecting the elections results, throwing blames of rigging, making excuses like major portion of local population is still out side. So their opinions are unknown etc etc.............. and in the end, there will be once again war............... if not of arms, then of infrastructure.............who will step forward first and Build both nations? Who will arm their militaries? Fund their governments? Provide sources? pay war funds to compensate civil infra structure loss...........? Not to forget ''Kurdistan'' will be a new player in game..........

When I think about it, my mind just blow out........... situation is so complex that it really need a miracle to solve these issues............other wise, war will continue........ and people will keep dying..............refuges will keep pouring, turning into night mare for Europe and neighboring countries and providing new grounds for ISIS to expand their influence......................its shameful how the World is suffering for lack of mutual understandings..............

Here I found a interesting map............. I saw it for first time back in 2009 ................ its very alarmingly true from some angles........... considering the fact that we Pakistanis also avoided narrowly many ''breakage points'' during Zardari era

 

[HAIDER]

When nations take favor , because of their " intentional weakness and corruption " , then those who give favor ,later ask for pay back in future. And where Pak stand right now. When leaders planted without check and balance.