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Arab Iran Stand-off
1. Introduction Iran and Saudi Arabia are neither natural allies nor natural enemies, but natural rivals who have long competed as major oil producers and self-proclaimed defenders of Shia and Sunni Islam, respectively.They crafted their ideologies in their own country and are promoting to neighbouring countries as well just to increase their influence. What they have is not only a clash of narratives, they have basically a huge divide, a war by proxy, a cold war taking place between Saudi Arabia and Iran.It's a war about geopolitics. It's about power. It's about influence. Relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran -- two Middle Eastern powerhouses -- quickly deteriorated following Riyadh's execution of Shiite cleric Nimr al-Nimr. Hours after the death sentence was carried out, protesters in Shiite-majority Iran attacked the Saudi Embassy in Tehran. The Saudis cut diplomatic relations with Iran over the attack on its embassy.Saudi Arabia suspended all flights to and from Iran. It also accused Iranian authorities of failing in their duties to protect the Saudi embassy.Jaberi Ansari, a spokesman for Iran's foreign ministry, said his country is committed to protecting diplomatic missions and reiterated that no Saudi diplomats were harmed -- or even present -- during the attack.
He accused Saudi Arabia of "looking for some excuses to pursue its own unwise policies to further tension in the region."
Meanwhile, some nations picked sides while others called for calm.
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Russia and China, two of the biggest geopolitical players in the hemisphere, released statements calling for restraint between Iran and Saudi Arabia."Moscow is concerned about escalation of the situation in the Middle East with participation of the key regional players," the Russian foreign ministry said. Russia called on the Saudis and Iranians to "show restraint and to avoid any steps that might escalate the situation and raise tensions including inter religious ones."
China's foreign ministry said it is paying close attention to the events and hopes "all parties can remain calm and restrained, use dialogue and negotiations to properly resolve differences, and work together to safeguard the region's peace and stability."
According to the Pakistan foreign office, the purpose of the visit was to ease tensions between the two Organization of Islamic Cooperation countries, with an emphasis on resuming dialogue.
The foreign office issued a statement on Sunday stating that Pakistan was deeply concerned at the standoff between the two countries. “The prime minister has called for a resolution of differences through peaceful means, in the larger interest of Muslim unity particularly during these challenging times,” the statement said.
Saudi Arabia and Iran back opposite sides in the wars in Syria and Yemen
2. US Neutral Posture
- The Obama administration strove to appear neutral amid open confrontation between its ally Saudi Arabia and its frequent nemesis Iran, a strategy that risked anger from Riyadh as the U.S. tries to navigate the growing crisis in the region.The White House contacted Iranian and Saudi officials in an effort to de-escalate tensions.
- Although the U.S. is a longtime ally of Saudi Arabia, the Obama administration wants to preserve the international nuclear deal struck with Iran this year, which the White House sees as a top foreign policy achievement. But its posture of neutrality quickly could become untenable, if Saudi Arabia and Iran escalate their standoff beyond the recent fracture of diplomatic and economic ties.
- "We think the best solutions are ones that come from the region," State Department spokesman John Kirby said " Real long-term solutions won't be legislated from Washington D.C."
- The Obama administration voiced condemnation for actions that have taken place on both sides: mass executions such as those in Saudi Arabia and attacks on Saudi diplomatic facilities in Iran.
- U.S. hopes Saudi Arabia, Iran and other powers that have severed ties will resume dialogue, so all can focus on confronting Islamic State as well as the Syria process
3. China
Amid the tensions, China sent Vice Foreign Minister Zhang Ming to Saudi Arabia and Iran for an exchange of views on the regional situation.China enjoys solid ties with both Iran and Saudi Arabia, a difficult feat given the two states’ antipathy toward each other. Both, for example, signed on to join the Chinese-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank as founding members.
Saudi Arabia and Iran both see increased ties with China as a useful counterweight to relations with the United States, though for very different reasons – Riyadh wants to avoid over-reliance on its major ally, while Tehran needs to find diplomatic support elsewhere given the enmity between it and Washington.
Saudi Arabia has traditionally been China’s top source for oil imports, although it was briefly replaced by Russia for part of 2015. While energy underpins the China-Saudi relationship, Beijing wants to expand cooperation to other fields as well, including having Saudi Arabia join China’s Silk Road Economic Belt and Maritime Silk Road.Meanwhile, China has always been friendly to Iran, though Beijing acquiesced in UN sanctions designed to cripple Iran’s nuclear program.
With the successful negotiations of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action to end Iran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons and roll back sanctions, China foresees as bright future for the relationship. China has also bumped up the amount of oil it imports from Iran, foreseeing the end of sanctions. Before 2012, Iran was China’s third-largest source of crude; when sanctions took effect, it dropped to sixth place.
Amid the tensions, China sent Vice Foreign Minister Zhang Ming to Saudi Arabia and Iran for an exchange of views on the regional situation.China enjoys solid ties with both Iran and Saudi Arabia, a difficult feat given the two states’ antipathy toward each other. Both, for example, signed on to join the Chinese-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank as founding members.
Saudi Arabia and Iran both see increased ties with China as a useful counterweight to relations with the United States, though for very different reasons – Riyadh wants to avoid over-reliance on its major ally, while Tehran needs to find diplomatic support elsewhere given the enmity between it and Washington.
Saudi Arabia has traditionally been China’s top source for oil imports, although it was briefly replaced by Russia for part of 2015. While energy underpins the China-Saudi relationship, Beijing wants to expand cooperation to other fields as well, including having Saudi Arabia join China’s Silk Road Economic Belt and Maritime Silk Road.Meanwhile, China has always been friendly to Iran, though Beijing acquiesced in UN sanctions designed to cripple Iran’s nuclear program.
With the successful negotiations of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action to end Iran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons and roll back sanctions, China foresees as bright future for the relationship. China has also bumped up the amount of oil it imports from Iran, foreseeing the end of sanctions. Before 2012, Iran was China’s third-largest source of crude; when sanctions took effect, it dropped to sixth place.
- By coincidence, Beijing is currently hosting President Khaled Khoja (also known as Alptekin Hocaoglu) of the National Coalition for Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces, fulfilling a promise to host both the Syrian government and opposition for talks as part of China’s commitment to moving forward the peace process. Syrian Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Walid al-Moallem was in Beijing late December.Khoja and Moallem both met with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi. The outreach to Khoja connects back to Zhang’s trip to the Middle East, where he will doubtless try to convince Saudi Arabia and Iran to continue with the current blueprint for Syrian peace talks.
4. Global Impact
- Saudi officials fear the release of the $100 billion in frozen oil revenues will allow Iran even more aggressively to support its proxies in the region, including the Assad regime in Syria and the Houthi militia in Yemen.
- Implementation of the nuclear agreement will raise even greater fears among the Sunni Arab states that the U.S. is seeking to align with Iran.
- Saudi-Iran relationship will derail fragile attempts to resolve the Syrian civil war. Iran and Saudi Arabia have often refused to even sit down together for talks on Syria; it seems unlikely they will be willing to do so again, at least in the short term.
- Saudi-Iran rift is the result of two different narratives promoted by these two states.
- Common threat to existence of both countries from any stronger enemy can result into de-escalation, which is unlikely in near future
5. Conclusion Both Iran and Saudi Arabia are important and influential countries in the Middle East. Pakistan would like to develop friendly and cooperative relations with the two. What that means in practice is that Pakistan cannot be seen to take sides in the current dispute, and indeed the Foreign Ministry has been careful not to address the cause of the tensions (lest it be seen to lay blame on either party), instead calling for both sides to show restraint.
News Sources
Pakistan launches efforts to end Riyadh-Tehran standoff | Arab News
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