Analysis on Dual Attacks on FC Camps.

[Khanate]

I'll add a few observations.

1) There is a new playbook emerging out of GHQ with the recent spat of assassinations in Iran and Afghanistan. The success of this playbook remains to be seen but it is checks all the right boxes.

2) The source of instability in Balochistan is instigated from abroad and it must be viewed in a broader geopolitical context. Ergo, to deal with the negative externalities, war must be taken to the gates of the enemy. Mumbai and Delhi must feel the same heat or there is no incentive for change.

3) Some have commented tactics, intelligence and knowledge base could use improvement, I don't disagree but it must go further: FC and Rangers should be brought under GHQ.

4) Criticism of COAS is routine on this forum as if Bajwa has a magic wand that can fix our judicial failure to prosecute terrorists

 

[Irfan Baloch]

the follow up video from Gen Shoaib.

please comment after watching video.
keep discussion meaningful give substance to rhetoric with better logic and deliberation.

the General has explained his suspicions about possible Iranian and / or Afghan Hand in the terror attacks with good points. obviously his thought process and analysis is way above the layman sectarian bashing.

for sake of progressing the discussion lets assume that BLA, Daesh and TTP Troika has tacit approval or support of Iranian regime and the disorganized Afghan taliban regime that released all TTP prisoners has also indirectly supported these groups in some fashion.

the question is how to counter this challenge diplomatically though military and covert operations because complaining about it has so far not stopped these attacks that have originated either from Iran or Afghanistan. India continues to ace Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan and apart from a handful examples of cross border operations in Iran or Afghanistan the state of Pakistan is mostly on the receiving end.

 

[Pak Nationalist]

Another analysis by Moeed Pirzada

Ignore the map for the sake of subject matter.
at least for now.

He says the security establishment is going to tighten the screws on the miscreants in coming times in Balochistan (I disagree, there are capacity and doctrinal gaps which have to be addressed first). Highlights the fact that Baloch insurgent groups are growing in capacity and their attacks are getting sophisticated (a worrying fact). I talk about some of the gaps and possible solutions here:

Point mobilization of decisive force (terrain, vastness, manpower constraints)

If you are observing the developments in Balochistan that is around 42% of Pakistan's total landmass, you would be able to recognize a pattern. That pattern entails insurgents being able to strike at will, at a tactically advantageous point, and at times with an overwhelming projection of force...

defence.pk

 

[Jango]

==============
Commentary by Gen Shoaib on recent surge in BLA attacks leading to the 2 coordinated attacks,.
India is operating from Afghanistan and Iran with or without support of the 2 governments.

the tactical gear including weapons and equipment used was all NATO grade high end.
the intensity of attacks is increasing. the number of attackers and nature of the attacks by BLA/ BLM are getting serious and complex. the real target is Pak-China relationship.

Interesting to see here he mentions that around 5 were arrested as well. No other source has mentioned that.

 

[HAIDER]

I have seen the pictures of the dead terrorists with the NATO weapons but cant be shared as they are extremely graphic.

I think Ahsan Ullah Ahsan last interview in 2017 is good enough who support BLA. Other small sprinter groups have unkown supporters.

 

[Sayfullah]

the follow up video from Gen Shoaib.

please comment after watching video.
keep discussion meaningful give substance to rhetoric with better logic and deliberation.

the General has explained his suspicions about possible Iranian and / or Afghan Hand in the terror attacks with good points. obviously his thought process and analysis is way above the layman sectarian bashing.

for sake of progressing the discussion lets assume that BLA, Daesh and TTP Troika has tacit approval or support of Iranian regime and the disorganized Afghan taliban regime that released all TTP prisoners has also indirectly supported these groups in some fashion.

the question is how to counter this challenge diplomatically though military and covert operations because complaining about it has so far not stopped these attacks that have originated either from Iran or Afghanistan. India continues to ace Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan and apart from a handful examples of cross border operations in Iran or Afghanistan the state of Pakistan is mostly on the receiving end.

My opinion on the solution:
Since we tried talks many times with Iran but it failed, keeping in mind we have many enemies atm, we should give a limited measured response to Iranians. By this I mean two or three attacks here and there by Baloch insurgents on Iranian side supported by us or cross border attack by insurgents from our side. Right after these attacks our political leadership should contact Iranian leadership and offer mutually beneficial support against insurgents and try to pressure Iranians into stopping supporting or turning a blind eye to anti Pakistan groups operating from Iran. These attacks will show Iran if proxy war is what they want we can give them one, but it will also give one final change of peace and mural cooperation to happen. Pakistanis should help Iranians understand that their enemy is Israel, usa and India since, India is like Israel’s child. Since these are Iranians enemies, Iranians should naturally be closer to Chinese/Russian block, which we are closer to as well. There’s lots of opportunities for Iran to prosper with Pakistan in the region.
However, if all final attempts fail to get Iranians to stoop supporting or turning blind eye on terrorists, then let all the anti Iran baloch and every type of insurgents free let them reck havoc on Iran because it’s better to fight your enemy on their land then on your land.

As for Taliban, we should help them with intel sharing and help them get complete control over their country first. We should help them become a functional state first and we should do our best to prevent a famine in Afghanistan. If a famine in Afghanistan takes place it’ll be like a gold mine for Indians, they can recruit many terrorists for money and use them against us. Taliban should be helped to get complete control over their country first then we must demand them to stop terrorists from operating in Afghanistan because they will have no excuses then.
While we help Taliban become a proper functional state, we should ensure at least we have enough leverage in Afghanistan that if Taliban turn their guns against us we can engage them in their territory in a long proxy war.
We can offer Taliban a chance to prosper and Afghanistan to prosper. They can benefit from our ports and we can benefit from getting access to Central Asia. But our peace initiatives shouldn’t be taken as weaknesses we should follow American carrot and stick policy our peace efforts is the carrot and the proxies we have ready are the stick.

As for India, as long as india was engaged in its territory we didn’t have terrorism at such level in Pakistan. Even Amjad Shuaib in his other videos said Indians will never stop terrorism in Pakistan unless we don’t engage them in their territory. He even brought up the point in his videos that india spreads propaganda we have militant camps on our border yet we always try proving to them we don’t AND we suffer the consequences of if we did even tho we don’t. So why not we actually make these camps and teach Indians a lesson.
Pakistan should take advantage of Myanmar’s instability and create a proxy of around a couple hundred or thousands there which will do cross border attacks in Indian Nagaland, Mizoram, Tripura and Manipur. Myanmar is like Afghanistan right now, huge amounts of weapons there, civil war and many people willing to do anything for money.
Also creating insurgencies in Indias East instead of Kashmir will also benefit us because it will stretch Indian army thin. They’ll have to deploy huge amount of troops all the way on the other side of India. This will was the burden on our Kashmiri brothers as well. Indians will look like fools blaming us for insurgencies there and can’t even threaten us with war when their army is spread so thin. It will also give us, when we want, a perfect opportunity to attack Kashmir if need be since a lot of their army will be deployed to crack down on the insurgency.

Pakistan is 8x smaller then india. We can’t win this war only playing by the roles. India will always be conventionally stronger, and we don’t want nuclear war. Only way to stop terrorist rss from spreading terrorism in Pakistan is to engage them deep inside India.

That’s my 2 cents on what we should do

 

[The Eagle]

Taliban sold India NATO weapons to be used against their own benefactors?

You have every reason.to somehow reverse that situation.of India getting out of Afghanistan due to Taliban and you have to drag them merely to taunt but still, it wouldn't change the fact that these weapons are mostly sold and supplied by ANA. They even used to sell it Taliban. Not painting Taliban as angels but ANA/RAW/NDS/Ghani were the sole father's of TTP/BLA/BRAS/BLF and even ISIS-K in Afghanistan merely to attack Pakistan and that's it. It's not a new thing to repeat all that.

his map is distorted but other than that
good analysis

I have corrected and edited your many posts for having abusive language/wording. This is to inform.to not to such language on the Forum. As a courtesy, didn't issue you a ban for the time being so you can review and do the right thing.

Regards,

 

[blain2]

I was looking at the weapons and they looked equal to any other elite force
I am pretty sure this weaponary is American weaponary left after.thr fall of Kabul
Indians probably baught them this weaponary from the black market

Even if the equipment was bought on open market, directly it has nothing to do with Americans. To equip 20 people with M-4/M-16 variants and NVG etc. is not a big feat specially for entities like BLA etc. which deal in the black market. The real issue is where the funding comes from. Two possibilities, one is Baloch nationalistic elements raising funds or external entities or both. If we have no way to break that funding, then constantly harping on Indian/Afghan connection is a road to nowhere. Either we have to break the nexus or respond in kind. The latter isn't a great option on account of blowback. So let's do the hard work of securing by offering peace dividends to the Baloch. I.e. wield the stick but offer a bigger carrot. There isn't any other option.

Also on this NATO/American equipment angle. I think people go off on silly tangents. If we were to support proxies, would we send them off with weapons made in the PoF? So even if Americans/NATO were behind these attacks, as per the insinuations being made by certain quarters in Pakistan, are the Americans such novices that they would equip the terrorists with hardware out of their own armories or suppliers? This is a game of plausible deniability. You help but not so that fingers point back at you.

Indians, Iranians, Emeratis, Afghans and also Americans are all possibly involved in keeping the fire raging given Gwader and CPEC brings its own set of challenges for each of them.
Our two options are that we either give up on account of casualties or keep on ploughing through this but adjusting our own security along the way. There will be more losses, there be more tragedies along the way but just like KKH was constructed, just like FATA was pacified, Balochistan too has to be fully secured to ensure the success of CPEC.

Pakistan will lose at first, then learn and eventually overcome insha'Allah. There is no other choice.

 

[Maula Jatt]

Even if the equipment was bought on open market, directly it has nothing to do with Americans. To equip 20 people with M-4/M-16 variants and NVG etc. is not a big feat specially for entities like BLA etc. which deal in the black market. The real issue is where the funding comes from. Two possibilities, one is Baloch nationalistic elements raising funds or external entities or both. If we have no way to break that funding, then constantly harping on Indian/Afghan connection. Either break the nexus or respond in kind. The latter isn't a great option either on account of blowback. So let's do the hard work of securing by offering peace dividends to the Baloch. I.e. wield the stick but offer a bigger carrot. There isn't any other option.

Also on this NATO/American equipment angle. I think people go off on silly tangents. Would we send people into Kashmir or anywhere else with weapons made in the PoF? So even if Americans/NATO were behind these attacks, as these insinuations are being made, are they such novices that they would equip the terrorists with hardware out of their own armories or suppliers? This is a game of plausible deniability. You help but not so that fingers point back at you.

I never said it's NATO or Americans supporting them

I said it's NATO weaponary left after the fall of kabul

Just like weaponary left in the 80s after Soviet withdrawal

How/who bought them this weaponary from black market?
This is the issue, personally feel it's multi faceted...

 

[Irfan Baloch]

My opinion on the solution:
Since we tried talks many times with Iran but it failed, keeping in mind we have many enemies atm, we should give a limited measured response to Iranians. By this I mean two or three attacks here and there by Baloch insurgents on Iranian side supported by us or cross border attack by insurgents from our side. Right after these attacks our political leadership should contact Iranian leadership and offer mutually beneficial support against insurgents and try to pressure Iranians into stopping supporting or turning a blind eye to anti Pakistan groups operating from Iran. These attacks will show Iran if proxy war is what they want we can give them one, but it will also give one final change of peace and mural cooperation to happen. Pakistanis should help Iranians understand that their enemy is Israel, usa and India since, India is like Israel’s child. Since these are Iranians enemies, Iranians should naturally be closer to Chinese/Russian block, which we are closer to as well. There’s lots of opportunities for Iran to prosper with Pakistan in the region.
However, if all final attempts fail to get Iranians to stoop supporting or turning blind eye on terrorists, then let all the anti Iran baloch and every type of insurgents free let them reck havoc on Iran because it’s better to fight your enemy on their land then on your land.

As for Taliban, we should help them with intel sharing and help them get complete control over their country first. We should help them become a functional state first and we should do our best to prevent a famine in Afghanistan. If a famine in Afghanistan takes place it’ll be like a gold mine for Indians, they can recruit many terrorists for money and use them against us. Taliban should be helped to get complete control over their country first then we must demand them to stop terrorists from operating in Afghanistan because they will have no excuses then.
While we help Taliban become a proper functional state, we should ensure at least we have enough leverage in Afghanistan that if Taliban turn their guns against us we can engage them in their territory in a long proxy war.
We can offer Taliban a chance to prosper and Afghanistan to prosper. They can benefit from our ports and we can benefit from getting access to Central Asia. But our peace initiatives shouldn’t be taken as weaknesses we should follow American carrot and stick policy our peace efforts is the carrot and the proxies we have ready are the stick.

As for India, as long as india was engaged in its territory we didn’t have terrorism at such level in Pakistan. Even Amjad Shuaib in his other videos said Indians will never stop terrorism in Pakistan unless we don’t engage them in their territory. He even brought up the point in his videos that india spreads propaganda we have militant camps on our border yet we always try proving to them we don’t AND we suffer the consequences of if we did even tho we don’t. So why not we actually make these camps and teach Indians a lesson.
Pakistan should take advantage of Myanmar’s instability and create a proxy of around a couple hundred or thousands there which will do cross border attacks in Indian Nagaland, Mizoram, Tripura and Manipur. Myanmar is like Afghanistan right now, huge amounts of weapons there, civil war and many people willing to do anything for money.
Also creating insurgencies in Indias East instead of Kashmir will also benefit us because it will stretch Indian army thin. They’ll have to deploy huge amount of troops all the way on the other side of India. This will was the burden on our Kashmiri brothers as well. Indians will look like fools blaming us for insurgencies there and can’t even threaten us with war when their army is spread so thin. It will also give us, when we want, a perfect opportunity to attack Kashmir if need be since a lot of their army will be deployed to crack down on the insurgency.

Pakistan is 8x smaller then india. We can’t win this war only playing by the roles. India will always be conventionally stronger, and we don’t want nuclear war. Only way to stop terrorist rss from spreading terrorism in Pakistan is to engage them deep inside India.

That’s my 2 cents on what we should do

thanks for detailed post
I will respond on points where I disagree due to some risks but I agree with eith 70% approach.
I will explain why helping Sestani Baloch against Iran is bad idea for us due to Jandullah terrorism but approach definately has to be more nonverbal and dynamic with Iran and thats for mutual benefit.

 

[Tomcats]

I have seen the pictures of the dead terrorists with the NATO weapons but cant be shared as they are extremely graphic.

He is right it's all NATO arms present in Afghanistan that's left behind, it's why Pakistan was hurriedly trying to buy up any arms it could immediately after the fall of Kabul and prevent proliferation but alas.

The excuse that out of 5 three were preempted and somehow the bigger one involving an attack on HQ

I'm not even sure if this '5 attacks' thing is even true as i have not seen any official statements on it, only the Turbat attack i guess you could say was connected but that happened afterwards and officially it hasn't been stated whether it was connected.
However, let's assume they tried 5 attacks, it speaks volumes about an exponential leap in capability, from only being able to perform a major attack once they do 5? So much for that 'desperation' BS some people are spreading.

 

[I.R.A]

However, let's assume they tried 5 attacks, it speaks volumes about an exponential leap in capability, from only being able to perform a major attack once they do 5? So much for that 'desperation' BS some people are spreading.

From blowing gas pipelines, railway tracks to attacking HQs and military installations. Well we have been sleeping since AT took over Afghanistan. If we had used all that confusion to our benefit we could have managed to break the backbones of all these proxies. But we were busy running flights and thought it would be a good idea to have cease fire and talks with TTP, while they were all busy sharing tactics and resources. Their handlers took advantage.

 

[Arsalan890]

I am telling you all from a long time that it's time. I was so frustrated with this attack that I wanted to comment on the same day but due to my ban situation, i have to select alternatives. Please do something about this situation. One thing that Pakistani youth and media can do is to highlight Iranian terrorist activities in the mainstream media. We must all combine and put pressure so that army can take action.

Everyone knows how weapons are distributed through Chabahar. Baloch separatists are getting weapons from Chabahar. India is financing it and Iran is fully involved. I am 100% sure that their government also know this. This is like waging war without declaring it. Enough is enough. Time to peace talks are gone. We missed our chance to solve this issue through peaceful means.

Iran see Pakistani Baluchistan as a suitable place to grow their terror network. they also have eye on Baluchistan and India has persuaded them long time ago that Iran will get it's share in Pakistani Baluchistan. Kulbhushan became Roshan Mubarak and Iranian intelligence thinks that we are fools. We aren't fools. We are behaving like weak. We are controlled from top which is Parliament. I urge Pak army and Pak Airforce to not listen to Pakistani politicians.

they want piece of our our geography. Basically it's the biggest part of Pakistan. They want it all. We should get their piece of geography. i say blitzkrieg inside Iran and reach Chabahar and control strait of Hormuz. We should also think big. Let's destroy Iran together. This terrorist country has made an entire brigade inside Pakistan. this same country has providing Weapons to Baloch. It's time to take this war to enemy home.

These type of attacks will continue and intensity will further increase with many cities specially Karachi, will be targeted. Iran and india using Chabahar as a hub to distribute weapons. India wanted to create insurgency from a long time but now she can easily arm baloch, thanks to iranian involvement. I want media and our youth to write Articles against Iran. Use your blog or website etc and do it in mass numbers. This is a war. I urge Pakistani institutions to take action against iran and think big. Think about annexing whole coastal regions of Iran. If you want to destroy enemy, humiliate them first. Think big. Act wisely and decisively.

I don't know the terrain but I believe some parts are suitable for tanks. I have made a master plan. we can easily destroy this Persian empire which is made of cowards.

Masterplan hosted at ImgBB

Image Masterplan in Arsalan1234's images album

ibb.co

 

[PaklovesTurkiye]

the follow up video from Gen Shoaib.

please comment after watching video.
keep discussion meaningful give substance to rhetoric with better logic and deliberation.

the General has explained his suspicions about possible Iranian and / or Afghan Hand in the terror attacks with good points. obviously his thought process and analysis is way above the layman sectarian bashing.

for sake of progressing the discussion lets assume that BLA, Daesh and TTP Troika has tacit approval or support of Iranian regime and the disorganized Afghan taliban regime that released all TTP prisoners has also indirectly supported these groups in some fashion.

the question is how to counter this challenge diplomatically though military and covert operations because complaining about it has so far not stopped these attacks that have originated either from Iran or Afghanistan. India continues to ace Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan and apart from a handful examples of cross border operations in Iran or Afghanistan the state of Pakistan is mostly on the receiving end.

Hi..

Though I haven't watched the video.

But Iran appears to me very sinister compared to Arabs when it comes to Pakistan.

Iranians do have noticeable influence in Southern Pakistan Belt (From Baluchistan to all way to upto Karachi/Sindh).

Wasn't Gang Leader of PPP caught for spying on Pakistan Army Installations?

And then below the few years old report....

A Pakistani man has been accused of spying for Iran on SPD politician Reinhold Robbe. Prosecutors have said the suspect was exploring targets for possible attacks against politicians in Germany with ties to Israel.

https://www.dw.com/en/report-pakistani-accused-of-spying-on-german-politician-for-iran/a-37044407???

Unlike Arabs, Iranians have tried to create segments inside Pakistan to be used against Pakistan and institutions when right time arrives.

Now, how to counter them and TTP/Taliban, especially when it comes to solving insurgency in KP/Baluchistan's far-flunged border areas....

It really requires a short/long term policy - will require patience from us as well. Our People who have access to classified info in Isb/Pindi may finalize something better....

I think it can be curtailed with

1. Strong Governance (Tribal/Feudals need to be purged or given education). Health/Basic necessities to local populace of ours should be given on priority basis.
2. Reasonable Media Coverage.
3. Strong Border Protocols complimented by Tech.
4. Strong Intelligence network right upto Iranian/Afghan border towns (Monitoring social media to all the way down to tracking happenings in local street)
5. Taking out all leaders/masterminds who are given shelter by Iranian/Afghan intelligence
right in latter's territories.

Afghanistan/Iran - both are considered to be bad boys in int'l arena...Pakistan can afford to piss them off to certain extent. Both countries have taken Pakistan for a ride...This needs to change asap.

These options should work given genuine grievances are sorted out....Else Outsiders are always there to exploit and our people willingly/unwillingly will get wasted....

I think after US withdrawl...Someone is sending a signal to us...

It was us who were getting very happy on Taliban take over of Afghanistan...Looks like Someone is hell bent to prove us wrong, hence surge in attacks with terrorists operating under layers of new dynamics/alliances/warfare...As if Powers are telling us that The New Game has begun after US Withdrawl, just not in Pakistan's favor though.

As I am writing - General Shoaib uploaded another video - mentioning Iran.

Iranians usually have problems with everyone - From Yemen to Pakistan - They like to have their hands get dirty everywhere.

 

[CrazyZ]

IMO, remnants of the ANA and NDS are the main culprits. They have access to NATO style equipment used by the attackers and motive to hurt Pakistan.