ANALYSIS - Bangladesh’s act of balancing Asian giant foes

[Realtalk108]

You had done it when you had our expressed support. And only after we did 90% of the work for you fighting the Pakistanis using attrition tactics. Your army waited in the wings until things dried up in December 1971. In the monsoons, your army would meet its watery end.

That's what I always tell Pakistanis. That it was the Mukti Bahini who did most of the job. They mistakenly blame us for 1971.

 

[VikingRaider]

But the question is - Why shall we

Why will you do this? Well I am not saying that you will do this in future. But it's not guaranteed. There is no alliance that last forever. Besides you already crossed your limit in 2001.

 

[leonblack08]

মিয়াঁ সাহেব আপনি কি ছোটবেলায় পড়া বাঘ আর ছাগশিশুর গল্পটা ভুইল্যা গ্যাছেন? বাঘ বাবাজি পাহাড়ে স্রোতের উপর দিকে আর ছাগশিশু হইলো নিচে পানি পান করতাছে। বাঘে কয় এই ব্যাটা তুই আমার পানি ঘোলা করতাছস। ছাগশিশু কয় হুজুর বাবাজি আমি তো নিচে আর আপনি হইলেন গিয়া উপরে আমি ক্যামনে ঘোলা করলাম।

বাঘে কয় কথা ঠিক তাইলে তুই গ্যালো বছর এই অকামটা করছস। ছাগশিশু কয় হুজুর গ্যালো বছর তো আমার জন্মই হয় নাই। বাঘে কয় কিরে ব্যাটা আবার কতা কস তোর সাহস তো কম না? গত বছর তুই না হইলে তোর বাপে আমার পানি ঘোলা করছিলো। কইয়াই বাঘে ছাগশিশুরে ধইরা খাইয়া ফালাইলো।
We are a downstream country like goat and India an upper stream one like that tiger. We cannot really build a barrage to stop water to flow to India. India plays a tiger and we have to play a goat. However, we have other options as you said. That is the Siliguri option at a time when there is a China-India conflict.

However, BD cannot do it successfully as its military is weak. A misadventure would cause it to lose its independence and to the status of a client state by agreement and treaty. However, the Hasina policy itself has downgraded the status already. We need personalities like Mujib, Zia or Moeen instead of the two bickering Begums.

Nice to see at least someone is thinking!

It is quite intriguing to see our fascination with the Siliguri Corridor. As if we can capture it whenever we wish. Like a "Mama barir abdaar".

But no one seems to be willing to give it a thought that India could effectively open up another front through Bangladesh and head straight for the capital. Because our military is weak at this moment and it cannot hold position in face of a full frontal aggression. It will take years and years of military buildup for Bangladesh military to be able to hold and defend a captured territory.

Also, I have been to Siliguri. Although it was a long long time ago, but there was significant military presence even at that time. Also if I am not mistaken, Sikkim has a large military presence as well to counter China. And Sikkim is I think 5-6 hours from Siliguri.

At this moment, talking about Siliguri Corridor with our current military strength, is nothing but a juvenile fantasy.

 

[bluesky]

Locations of Mukti Bahini on this map are when the conventional war started in the 1st week of December. Most of the Mukti Bahini troops were destroying bridges and communication systems inside the country and harassing the PA troops. The country belonged to the Pak Army during the day and to the Muktis in the night since September or so so.

PA moral was already down in December before Pakistan-India direct war started. It was too painful for India to support 9 million refugees but PM Indira waited with patience until this time so snowfalls in the Himalayas would make it impossible for China to intervene on behalf of PA.

 

[Species]

Nice to see at least someone is thinking!

It is quite intriguing to see our fascination with the Siliguri Corridor. As if we can capture it whenever we wish. Like a "Mama barir abdaar".

But no one seems to be willing to give it a thought that India could effectively open up another front through Bangladesh and head straight for the capital. Because our military is weak at this moment and it cannot hold position in face of a full frontal aggression. It will take years and years of military buildup for Bangladesh military to be able to hold and defend a captured territory.

Also, I have been to Siliguri. Although it was a long long time ago, but there was significant military presence even at that time. Also if I am not mistaken, Sikkim has a large military presence as well to counter China. And Sikkim is I think 5-6 hours from Siliguri.

At this moment, talking about Siliguri Corridor with our current military strength, is nothing but a juvenile fantasy.

If you follow the writings of Sun Tzu and Clausewitz, the quantity of military equipment and troops are just one component of many that determines the result of a war. You have to take other factors like terrain, motivation, characteristics and nature of the people into account.

From my understanding, India would find it quite hard to execute a land invasion into Bangladesh due to the unfavorable terrain. Also, India troops are not really known for their martial abilities and have history of defecting from the battlefield.

The biggest determining factor would be the air space and the IAF would be tasked to establish air superiority over Bangladesh as the foremost priority of Indian military to ensure smooth intrusion of the land forces. Interestingly, this is where Bangladesh lacks the most.

Anyway what we discuss here is quite irrelevant as everything depends on the will of our leadership.

 

[VikingRaider]

Because our military is weak at this moment and it cannot hold position in face of a full frontal aggression.

Yes right. Our military is weak and can't hold position in face of a full frontal aggression, so they require to learn this gospel truth from a specialist like you!

But no one seems to be willing to give it a thought that India could effectively open up another front through Bangladesh and head straight for the capital.

Yes agree, war is walking in a park with girlfriend. So whenever you wish you can do this!

 

[leonblack08]

Yes right. Our military is weak and can't hold position in face of a full frontal aggression, so they require to learn this gospel truth from a specialist like you!
Yes agree, war is walking in a part with girlfriend. So whenever you wish you can do this!

Well Bangladesh army is certainly aware of the ground reality. They do not need to know anything from either you or me.

But people who live in La La Land does need to learn the truth.

If you follow the writings of Sun Tzu and Clausewitz, the quantity of military equipment and troops are just one component of many that determines the result of a war. You have to take other factors like terrain, motivation, characteristics and nature of the people into account.

From my understanding, India would find it quite hard to execute a land invasion into Bangladesh due to the unfavorable terrain. Also, India troops are not really known for their martial abilities and have history of defecting from the battlefield.

The biggest determining factor would be the air space and the IAF would be tasked to establish air superiority over Bangladesh as the foremost priority of Indian military to ensure smooth intrusion of the land forces. Interestingly, this is where Bangladesh lacks the most.

Anyway what we discuss here is quite irrelevant as everything depends on the will of our leadership.

I agree with your views, especially the last sentence.

But just for the sake of strictly hypothetical discussion, yes Air domination by Indian is why our military will have trouble holding on to defensive positions in a captured territory. While I agree that Bangladesh military may be able to successfully conduct guerilla war in our own homeland to defend against an aggressor but capturing a foreign territory requires more punch, which we do not yet have.

And to be honest, I do not quite agree with the logic of "martial abilities" and "history of defecting". We are making biased assumptions for our future judgment based on past experience, but it may not necessarily be repeated again. Situations of the Indian military have also changed from the past. They are now certainly better trained than 1962, 1965 or 1971. While our terrains are difficult and doesn't allow for large scale armour movements, losing the air space will significantly deter our ability to reinforce our advanced positions.

 

[Bilal9]

Well Bangladesh army is certainly aware of the ground reality. They do not need to know anything from either you or me.

But people who live in La La Land does need to learn the truth.



I agree with your views, especially the last sentence.

But just for the sake of strictly hypothetical discussion, yes Air domination by Indian is why our military will have trouble holding on to defensive positions in a captured territory. While I agree that Bangladesh military may be able to successfully conduct guerilla war in our own homeland to defend against an aggressor but capturing a foreign territory requires more punch, which we do not yet have.

And to be honest, I do not quite agree with the logic of "martial abilities" and "history of defecting". We are making biased assumptions for our future judgment based on past experience, but it may not necessarily be repeated again. Situations of the Indian military have also changed from the past. They are now certainly better trained than 1962, 1965 or 1971. While our terrains are difficult and doesn't allow for large scale armour movements, losing the air space will significantly deter our ability to reinforce our advanced positions.

I sense a certain support of Indian hegemony on your part in the veiled guise of realism.

Why do we always have to go weak-kneed anytime we hear the name of Indian Armed forces?? Why do you have so much love for them?

Indians always bluff about everything, including troop strength, which they did during 1971 skirmish. But this time they have to contend with all of Bangladesh opposing them. I am sure we won't invite them in to feed them tea and biscuits. This type of bluffery will not work next time, and we will need to be ready.

To say that Indians will beat their way to Dhaka is an off-the-cuff statement that has no connection with reality. Will our infantry and armored regiments be sitting on their asses and sucking thumbs? You make it sound like it's a walk in the park...

Have Indians try this walk instead during the wet season. See how many Indian commanders agree. They will wet their pants instead. Majority of wet season ambushes by the Mukti Bahini in 1971 saw Pakistani troops get drowned. Very few of these soldiers knew how to swim. Ditto with the Indian troops from North India.

 

[VikingRaider]

But people who live in La La Land does need to learn the truth

Why people need to learn the truth when super specialist like you already know this?
You are a hero our messiah , know something so that's enough!

Majority of wet season ambushes by the Mukti Bahini in 1971 saw Pakistani troops get drowned.

But Indian army will not get drowned I guess. Perhaps we don't know that Indian army is alien who has wings.

@leonblack08 am I not right? Please let our weak army know that aliens can fly, if they already don't know this truth!

 

[bluesky]

While our terrains are difficult and doesn't allow for large scale armour movements, losing the air space will significantly deter our ability to reinforce our advanced positions.

So, buy Russian S-400 missile batteries before BAF buys new planes. Look what wiki says.

In 2017 the S-400 was described by The Economist as "one of the best air-defence systems currently made".[4] According to Siemon Wezeman Senior Researcher of SIPRI the S-400 "is among the most advanced air defence systems available".[5][6]

 

[mb444]

India could not deal with tamils who are their own people in srilanka and had to retreat.....

You need to be high on vedic juice to think that india can achieve conclusive victory against a nation on 165m people and secondly if victory is achieved it can hold on to BD in any way for any period of time. Any such adventure will be an existential threat for india....BD will survive it.

 

[leonblack08]

So, buy Russian S-400 missile batteries before BAF buys new planes. Look what wiki says.

In 2017 the S-400 was described by The Economist as "one of the best air-defence systems currently made".[4] According to Siemon Wezeman Senior Researcher of SIPRI the S-400 "is among the most advanced air defence systems available".[5][6]

I agree with you. I remember back in 2012 I think, there was a similar discussion here in PDF. BAF had just bought the F-7 BGs as a stop-gap measure. Some of us here were hoping for a multi-layered AD system to be implemented soon. But since then only addition was the FM-90 as SHORAD. We have yet to add anything for Mid-Range and Long-Range SAMs, which is very very disappointing.

However, I don't think Russia will sale S-400 to Bangladesh, solely because of Indian veto. India is their bigger customer, and in case of a war between Bangladesh and India, Russia will definitely side with India, which makes them a very unreliable partner.

China is and will still be our best bet to counter India. Now one may argue that China chose Myanmar over Bangladesh in the Rohingya issue and that makes them unreliable. But I would like to point out that, China has a history of supplying arms to both sides. Like in the Iraq-Iran war, China supplied to both sides. (Source: https://www.cia.gov/library/readingroom/docs/CIA-RDP86T01017R000606490001-5.pdf)

China will do it's best to protect its self-interest. Both Bangladesh and Myanmar are important for China strategically. So I think China will definitely supply military equipment to Bangladesh in case of Bangladesh-Myanmar war, and of course, will supply in case of Bangladesh-India war.

That makes China a reliable business partner at least. So I would advocate building a multi-layered air defense system based on Chinese SAMs like FD 2000/ HQ-9.

 

[leonblack08]

I sense a certain support of Indian hegemony on your part in the veiled guise of realism.

Why do we always have to go weak-kneed anytime we hear the name of Indian Armed forces?? Why do you have so much love for them?

Indians always bluff about everything, including troop strength, which they did during 1971 skirmish. But this time they have to contend with all of Bangladesh opposing them. I am sure we won't invite them in to feed them tea and biscuits. This type of bluffery will not work next time, and we will need to be ready.

To say that Indians will beat their way to Dhaka is an off-the-cuff statement that has no connection with reality. Will our infantry and armored regiments be sitting on their asses and sucking thumbs? You make it sound like it's a walk in the park...

Have Indians try this walk instead during the wet season. See how many Indian commanders agree. They will wet their pants instead. Majority of wet season ambushes by the Mukti Bahini in 1971 saw Pakistani troops get drowned. Very few of these soldiers knew how to swim. Ditto with the Indian troops from North India.

You are not the first individual to label me as "pro-India" or "pro-Pakistan" or "pro-China". I have already told you in another thread that you are free to make your own assumptions about me, whatever makes you happy.

Now let's discuss the issue at hand one by one.

1. Say Bangladesh Military captured the "coveted" Siliguri Corridor. That would clearly mean an all-out war with India. The very first move India is likely going to make is establishing complete air domination. This would be achieved fairly quickly because our air force lacks the fighter jets and effective SAM systems to protect our skies with the current capability.

Once their air superiority is established, our armored regiments will be severely at risk from the air and it will limit their movement. Practically, they will be sitting ducks without proper Anti-Air support. So Bangladesh Military will immediately have to resort to guerilla tactics. But that will mean Bangladesh Military will have to cede territory without any resistance initially and then make it a nightmare for the occupying Indian forces with constant guerilla attacks. So in a sense, it will be a walk in the park for them to reach Dhaka initially.

The war will very much become like the ones in Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan, dragging on for years. It will become a war of attrition. India will certainly not be able to sustain that In Sha Allah. Their economy is not powerful enough to sustain a war of that magnitude.

Now refer to post#37 where I said this- "While I agree that Bangladesh military may be able to successfully conduct guerilla war in our own homeland to defend against an aggressor but capturing a foreign territory requires more punch, which we do not yet have."

Try to understand the context of the discussion.

Even if we end up winning an attrition war after years of fighting, who is even the winner of such war? We will certainly lose our economy and lose innocent civilians. That's why I had to burst the bubble of the fantasy boys here.

2. Now you brought up 1971- That is almost 50 years ago. Have you taken into consideration the significant improvement in military airlift, engineer corp capabilities due to changes in technology since then? Don't fall trap to consistency bias.

3. Now the swimming issue. This sounds absolutely ridiculous to believe. In Bangladesh military for example, swimming is probably one of the first things that they are taught, if they haven't yet already done so during ISSB prep. It is really hard to believe that the Indian military will not have that kind of training in place, unless of course, you have a legitimate source to support that argument.

The school of thought I prefer to belong to is to learn about your opponent's strengths and Weaknesses, while you learn about your own as well. I do not believe belittling your opponent is the wise move, but it does not imply submissiveness.

Why people need to learn the truth when super specialist like you already know this?
You are a hero our messiah , know something so that's enough!



But Indian army will not get drowned I guess. Perhaps we don't know that Indian army is alien who has wings.

@leonblack08 am I not right? Please let our weak army know that aliens can fly, if they already don't know this truth!

So it seems you are still triggered for me calling you out. If you have nothing useful to add to the discussion apart from the personal jabs, I suggest you move on.

Also, please do not tag me. If I find your post interesting, I will respond to it. But I am not here to entertain your attention-seeking behavior.

Thank you.

 

[VikingRaider]

Also, please do not tag me. If I find your post interesting, I will respond to it.

It's an open forum, not your private profile page. If you want to discuss in an open forum, you have to face this condition. So I suggest you to get used to it.

But I am not here to entertain your attention-seeking behavior.

Hehe, did you hear the story? There was a river, and on its both bank there was one sage and one who.re and in middle a theif in a boat who just stole the boat?

However every one is judging others as how great they are. Sage was thinking that these other two are greater sage than , and he was sad. Same for the others!

It was me who started with shiliguri corridor and also building a barrage like farakka by tagging another poster. And his response was to me.

Yet it make you so emotional that you replying him by indirectly addressing me! ভারতের সেনাবাহিনী অক্ষমতার কথা শুনে জ্বালা ধরে গেছিল, তাই না? However again, it's an open forum and you can discuss in any matter of any one.

Even before this thread I was not aware of your existence in this forum. But you already read my topic.

So if you don't like me quote you, simply click on my profile and put me in your ignore list instead of giving lecture!

@leonblack08

3. Now the swimming issue. This sounds absolutely ridiculous to believe. In Bangladesh military for example, swimming is probably one of the first things that they are taught, if they haven't yet already done so during ISSB prep. It is really hard to believe that the Indian military will not have that kind of training in place, unless of course, you have a legitimate source to support that argument.

Aha so you believe that Indian army will be swiming and fighting when they will be ambushed,well then I think it's over.
You believe that war is a video game where you can fast swim and reach a safe place!

Well I could be dead wrong though, because after all its alien army and how weak Bangladeshi army can ambush them. I am afraid now about our sovereignty!

 

[leonblack08]

It's an open forum, not your private profile page. If you want to discuss in an open forum, you have to face this condition. So I suggest you to get used to it.

Hehe, did you hear the story? There was a river, and on its both bank there was one sage and one who.re and in middle a theif in a boat who just stole the boat?

However every one is judging others as how great they are. Sage was thinking that these other two are greater sage than , and he was sad. Same for the others!

It was me who started with shiliguri corridor and also building a barrage like farakka by tagging another poster. And his response was to me.

Yet it make you so emotional that you replying him by indirectly addressing me! ভারতের সেনাবাহিনী অক্ষমতার কথা শুনে জ্বালা ধরে গেছিল, তাই না? However again, it's an open forum and you can discuss in any matter of any one.

Even before this thread I was not aware of your existence in this forum. But you already read my topic.

So if you don't like me quote you, simply click on my profile and put me in your ignore list instead of giving lecture!

@leonblack08
Aha so you believe that Indian army will be swiming and fighting when they will be ambushed,well then I think it's over.
You believe that war is a video game where you can fast swim and reach a safe place!

Well I could be dead wrong though, because after all its alien army and how weak Bangladeshi army can ambush them. I am afraid now about our sovereignty!

Again, just plain gibberish with no substance at all.

This is an open forum, right? I appreciated and responded to BlueSky's post because he was rightly able to point out that Siliguri Corridor only comes into play for Bangladesh in case of an Indo-China war. Not in a stand-alone war situation between Bangladesh and India, certainly not at the present strength of Bangladesh Military. I appreciated the fact that he understood the ground reality and not get carried away by jingoism like I see so many of you doing. And he was also very much correct about us being a downstream country. Something you should have also known as basic general knowledge.

You have written 3-4 posts since then with the sole agenda of demeaning and mocking me, instead of presenting a single discussion to defend your position. Now I have clarified my statement quite elaborately in posts#37 and 43. I have discussed one possible scenario that is likely to happen. But have you done the same for your stance?

You have instead conveniently avoided the discussion and posted more gibberish.

I would be glad to discuss any other possible scenarios you might have, to establish how Bangladesh Military with its current strength might be able to hold on to captured territories in the Siliguri corridor and all the while not lose our own territory. There certainly may be other scenarios apart from what I mentioned, which I am not foreseeing at this moment. I would certainly love to discuss those here.

But if you cannot bring anything fruitful to the discussion, I suggest you move on and stop making fool of yourself with all these immature childish antics.