SSBNs are above and beyond Pakistan's means and its scope of being a regional power. In fact, operating a fleet of even a dozen modern SSKs such as U-214 and Agosta-90B would be a formidable force in both the Indian Ocean and Arabian Sea. For example, Pakistan has an SLCM program which was at the focus of controversy surrounding the Type-214 deal in Germany. Having a number of LACM (possibly nuclear) armed SSKs swimming around would be enough to keep powers such as India and even Israel at bay.
Going a step further with an SSN or SSGN would imply power-projection and be taken as an offensive stance by certain countries. If anything, an SSGN is at the outer limit of what Pakistan might be able to afford and produce in the foreseeable future, and other states (such as U.S, Europe, India/Israel) will have to sit down and live with such a reality. But an SSBN is something used to assert far-reaching global projection - alongside large nuclear powered aircraft carriers and ICBMs. In fact, this was one of the reasons why Pakistan is has kept development of its Ghauri III (3500-4000km), Shaheeen III (4000-4500km), MIRV and even LACM programs relatively LOW KEY (
link).
I wouldn't be surprised if the National Security Council is hesitant to test an SLV because that too might somehow be misconstrued and send the wrong message! Predictably, ICBM concepts would likely be in suspended animation right now...only to be revitalized if and when the world treats Pakistan like Iran..
Back to the SSN issue...this is how I see it...don't expect anything in this regard at least until Pakistan Navy has a healthy fleet of
12~15 SSKs. How this occurs, what is the composition of ships (are mini-SSKs included), I can't say...but a conventional submarine fleet is the priority right now. If and when this is accomplished, alongside a good surface fleet, air force, army, etc...we may see a series of Strategic Programs launched - such as SSGN, ICBMs, LPDs, etc. But this is long-term.
