I am thankful for challenging me in the right way, I have heard same complain from others sometime regarding my laziness or attitude. I elaborated some what in an earlier post but will give more reasons.
There is a chance in the shift of policies in US as Democratic President is finishing his second term. Senate/Congress is already Republican. The chances are that next President will be most probably Republican. Traditionally we had good relationship with Republicans, but that was Cold War era. Now India is influencing Republicans directly and through its Allies considerably. Bottom line is what sort of relationship Pakistan will have when it comes to supply of arms from US? It may have some issues in the future and the long time frame does not help Pakistan. Agree US has to supply these Helos to Marine Corps but still it is a long time. Things can change and Pakistan needed to upgrade it over worked Helicopter fleet during last decade. We need good anti armor helos with night capabilities now. Chances are Russian Mi28 could have been inducted by 2016-2017. By making payment for AH1Z this early Pakistan which is cash strapped is committed and stuck with the deal. Kindly recall Pakistan was offered edible oil for refund of money in 90s. The chances of getting a front line plane from US are not high in the near future. Agreed after Apache AH1Z are the best Gunships, however Mi28 is not far behind. The purchase of Mi28 from Russia could open the avenue of buying planes, engines and avionics. Granted India can influence Russia too, but the relationship is rather cooling off.
But what is done is over. For now Pakistan should consider adding some lightly armed/armored scout helicopters NVAIDS. These helos/combined with drones can help CPEC protection, surveillance/anti terrorist operations in Punjab, Balochistan,Sindh where terrain is not very high above sea level. This will reduce the requirement of full gunships. Getting off topic so ending it here. We need conventional arms to keep India in check and we need good Helos, Air Superiority Planes, medium range Air Defense systems and some tanks now.
Thank you for a detailed post. The USA influence war for Pakistan was lost in 1950s. As things have progressed and India has stepped out of the shadows of USSR and US has set it's eyes on curtailing and Corralling the Chinese and Russian influence the dynamics of things have changed further in India,s favour as far as the US goes. In a day and age where money has a dynamics of its own we have been further hampered by not having a political system which has matured and a dictatorial system ala Singapore that has killed off all opposition and driven the country forward in a regimental fashion. The result is politcal immaturity leading to rampant corruption and anarchy and economic anaemia which has become chronic and requires regular infusions. However the leeches get the better of the nation and while they get their fill the country goes weaker.
The army has tried its hand at governance but the same evil that afflicted the politicians has afflicted them and the country is currently pining for a cure. Whether this cure is surgical debridement or political toilette remains to be seen.
On the international scene a lack of clear dirction and sustained policy has given mixed messages to all and sundry and allowed the country to become the playground of all that is evil and bad for the country. People may talk of men in blacksuits but hte fact is there are none anda goon in a shalwar Kameez is just as bad as a goon in a blue suit or a uniform.
In the absence of a clear direction we also have a need to pronect ourselves as an independent nation(at least in our view) and equal to all.
Now look at the international arms scene and specifically at the gunship helicopter acquisition. We traditionally have had 3 sourcesthe EU,US and USSR. The last one has been close to us for decades and traditionally we have had to rely on the former 2 for our needs. As the price has gone up and our economic anaemia has failed to keep our nourishment upto satisfactory levels ,we have progressively relied on western second hand platforms for our needs(western here equates to EU and US).
Two significant changes have occurred during the last 5 years or so. Firstly and most significantly the Chinese aviation industries have come up with platforms which are capable of giving anyother platform a run for their money. Secondly and less significantly the Russians have opened their doors. The US offering interestingly came immediately after the Chinese sent 3 z10s for evaluation and the Russians announced that they are in advanced negotiations for the sale of MI35. Whether one ,two or a three developments were reactionary is difficult to say however to be fair to US they have always said that AH1Z will not be available for sale till 2014-15.
Our problem now is how to play this game since all 3 parties are equally important to us and vice versa. We have fears of embargo from the US and a bad supply line and lack of financial arrangements from the Russians. The Chinese products are being evaluated and we dont know the results of this so it is a difficult situation to evaluate.
So how do I see this situation evolving. I think that we will get the 15 AH1Zs and possibly upto 20 MI35(The later possibly for SASGs). If the WZ10 is found to be good we will buy it as our work horse either as it is or with modifications. Otherwise we will recommend changes to our friends. The fact that they have gifted the platform for use in a war theatre means tbat either they are confident of the platform working well or they genuinely want to test how it will perform In war scenarios. In case of the later it will quietly go back for modifications and reevaluations. In case this takes time or does not work PAA will either go for more AH1Zs or MI28S if they are stil on offer. Otherwisd we will wait for and induct Z10 when ready.
On other friends as well we willprobably do the same and go for Chinese platforms wherever possible with local manufacturing /overhaul facilities.
My input into the situation.
Araz