extra terrestrial
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In 1947, it was hard to tell what would transpire in the future, but the geographical distance and ethnic difference was a big enough factor that people like Mountbatten predicted that Pakistan will break in about 25 years, which was exactly what happened.
Absolutely. Since you have put forth the predictions by the British about the future of the subcontinent, let me add that they also predicted Calcutta will soon start to decline right after the partition and that's exactly what happened. The only prediction that proved to be wrong was the future economic status of East Bengal. They said East Bengal won't survive without the western part of Bengal, in contrast we not only survived but have already surpassed West Bengal by miles and on the way to surpass Pakistan.
1. Having 3 independent countries would definitely have been a better choice
2. The other option would have been to start with much more federalized looser union with an escape clause for separation by referendum in any one wing
Option 2 had the added advantage of having a common foreign policy and defense, but separate bureaucratic and financial management.
Instead of option 1 or 2, what we had was an effort at integrating two separate landmass, their population and a transplanted migrant population from India, who moved to both wings. It was an ambitious project, it was mismanaged and it failed. While a more modest goal of 2 might have worked, a more ambitious goal has failed.
About the second option, you first need to have strong democratic environment to ensure its implementation and given the events that took place between 47 and 71 and the post-71 political history of both Bangladesh and Pakistan, we can safely conclude that option 2 was never going to be successful.
As for Jinnah's personal motivation for doing what he did, I do not know enough to comment. He was a Gujarati Muslim of Shia sect who married a Parsi lady. He was one of the representatives of the then educated Hindustani Muslim elite, many of whom migrated to both wings. Naturally he would try to further the interest of his group, sometimes at the expense of other ethnic groups. So I think it is only natural and any Bengali in his position would have done worse. So we should not blame him for not creating 3 separate countries. If Bengali leaders were really serious about this goal and believed in it, they should have pursued it on their own, regardless of whether West Bengal wanted to be with East Bengal or not. We cannot blame Jinnah for this, because he was not a Bengali leader and getting an independent East Bengal was not his responsibility. He did what he had to do, but it was our Bengali leaders who lacked foresight and vision and failed our people. At least they could have negotiated with Jinnah for a No. 2 option constitution from the start, instead of what we started out with. If we had a constitution like that, then we could probably avoid the situation in 1971 and the union could still survive. And if there was difficulty still, we could separate without any bloodshed, just by holding a referendum on one side.
First of all, Jinnah was regarded as the supreme leader of the Muslims of the subcontinent, he was the president of the central Muslim league. Now to be a justified candidate for this position, shouldn't he be working for the welfare of all the Muslims without being partial towards a particular ethic group? Some people here saying that Jinnah supported the independent Bengal plan, sure he supported it but it was only a tacit support, not an explicit one. Moreover, Nazimuddin, Akram Khan, Nurul Amin were ordered by Jinnah not to negotiate with the Hindu leaders. You said a Bengali leader in Jinnah's position would have done worse - I'm not sure about that. As I said earlier, Suhrawardy, Abul Hashim realized Jinnah's prejudice against Bengalis quite long before the partition and that independent Bengal plan was also in existence. But they kept it concealed just for the sake of the unity among the Muslims of the sub continent and disclosed the plan only when British parliament past the Indian independence bill. The Cabinet Mission gave them only 2 months to campaign for the independent Bengal plan, while Jinnah had some 7 years for his Pakistan movement. About the negotiation on constitution, as I said you would need to ensure strong democratic environment to implement the constitution. Even if they had successfully negotiated for the constitution it wouldn't be implemented for sure.
The failure which culminated in the war in 1971, created a rift between 3 main groups of Muslim populations in South Asia, Bengal Muslims, Hindustani Muslims and Pakistan Muslims, which could have been avoided.
Now the ghost of 1971 still affects future common endeavors by any of these 3 groups. What we should learn from this is that any geopolitical decision by a country or people of a landmass has to be much more carefully thought out, to avoid this kind of catastrophic failures.
Exactly. The formation of Pakistan with that geographical distance was not only an ambitious but a fallible one. You would only see this type of geographical distance among the imperial colonies. The political consciousness of Bengalis should also be taken into consideration. Bengalis are arguably the most politically conscious among all the ethnic groups in the subcontinent. Remember, the earliest anti-British movements started from Bengal, including the Great Sepoy Mutiny in 1857. Because of this political consciousness, it's hard to keep them under a political deprivation for long. And that's why the matter of Bangladesh and Bengalis cannot be compared with that of other unfortunate ethnic groups who are still living under a political withholding.