FaujHistorian
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Actually we need to go back to 1985-86 time frame when Russian Commies showed the world how to control Afghanistan. Not govern it, no no
just keep it under the thumb. That's all
No need to keep 100s of 1000s of troops on Afghan soil.
no need
Strength of Russian approach:
Very small footprint (10-15 k troops),
Use helicopter gunship + troop carriers and
have fighter bombers overhead
Weakness of Russians: another super power USA gave the anti-dote to Muj in the form of stingers
Fast forward to 2001
Americans used the same
GW used the exact same method and kept Talibarbarians on the run
However Prez Obama in order to upend GW, ended up deploying needelessly 100K+ troops.
This was utter $tupidity. Afgh is not Iraq. Geography history and sociology is TOTALLY different. There was no need to do surge. Never.
Think 100s of bowls sitting next to each other. That's Afghanistan for you.
Very difficult to manuver and traverse for large number of troops.
While the local warlords can walk in those valleys in small numbers and ambush the slow moving large convoys.
But if you use a group of gunships and troop carrier helicopters, then the same series of bowls become death traps for the Muj and war lords.
Remember Afghanistan is not a country to occupy and civilized. They already have their civilization.
No Siree
Instead It is a country to be "managed" to the minimal extent
So if Prez Obama is willing to learn from history, then he will continue to manage it using 10-15k troops .
However if he is in a hurry to declare victory but accept defeat, he will pull out
It all depends on how USA/NATO manage Afgh later this year and beyond
My hunch is that they will continue to manage.
peace
just keep it under the thumb. That's all
No need to keep 100s of 1000s of troops on Afghan soil.
no need
Strength of Russian approach:
Very small footprint (10-15 k troops),
Use helicopter gunship + troop carriers and
have fighter bombers overhead
Weakness of Russians: another super power USA gave the anti-dote to Muj in the form of stingers
Fast forward to 2001
Americans used the same
GW used the exact same method and kept Talibarbarians on the run
However Prez Obama in order to upend GW, ended up deploying needelessly 100K+ troops.
This was utter $tupidity. Afgh is not Iraq. Geography history and sociology is TOTALLY different. There was no need to do surge. Never.
Think 100s of bowls sitting next to each other. That's Afghanistan for you.
Very difficult to manuver and traverse for large number of troops.
While the local warlords can walk in those valleys in small numbers and ambush the slow moving large convoys.
But if you use a group of gunships and troop carrier helicopters, then the same series of bowls become death traps for the Muj and war lords.
Remember Afghanistan is not a country to occupy and civilized. They already have their civilization.
No Siree
Instead It is a country to be "managed" to the minimal extent
So if Prez Obama is willing to learn from history, then he will continue to manage it using 10-15k troops .
However if he is in a hurry to declare victory but accept defeat, he will pull out
It all depends on how USA/NATO manage Afgh later this year and beyond
My hunch is that they will continue to manage.
peace