Interesting analyze but in my opinion very superficial. I will go throw and point out why.
Thanks for putting your thoughts in PDF and let me address your words point by point.
First thing, your understanding of Afghan situation as an American is proven failure. So its good time that you as an American listen more and understand what you don't.
Not really, 9/11 changed the world, today its deferent environment what will happen if US leaves it will boast the moral of Jahadist, they will claim they have defeated yet another super power. What is the grantee they will NOT try to impose their will on a much weaker Pakistani state?
Your own words are admitting defeat in Afghanistan and rather you are frightening of dire consequences of the aftermaths. So the change that America had tried to bring to the world is not practically sustainable by the world-powers. Secretary of United State have admitted there are moderate Taliban with whom her Government can talk. Does that explain something? Yes America is ready to compromise a lot and will have to accept what was unacceptable before. So the change that you are talking of has changed yet again.
In short term it will, but in long term any Pakhtun centric government in Afghanistan will look at India as strategic partner, that is if nationalism takes a hold in Taliban.
Actually Alice in wonderland has its last chapter already written.
You mean Taliban run Afghanistan, yes it will not only to America but the whole world and region, including China, Russia, Iran and India. The question is what will these countries do in response to this threat? will they set idyll and allow Taliban take over? Once the America leaves the nationalist forces will not stay with Taliban, what will these nationalist Pashtons do if they gain the support of India, Russia and Iran?
Other than India, American exit suits Russia and China as well as Pakistan and Iran. So the only helping hand India is already doing its best to support America in Afghanistan and how much it is helping is already on the table. Every other country of the region including Pakistan would want to see a stable Afghanistan but when "dog" is out of the well, only then the cleansing procedure would begin. We know it is going to take time to make things better in Afghanistan but the Cancer must be taken out before expecting improvements.
You need to realize that no gov can touch a nation unless her people allows it. You might call the nationalist in Balochistan as terrorist and what not but the fact is majority of Baloch sees them as freedom fighters. In 60+ years 3 times Balochs have rebelled, this should tell you that there are grievances and if you want to resolve these issues then you MUST address these grievances.
Baluchistan has issues, we accept that but these are the bull$hit Americans who are allowing India to operate and beef up this insurgency. We need American dirty hand out first and Indian elements will eradicate itself. Again, when dog is still in the well, we don't expect water to be pure.
Most Afghans hates Taliban as much as most Pakistanis do. No sane person would want to live under Taliban rule. Now by imposing Taliban on Afghanistan, pakistani gov will gain the aversion of afghan people. In term of economy taliban have no plan or agenda, infect I’m sure they don't even know what economy is. Before 9/11 trade between Afghanistan and Pakistan was under $100 million. In 2008 the trade or should I say the Pakistan export to Afghanistan for the trade is very asymmetric, consisting for the most part by imports from Pakistan, as compared to very little formal Afghan exports has raise over $1 billion.
Correction, we hate TTP that is independent of Afghan Talibans. Most of our countrymen do not feel threatened by the Afghan Taliban and we have our connections with them. Afghanistan is land-locked and it is populated by Sunni Pashtoons. If Afghanistan needs to trade with the world, Pakistan is the answer for their survival. Regarding other economic matters, thats only a small portion of bigger picture and even if it does not improve, our other gains will be substantial.
There will not be peace on western border, Taliban don't know peace, and even if we accept that Taliban enjoy Pakhtun majority support what is the grantee the Pakhtun of FATA or NFWP won't demand the same Islamic Sharia? For even the pro-pakistan Pakistani Taliban have their allegiance to Mullah Omar.
Sharia is not an issue. Pakistan Government has accepted it for the Vally of Sawat and we can do it again if asked. Sharia is Islamic Law and that wont hurt Muslims. Mullah Omer is not hostile towards Pakistan, neither Gulbadeen Hikmatyar or Jallal-udin-Haqqani and the clan is. We are not DEAD as you are trying to suggest if Taliban take over yet again, which nevertheless they would. Pakistan's security doesn't come after American security.. rather we are safer when Americans are kicked out of Afghanistan because this will end the Indian Honey Moon of Afghanistan at the same time.
I don't think America will close their eyes on the threat to their country and peoples safety. Unlike our politician the American politician do care for life and safety of their people.
Over all, what we need to understand is Afghan nationalism is actually Pakhtun nationalism, it's Afghan Pakhtun that demands creation of Pakhtunistan not the Afghan Persian. What is the grantee ones Pakhtun Taliban takes over Kabul and establishes their hold they will not demand Pakhutnistan? Or all Pakistan for ideologically they don’t see any border between Muslim.
Again, an American brain is working. No offense but you and most of the western countries have been deluded to an unprecedented levels.. since you have tried everything you could, its time when you can start reading chapters from our book. It wont suit you as you might imagine but it depicts reality. America is the problem in Afghanistan, Not Taliban or Alqaeda. These are your absurd policies that have created Havoc in Pakistan and these are your drones that are creating problems for Pakistan. When I say the "dog" must be taken out of Afghanistan, understand what is meaning of "dog" in Indian Subcontinent.
