ADBI: Heavy reliance on overseas borrowing may hurt Bangladesh development

[UKBengali]

Guys since the comparison was made with Pakistan let us use the language of mathematics to see if BD is likely to face the same problems 5-10 years down the line:

Both BD and Pakistan have similar size economy but BD is expected to grow much faster up to 2030. Pakistan does have higher taxs revenue but BD spends much less on defence and so the amount of money available to each government is roughly the same.


Pakistan foreign debt right now stands at 95 billion US dollars:

https://tradingeconomics.com/pakistan/external-debt

Bangladesh foreign debt stands at 29 billion US dollars:

https://tradingeconomics.com/bangladesh/external-debt

So we can see that BD has less than 1/3rd of the foreign debt of Pakistan with a GDP the same size.

The total of the Chinese and Russian loans that BD is committed to take out over the next decade is around 30 -35 billion US dollars and so that will only double the debt by 2030. Remember that BD GDP will be more than twice as large by 2030 and so the external debt as a percentage of GDP will stay at the current 10% of GDP.

Also, unlike Pakistan BD does not take out short-term high interest loans from lenders like the IMF, it is always very soft(Japan, ADB) or soft loans(Russia, China).

In conclusion, there is no danger of BD falling into the same debt problem as Pakistan and so we need not worry and the debt is being used to build infrastructure projects that will benefit BD economically and socially.

 

[VikingRaider]

Both BD and Pakistan have similar size economy but BD is expected to grow much faster up to 2030. Pakistan does have higher taxs revenue but BD spends much less on defence and so the amount of money available to each government is roughly the same.

My post will be a mixture of slightly off topic matter.

Maybe under Imran Khan regime Pakistan too will do much better? You see even 10 years ago our bd economy was staggering ( accepting that awami league did much development, just disagree with all exaggerations of you peoples), but now it's much better. But as I say we deserve more. From 1972-75 awami league treated peoples like dogs, and in 2001-2006 BNP regime peoples were also treated like animals.
So those are dark periods of Bangladesh.
But now development started and that's fine. So maybe Imran Khan will start a new age of development of Pakistan, as Hasina started for Bangladesh. So it's actually unwise to exaggerate development work by comparing it with India and Pakistan.
We need to focus on our own . And also we can't tolerate opposition, and even can't accept them who goes slightly against our opinion. Finally no one deny the development, just complain about exaggeration , and in these 10 years our development ration is better than Pakistan, so some of us are thinking that we are in heaven . But that's not the realistic idea.
But that's not. If govt is honest, they could do more development and still can do.

And also fruitful criticism can make a side better , so no reason to be unhappy for fruitful criticism.

 

[Mage]

My post will be a mixture of slightly off topic matter.

Maybe under Imran Khan regime Pakistan too will do much better? You see even 10 years ago our bd economy was staggering ( accepting that awami league did much development, just disagree with all exaggerations of you peoples), but now it's much better. But as I say we deserve more. From 1972-75 awami league treated peoples like dogs, and in 2001-2006 BNP regime peoples were also treated like animals.
So those are dark periods of Bangladesh.
But now development started and that's fine. So maybe Imran Khan will start a new age of development of Pakistan, as Hasina started for Bangladesh. So it's actually unwise to exaggerate development work by comparing it with India and Pakistan.
We need to focus on our own . And also we can't tolerate opposition, and even can't accept them who goes slightly against our opinion. Finally no one deny the development, just complain about exaggeration , and in these 10 years our development ration is better than Pakistan, so some of us are thinking that we are in heaven . But that's not the realistic idea.
But that's not. If govt is honest, they could do more development and still can do.

And also fruitful criticism can make a side better , so no reason to be unhappy for fruitful criticism.

BD and Pakistan both need economic reform. Pakistan's case is a bit extreme. They have to take loan to pay back loans that they previously took. Now approaching IMF is a double edged sword as well. Their loan comes with too much conditions. But one good thing is Pakistan will be forced to implement some economic reform, which may help them long in the future. BD's case the inept policies are gonna continue for long as our govt officials are totally corrupt and inept.

 

[bluesky]

Bangladesh foreign debt stands at 29 billion US dollars:

Add the $12 billion Russian loan to make the external debt to a staggering $41 billion in 2024 when the project will be commissioned. Can you explain us the Russian loan for the Rooppur plant with some details of the interest rate/amount as well? Why is it necessary to buy a plant so expensive? By the way, what happened to the world's most expensive $7 billion International Airport? So, this will be added to the loan.

Now, about Chinese loan. BD has accepted a $22 billion worth of Chinese loan that will be released during the next couple of years. So, it is already (41 + 7 + 22) = $70 billion, and we are nowhere anything near development. Will you guys first fix the transport jam in Dhaka before you claim to be out of LDC status.

 

[Mage]

Add the $12 billion Russian loan to make the external debt to a staggering $41 billion in 2024 when the project will be commissioned. Can you explain us the Russian loan for the Rooppur plant with some details of the interest rate/amount as well? Why is it necessary to buy a plant so expensive? By the way, what happened to the world's most expensive $7 billion International Airport? So, this will be added to the loan.

Now, about Chinese loan. BD has accepted a $22 billion worth of Chinese loan that will be released during the next couple of years. So, it is already (41 + 7 + 22) = $70 billion, and we are nowhere anything near development. Will you guys first fix the transport jam in Dhaka before you claim to be out of LDC status.

About the Chinese loan, not much of it has materialised yet. It will take 5-6 years to fully materialised. No loan taken yet for the Airport...heck they are not even done with the planning stage yet. So even if they take loan it will be 5-6 years later. There is no need to panic yet. However it is necessary to be cautious.

 

[Bilal9]

https://www.geo.tv/latest/214495-pakistan-should-disclose-debts-with-absolute-transparency-imf

Getting loans from IMF is a double-edged sword....