A comprehensive military operation across the last remaining areas in FATA, still under insurgent control, was always going to reduce the overall incidents of terrorism. However, as many argued at the start of the operation, and still do, the TTP and associated groups will eventually make a comeback, though at a smaller scale than before. That is essentially what we are seeing now - smaller scale hit and run attacks in the cities and in some areas of FATA.
For the short to medium term the situation is going to settle into this 'new normal', likely with the average number of terrorist attacks fluctuating around the lows we have seen of late, with the odd spike here and there. There is both opportunity and risk here - opportunity in that the dispersal of militants and the denial of 'sanctuary' they enjoyed in FATA has tangibly weakened them and their vulnerabilities can be exploited to further isolate and neutralize.
The risk here is that the absence of a concerted and comprehensive effort (and yes, the non-military law enforcement component is key here) to target terrorists outside of FATA will allow terrorists to adapt and strengthen in this new environment. Unfortunately, I don't really see any interest, let alone effort, on the part of the political parties running the 4 main provinces to undertake the necessary institutional reforms.
