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A year on from Zarb i Azb : How much has changed ?

The problem is not so much the lack of media access in the conflict zone (again, see my previous comment about the odds being stacked heavily against the TTP in a controlled conflict zone such as NW) as it is about whether the civilian administration will be able to step in when the IDP's return and earn the support of the majority. That support will be critical for both military and non-military counter-terrorism efforts in a zone that will no longer be governed by the RoE's that are currently in place.

The military has demonstrated the success of a similar strategy in Swat, but Swat was/is more progressive than most parts of FATA from a socio-cultural perspective and more integrated, ideologically and tangibly, with Pakistan/Pakistani Nationhood. FATA, post IDP return, will be significantly more challenging, not because of a failure of the military strategy, but because there appears to be no strategy in place to establish local civilian-led institutions that can govern and provide services in conjunction with the military providing macro-level security.

The military has made sure that civilian authority remains ineffectual, having persistently undermined it for decades, all over the country. So what will happen here will again be a demonstration of the same.
 
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The military has made sure that civilian authority remains ineffectual, having persistently undermined it for decades, all over the country. So what will happen here will again be a demonstration of the same.
Army wants civil administration strong enough to hold the areas which it clears.
Military does not want civilian authority to remain ineffectual in FATA and the areas in which it is conducting CI ops because the military does not want to get bogged down in a two front war. Deployments in the West always affect the deterrence in the East. After Mumbai attacks, army pulled out troops from FATA and Swat and deployed them on Eastern borders negating some gains made against terrorists in those areas.
 
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This article is just a show of frustration over not getting the access to NW. Considering how DAWN has teamed up with GEO group to bash the Army in recent times, it's hardly surprising. Army has occasionally given access to media, the claim of a blackout is plain wrong.

Zarb-e-azb has clearly lead to the ~40% dip in terrorism related casualties. What these idiots fail to understand is that this operation is also going on in the urban and rural areas of Sindh and Punjab where the strategy is to use Intel Borne Raids. Over 30,000 raids have been carried out since December.

Overall, the outcome of the operation hinges on the outcome of Shawal Valley op. It's going to be a tough and bloody battle. Army wants to make sure that it can take the valley without too many casualties.

December, you mean last December ?

That's about 6 months. 30,000 raids in 6 months, means 5,000 a month or over 166 a day or 7 raids taking place every hour considering it goes on 24/7. Well, a that's a huge number of raids, meaning a very huge number of potential targets.
 
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December, you mean last December ?

That's about 6 months. 30,000 raids in 6 months, means 5,000 a month or over 166 a day or 7 raids taking place every hour considering it goes on 24/7. Well, a that's a huge number of raids, meaning a very huge number of potential targets.
HAhaha...that is the difference between a thinking human and a sheep.(maybe the OP is saying from last June to this June)
 
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HAhaha...that is the difference between a thinking human and a sheep.(maybe the OP is saying from last June to this June)

that's 83 raids per day. I will consider 300 a year to be a very high rate.
 
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The military has made sure that civilian authority remains ineffectual, having persistently undermined it for decades, all over the country. So what will happen here will again be a demonstration of the same.
The civilians can't keep hiding behind the past forever. The argument you made, while valid historically, has been used (and is being used) as an excuse by our civilian polity to explain away their continual failures. That has to stop.

Failure on the part of civilian authority, after at least making an effort, is understandable and might even be forgivable. Failure without any effort is not.
 
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December, you mean last December ?

That's about 6 months. 30,000 raids in 6 months, means 5,000 a month or over 166 a day or 7 raids taking place every hour considering it goes on 24/7. Well, a that's a huge number of raids, meaning a very huge number of potential targets.

As part of National Action Plan, the Intelligence has been given the wheel of the LEAs. 30k IBOs in six months is an evidence to state how much intelligence work had been done before that. This strategy has helped us prevent any major urban blow backs so far.
 
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As part of National Action Plan, the Intelligence has been given the wheel of the LEAs. 30k IBOs in six months is an evidence to state how much intelligence work had been done before that. This strategy has helped us prevent any major urban blow backs so far.
Yes, I agree, no major incidents in past six months, only one involving the Shias in bus. But nobody can prevent all of them.
 
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Yes, I agree, no major incidents in past six months, only one involving the Shias in bus. But nobody can prevent all of them.

Yea it was carried out by Al-qaeda. The terrorists behind it have been arrested.
 
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Our forefathers knew that if they got rid of british slavery they would fall in desi slavery so making of a country was essential.

Today if we win war on terror that i believe we have, we may face other players around. Military we've used many times now there is need to make diplomacy stronger.
 
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Well it's a Dawn editorial, so you can't really expect it to be accurate.

Secondly, forget armchair generals, even some of our highly respected defense analysts, are like a fish out of water, when it comes to asymmetric warfare!

I was about to mention that, :-D

Oh Dawn, no need to bother to read it, you can already guess what the contents are going to be.

As Haroon Rashid has rightly said, once it used to be a respectable news paper, but then came all the foreign money and the journalists there suddenly started to write all the bullshyte against Pakistan's interest.

NGOs running by these journalists and newspapers are required to be banned. These are just hogwash. The real thing these NGOs are doing is to bribe other journalists and provide real time intelligence to hostile countries.
 
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The civilians can't keep hiding behind the past forever. The argument you made, while valid historically, has been used (and is being used) as an excuse by our civilian polity to explain away their continual failures. That has to stop.

Failure on the part of civilian authority, after at least making an effort, is understandable and might even be forgivable. Failure without any effort is not.

What civilian authority has been destroyed by the Army over decades will not be recreated in a few months or years. It will take decades to build back, and then only if the Army stops preventing such a resurrection, which it clearly has not.
 
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A comprehensive military operation across the last remaining areas in FATA, still under insurgent control, was always going to reduce the overall incidents of terrorism. However, as many argued at the start of the operation, and still do, the TTP and associated groups will eventually make a comeback, though at a smaller scale than before. That is essentially what we are seeing now - smaller scale hit and run attacks in the cities and in some areas of FATA.

For the short to medium term the situation is going to settle into this 'new normal', likely with the average number of terrorist attacks fluctuating around the lows we have seen of late, with the odd spike here and there. There is both opportunity and risk here - opportunity in that the dispersal of militants and the denial of 'sanctuary' they enjoyed in FATA has tangibly weakened them and their vulnerabilities can be exploited to further isolate and neutralize.

The risk here is that the absence of a concerted and comprehensive effort (and yes, the non-military law enforcement component is key here) to target terrorists outside of FATA will allow terrorists to adapt and strengthen in this new environment. Unfortunately, I don't really see any interest, let alone effort, on the part of the political parties running the 4 main provinces to undertake the necessary institutional reforms.

KPK has introduced some landmark reforms in the police which is one of the most, if not the most important institution when it comes to capitalizing on the gains made by the military. It's not perfect but the ball has started to roll and it is rolling in the right direction.
 
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Only solution to this problem of terrorists returning after area is cleared is development fund. Local administration should have enough funds to tackle mundane small infrastructure issues. If local administration is responsive to day-day problems faced by locals, then only can you win the trust of locals.

This strategy is working in our Maoist areas. Naxals are finding new recruitment of foot soldiers increasingly difficult.
 
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KPK has introduced some landmark reforms in the police which is one of the most, if not the most important institution when it comes to capitalizing on the gains made by the military. It's not perfect but the ball has started to roll and it is rolling in the right direction.
I don't suppose there is a thread discussing the reforms on this forum is there?
 
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