A sinking presidency

[Beskar]

A sinking presidency

Dawn Editorial
Wednesday, 04 Nov, 2009

There is no point in pulling punches or glossing over the latest setback to the Zardari presidency. The fiasco over the NRO has weakened the president’s political position further and at the moment there is no evidence that Mr Zardari and his team of advisers have what it takes to recover lost ground, let alone build a successful presidency from the shambles it has been reduced to.

It is quite extraordinary that in the space of a year and a half, the PPP has gone from facing a parliament in which its candidate for prime minister was elected unanimously to becoming an isolated and increasingly battered party. The blame for this must be laid primarily at the president’s door, for his style of politics has proved to be incredibly tone-deaf and the president appears to be blind to the ebb and flow of politics in the country.

Not quite eight months ago, Mr Zardari finally had to yield on the restoration of the deposed judges in the face of a lawyers’ long march that was turbocharged by the PML-N’s participation. If any lessons were learned from that humiliating experience, if the president understands that politics is the art of the possible, not pressing for the impossible, the handling of the NRO’s abortive passage through parliament has proved otherwise.

Where does the president go from here? It’s difficult to imagine anywhere but down unless the president fundamentally overhauls his approach to politics and governance. After the NRO debacle, every political party will be able to smell blood. The smaller parties inside the governing coalition will be more aware than ever that the PPP, which lacks a majority in parliament, can be bullied into submission. The opposition, meanwhile, will be elated at the president’s continuing proclivity for self-inflicted political wounds that can be readily exploited. Within the PPP, the ‘consensus’ prime minister, Yousuf Raza Gilani, is looking increasingly good in comparison to the president and it doesn’t appear that the prime minister is particularly worried that he may be showing up his party boss.

Given the lay of the political land, the only thing that comes to mind that the president could do to improve his position immediately is the very thing he appears deeply reluctant to do: give up his superior powers vis-à-vis the prime minister and parliament. But smart politics, forget shoring up the transition to democracy, does not appear to be part of Mr Zardari’s agenda. By restoring the judges and scrapping the NRO, the president has shown he can do the right thing, but only after exhausting all other options.

DAWN.COM | Pakistan | A sinking presidency

 

[faisal4pro]

President is doing wt was he supposed to do! i.e. suicide

 

[deathfromabove]

As The Rumor Says….

Although the author always warns before penning down premature rumors that their authenticity can be challenged by any future action of the parties concerned, the funniest things about the rumors is that they always turn out to be true in Pakistan!

As the legend says, “Never trust a politician’s statement until he denies it”, in our part of the world, a hue and cry of “This cannot happen” and “We will not allow this” begins before any big change. Some things are predicted by legends, while others by the rumors, and the rumors being floated these days, good or bad, seem to be very interesting.

To keep check and balance on a government, an Army chief has to pat opposition parties’ backs, and since the day he took charge, General Ashfaq Pervez Kayani appears to have a soft corner for PML(N) – if only as the less evil of the two options. Though he was neutral apparently and never tried to snatch the crown, he played his cards well, else it wasn’t possible for Mian Nawaz Sharif to break the house arrest despite of a heavy deployment of police at his residence on 15th March, 2009 and then stealing the whole show himself while the real “political heroes” of lawyers’ movement Imran Khan and Qazi remained in hiding in Islamabad, waiting for the that revolutionary 16th March which could have come only if there were no General Kayani and his pressures which forced Mr Zardari against his will and interest to restore the judges disposed by Musharraf. That was the best opportunity for Gen Kayani to take over the country but he let it go, and rather convinced the President in favour of the popular demand. Gen Kayani’s role at the night before 16th March cannot be denied, though the rumor says more about that night, something like Mr President ordering the forces to open gunfire at the long march as it enters the suburbs of Islamabad and something like Army Chief declaring sternly that Pakistan Army will not fire at the its own people.

Recently, Chaudhry Nisar, the only politician so far who did not change from his shalwar qameez to suit and tie while meeting Hillary Clinton, and Mian Shehbaz Sharif met Gen Kayani which angered the PPP government to this extent that Qamar-ul-Zaman Kaira had to give this statement that the PML(N) leadership shouldn’t have done so without President’s knowledge. The interesting thing which arose about this story is Chadhry Nisar’s word later in which he declared that PML(N) will not give shoulder to anyone weakening the democracy. The question is, did someone ask for a shoulder? Only Chadhry Nisar can answer, but the rumor says the military is currently giving two options to the some political parties. First is Minus One Formula in which all the political parties will help to minus Mr Zardari from the system, the same that was given at the night between 15 and 16th March in case Mr Pakistani President does not restore the judiciary. Second is Minus All, and the rumor further elaborates that some names including Aitezaz Ahsan are being given for the next President and Prime minister. At the same time, Altaf Hussain of MQM has asked Mr President to resign. The timing of all these events is very interesting, not to mention the report of a “source” from Nawab Shah that Mr Pakistani President is selling all his estate one by one and transferring his assets in foreign banks. Preparation is definitely going on.

Another interesting rumor that is being circulated among the MPAs, MNAs and Nazims of the major political parties is the full-of-panic advice of settling up all their matter as soon as possible because the present government is breathing its last month on Earth, and this advice is being given by none other than their respective political leadership. Rumor also adds that sooner or later, Mr Pakistani President is going to dissolve the assembly, which seems quite irrational to me since this act, as he knows very well, would give him no benefit but loss.

Rumor or not, a change is in the process of development. PML(N) may not give its shoulder to weaken the western-induced democratic system of majority ruling over minority, but someone will. The PPP government is breathing its last and its every attempt to save itself by creating crisis for other institutions, like the one tried for judiciary through the press conference of Justice Abdul Hameed Dogar, is only ending up bringing more shame and weakness for itself, and today the Prime Minister had to give this statement that he would not allow anyone to destabilize democracy. Does that mean someone is trying to do so? Perhaps yes, because the Prime Minister always gets to know about decisions after they have taken place. And the funniest thing about this entire rumor factory is that the military is giving two options, not asking for them.

---------- Post added at 01:05 PM ---------- Previous post was at 01:04 PM ----------

President-Army row over KLB persists

ISLAMABAD: President Asif Ali Zardari has apparently reconciled to the idea that the Kerry-Lugar Bill (KLB) – now an Act after it was signed by US President Obama – may be defeated in parliament, once it is brought back for a vote.

It is expected that the government will not oppose any resolution against the KLB in parliament. President Zardari is mentally ready for accepting another defeat, it is learnt on good authority.

If that happens soon, it will be another defeat for the beleaguered president who now has the choice to remain in the Presidency as another Rafiq Tarar or Fazal Ilahi, or quit and go on with his life.

The president may have avoided a showdown by accepting defeat on the infamous NRO but his differences with the army’s high command on the KLB are still unresolved. He tried his level best in the last session of the National Assembly to create a majority in support of KLB but failed.

Prime Minister Gilani also announced that he will accept Parliament’s decision on the KLB but when the PML-N and PML-Q decided to table a resolution against KLB in both the houses of Parliament, the session was prorogued.

Some in the government pointed out that the Kerry-Lugar Bill had remained under discussion in the media for many weeks, so why did the army expressed concerns over this controversial bill on October 7.

Detailed investigation by this scribe revealed that the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) had informed the federal government about their objections to the KLB in early July 2009. The ISI DG wrote a detailed letter to the prime minister and informed him that the bill had objectionable language about Pakistan Army. He also stated that the main target of the KLB was the nuclear programme of Pakistan and the government should not accept any conditionality targeting the nuclear security of Pakistan.

The prime minister sent a copy of the said letter to the president and another to the Pakistani mission in Washington DC through the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The Pakistani mission in Washington DC gave a detailed response on the objections raised by the ISI DG on August 11, 2009 and assured the government that it will try its best to safeguard national interests.

Next day on August 12, the mission sent an advance copy of the KLB to the Foreign Ministry in Islamabad and the objections raised by the ISI DG were still present in the draft. The army waited for another month. The consolidated text of KLB was sent by the Pakistani mission on September 14, 2009. It repeatedly claimed in its assessments that Ambassador Husain Haqqani had tried his level best to safeguard national interest but not a single objection raised by the ISI DG was removed from the bill till the end of September 2009. The army came out with a press release on the KLB on October 7.

Top US officials have claimed in private conversations with this scribe that Ambassador Haqqani never informed the US Congress or the State Department about the objections of Pakistan Army on the KLB.

On the other hand, Ambassador Haqqani has denied this claim and said that the State Department and the GHQ in Rawalpindi were fully in the picture. He said that COAS General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani met Senator John Kerry personally on February 26, 2009 and the Pakistan Army was aware of the thinking in US Congress about the bill.

US officials have also noticed the absence of Ambassador Haqqani during the recent visit of Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to Pakistan. Prime Minister Yusuf Raza Gilani recently supported Kerry-Lugar Bill through a cabinet decision but after the defeat of NRO, the opposition parties have once again decided to initiate a new debate on KLB in the ongoing session of the National Assembly.

 

[Spring Onion]

A presidency based on a wrong, illegal, unconstitutional accord bound to be stinking and sinking for the betterment of the country.

Gillani could be better than Zardari, if he gets the powers which are meant for a PM constitutionaly

 

[fatman17]

In the name of God, go

Wednesday, November 11, 2009

Roedad Khan

Some leaders sail with the wind until the decisive moment when their conscience and events propel them into the centre of the storm. Altaf Hussain's fateful decision not to support Zardari on the infamous NRO issue was a masterly stroke in the game of politics. Otto von Bismarck famously said that political genius entailed hearing the hoofbeat of history and then rising to catch the galloping horseman by the coattails. This is what Altaf Bhai has done, to the surprise of friends and foes alike.

Altaf Bhai's friendly advice to President Asif Zardari to sacrifice his exalted office for the sake of the country and democracy reminds me of the fateful "Norway Debate” in the House of Commons in May 1940. Britain was at war, facing the full might of Nazi Germany. In the backdrop of the dismal picture of failure and retreat which confronted the nation, L S Amery, MP, delivered the historic speech which led to the resignation of Prime Minister Chamberlain and elevation of Churchill as prime minister. "I cast prudence to the winds," Amery wrote in his diary, "and ended full-out with my Cromwellian injunction to the government… 'You have sat too long here for any good you have been doing. Depart, I say, and let us have done with you. In the name of God, go.' "

"I say solemnly," Lloyd George who followed Amery, declared, "that the prime minister should give an example of sacrifice because there is nothing which can contribute more to victory in this war than that he should sacrifice his Seals of Office." President Lyndon Johnson had won an enormous election victory and proposed civil rights legislations and Great Society. Less than three years later, broken by the Vietnam War, realising the nation no longer trusted him, and unable to appear in public, he announced he would not seek re-election. What is President Zardari going to do?

All presidents fall from their honeymoon highs, but no elected president in history has fallen this low this fast. All presidents are opposed, of course, and many are disliked; but few suffer widespread attacks on their personal integrity or veracity. President Zardari is one of those few. Zardari knows well the man responsible for the trouble he is in. He looks at him everyday while shaving.

Talking about despotic rulers, like himself, Mussolini said just before he faced the firing squad: "Have you ever seen a prudent, calculating dictator, they all become mad, they lose their equilibrium in the clouds, quivering ambitions and obsessions – and it is actually that mad passion which brought them to where they are." Absolute power, unrestrained by law, must make people mad. Power is heady substance. How else can one explain Zardari's erratic behaviour and his massive blunders?

Sometimes, once in a long while, you get a chance to serve your country. Today President Zardari is the Atlas on whose shoulders the state of Pakistan rests! Few people had been offered the opportunity that lay open to Mr Zardari. He blew it. No wonder, the country is gripped by fear and uncertainty. If Zardari remains in command of the ship of state, we will all go down like the Titanic.

At a time when the country is at war, Mr Zardari, the Supreme Commander, spends almost his entire existence in the confines of a bunker – which he seldom leaves these days. Mortally afraid of his own people and the sword of the NRO hanging over his head, he is more concerned about protecting himself and his power rather than protecting the country or the people of Pakistan.

Mr Zardari is so swathed in his inner circle that he has completely lost touch with the people and reality. He wanders around among small knots of persons who agree with him. His blunders are too obvious, his behaviour too erratic, his vision too blurred. He has painted himself into a corner.

A year after he captured the presidency, Zardari seems to have lost his "mandate of heaven." At a time when leadership is desperately needed to cope with matters of vital importance to the very survival of the country, Pakistan is led by a president who lacks both credibility and integrity. What is worse, he seems oblivious to the realities of his awesome responsibilities and is only interested in perpetuating himself.

What is it that people really expected from their president in a national crisis? It is something that the national psyche needs. The people, especially those in the war zone, expect the occupant of the Presidency to share their suffering, to assure those trapped in the crossfire that they will survive; that they will get through it. He has to be a Chief Executive who is in command, who reacts promptly, who alleviates human suffering. Above all, he must inspire confidence and hope. And so, he has to be that larger-than-life figure, which Zardari is not. No president and no prime minister can govern from a bunker.

These are critical days in Pakistan. Isn't it a great tragedy that at a time like this there is a loveless relationship between the rulers and the ruled? There is no steady hand on the tiller of government. The survival of the country, its sovereignty, its stunted democracy, its hard-won independent judiciary, all are on the line. Tragically, in our political life, we prefer to wait until things reach the emergency room. Each man feels what is wrong, and knows what is required to be done, but none has the will or the courage or the energy needed to speak up and say enough is enough. All have lofty ideals, hopes, aspirations, desires, which produce no visible or durable results, like old men's passions ending in impotence.

"Fortune is a fickle courtesan," Napoleon said on the eve of the battle of Borodino. "I have always said so and now I am beginning to experience it." When I watched Zardari a few days ago on TV, he was visibly undergoing a similar experience and looked like the captain of a sinking ship, the wind of defeat in his hair. How fortunes fluctuate! The calendar says Zardari will be around for another four years, but the writing on the wall shows the party is almost over.

For Mr Zardari, the accidental president of Pakistan, the moment of truth has arrived. His presidency is collapsing all around us; the wolf is at the door.

The presidency is more than an honour, it is more than an office. It is a charge to keep. Asif Zardari's sudden ascension to presidency caused panic among the people. Thrown there by accident, he is grotesquely unsuited for his position. Henry Adams once wrote that the essence of leadership in the presidency is "a helm to grasp, a course to steer, a port to seek." President Zardari grasped the helm more then a year ago but the country still doesn't know whether he has an inner compass, or a course to steer or a port to seek. It is now abundantly clear that he is not worthy of the trust placed in him by his people. He carries a serious baggage, dogged for years by charges of corruption until they were abruptly dropped under the NRO, which he tried to get validated through the Parliament but failed. No democrat should come to power through such an array of backroom machinations, deals with Generals or foreign powers. No wonder, too many people reject Zardari's political legitimacy.

The Zardari aura is crumbling. His star is already burning out, but he will stop at nothing to keep his lock on power.



The writer is a former federal secretary. Email: roedad@comsats.net.pk, www.roedadkhan.com

 

[courageneverdies]

Last night I was watching a program of M. Maalik on Geo in which he had called Fed. Minister Dr. (So-Called) Baber Awan and had on phone Shaheedn Sehbai and Dr. Shahid Masood.

It was hot talk both the journalists attacked him and presidency furiously without showing pity or fear. Dr. Sb just said "You ain't givin me time: Let them say what they want to say: They beat by the bush: Presidency is secured: PM is powerful: Worst democracy is better than best dictatorship: PPPP rocks as PPPP rules: We just had 18 months: You can not judge our progress in just 18 months:"

In short he was so confused and was breathing like a spanish bull. He still strongly emphasised that Presidency is strong and we have chain of command, president and PM have coordination which is a good thing.

I will call whatever he said utter nonsense and BS. Presidency has to change its path/style of rule or else it will be what the above refered subject says.

KIT Out

 

[fatman17]

Last step to nowhere

The writer is a freelance columnist and former newspaper editor

Thursday, November 12, 2009

If a referendum were to be ordered, there seems less and less doubt that most people would wish to see President Asif Ali Zardari make his way out of the Presidency.

It is, after all, hard, indeed almost impossible, to keep principle in view when so much has gone amiss. This was the case too when Mian Nawaz Sharif was ousted in October 1999. General Pervez Musharraf was welcomed by many–including those who had opposed dictatorship. Sharif's megalomaniacal focus on concentrating all powers in his own hands, the storming of the Supreme Court, the terrifying attempt to impose Shariah, the absurd "plane hijacking" drama, the tales of rampant corruption and the extrajudicial killings that led even to petty bicycle thieves being shot on the streets meant many celebrated his fall.

They may have been less inclined to do so had they possessed a crystal ball showing what disaster the Musharraf years would bring, as mainstream parties were shoved to the sidelines and extremist forces given space to grow. The bombings we face today are a legacy of Musharraf's nine years in power.

The inept playing of the solid hand of cards he held after his skilful ouster of former President Musharraf in August 2008 means that Zardari has squandered, one by one, the chances that came his way. Nobody can hope to win any game of cards this way–particularly one played in Pakistan, where forces are pitched against democracy, in the first place. With his wife's tragic death, Asif Ali Zardari rode onto the political centre stage amid a giant wave of sympathy.

He could have taken advantage of this to cancel out the past reputation he brought with him and make a new start. Instead, new corruption charges have surfaced, including the latest linked to land acquisition in Islamabad. With Zardari his son's name too stands tarnished, even before he is old enough to run for public office.

The president has surrounded himself with an unsavoury set of individuals who cement the worst suspicions about him. He has consistently failed to deliver on promises and consistently appeared unable to see how this slump in credibility leaves him–and the PPP government–increasingly vulnerable.

To add to this, people face a situation in which the state has almost completely pulled out from their lives. Shortages of flour have been experienced, sugar has at times been impossible to purchase, power vanishes for hours each day, gas load-shedding now lies ahead, inflation remains sky high, children can no longer safely attend schools and crime of almost every kind has increased.

Politicians have made no real attempt to stay in touch with people. Disgust with the government can be found everywhere, and this means that Mr Zardari and his men struggle to find anything akin to support anyway. A presidential ouster would inevitably bring some sense of grievance, notably in Sindh, but it is likely to be minimal even here.

All this acts to dilute some truths. Mr Zardari has made enemies not necessarily because of all this alone, but also because he is seen as being "soft" on India, too pro-US, too eager to curb the military's powers and too friendly to Baloch nationalists. He has handled each of these delicate matters clumsily, and in some cases with an extraordinary lack of finesse or good sense. Stating in public that he would like to see a nuclear-free subcontinent is, after all, not very wise, given the unfortunate realities we live with.

But there is in this a demonstration of how difficult it can be for politicians to veer away from the course chalked out by the establishment. Benazir Bhutto–always a far more capable strategist and leader than her widower--learnt this too during her interrupted tenures in power.

Beyond the issue of Mr Asif Ali Zardari, we must consider what all this will mean for the PPP–today the only party that has nationwide standing. Maps that show the division of votes underscore this. The jostling to claim the legacy of Benazir Bhutto is one indication of the fact that politicians recognise how significant the Bhutto name still is. Zardari, of course, banked on this in his opportunistic takeover of the PPP; his son, with his mother's surname added to his own, bizarrely inherited a political party and now, still more strangely, we have Mian Nawaz Sharif insisting it is he who is indeed the true heir to the Bhutto throne.

In his speech last week in Gilgit, he stressed how in the hours following the assassination of Benazir her party's workers in Rawalpindi pledged loyalty to him. Mr Sharif–a man associated in many minds with the late General Zia-ul-Haq and his reactionary politics–indeed even implied to people in an area where the PPP's popularity is high that he is a follower of Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, taking forward his vision by building Pakistan its atomic bomb.

The skeptical look on the weathered faces of some of his audience, visible on TV cameras, suggest they were perhaps not entirely convinced. The adversity between the PML-N and PPP is, after all, a part of very recent history and a key factor in the democratic disarray we see today.

For this, however, the PPP too must also accept blame. The failures of its own leaders have left room for others to try and commandeer the party. No serious effort was made to halt Mr Zardari in his stride before we descended into our present perilous state.

The party too has failed to keep the people by its side. Leaders such as Makhdoom Amin Fahim, once seen as a possible alternative to Zardari, have given in and fallen in step. They have not even attempted to prove the PPP is a party that can stand on its own feet, and without a Bhutto shoulder to lean on. We need to see now if individuals like Aitzaz Ahsan, emerging according to some forecasts as a key political player for the future, may be able to rise to the challenge.

If they cannot, we face the prospect of witnessing another democratic debacle. With this may come also the splintering of the PPP. Doubts are being voiced as to whether it can remain united in a post-Zardari scenario. The emergence of new factions would of course weaken the party – but it would also damage democracy and once more prove that our country is run from the sinister shadowlands that lie beyond the eyes of people.

Email: kamilahyat@hotmail.com

 

[FlyingEagle]

I remember when the elections for president were held all the members cast their votes and shown to a person sitting on a table. What was that? If I'm not wrong

 

[fatman17]

I remember when the elections for president were held all the members cast their votes and shown to a person sitting on a table. What was that? If I'm not wrong

are you referring to PML-N voting for Zardari, if yes, then at that time Zardari had "convinced" NS that he will "keep" all his promises - now that he has not and the old addage "once bitten twice shy", NS has learned a lesson in politics the hard way.

someone once said that the only person worse than a child molester is a politician - that says it all !!!

 

[FlyingEagle]

But I think its ur right to cast a vote by hiding/ turn the paper. u are not liable to show ur vote to anybody. Nobody can ask u to show ur vote paper.
Correct me if I'm wrong.

 

[fatman17]

Ghosts that won't go away

Islamabad diary

Friday, November 13, 2009

Ayaz Amir

In the field of high, or surreptitious, finance our dear president has been much too successful for his own good. Fortune may have been kind to him and he may have clambered up the greasy pole to occupy the highest office in the land, but what price this glory when the echo of some of his more spectacular achievements just won't go away?

A dozen NROs will not wash the name of Cotecna, the Swiss firm said to have given huge kickbacks for a customs inspection contract during the golden days of Mohtarma's first premiership. The famous Queen's necklace which later figured high in the allegations brought against the ruling couple (it was truly that) was said to have been paid for out of the Cotecna kickbacks.

The cases in Swiss courts which arose out of that affair if taken to their logical conclusion could have spelt serious international trouble for those figuring in it (I am being coy with names because after Ms Bhutto's all too tragic assassination taking her name in connection with these sordid events is not easy). But Pervez Musharraf's domestic necessities arose to the defence of the Cotecna principals. The Swiss cases magically melted away but their dim memory remains, a reminder, if nothing else, of how what could have been a fairy tale -- Ms Bhutto's premiership -- became mired in controversy and scandal.

My telephone number in Islamabad in those distant days was 826611 while the number of the Prime Minister's house was 816611. And since telephone lines then were not what they are now -- Pakistan not having quite entered the digital or optic fibre age -- it was not uncommon for calls to slip from one line to the other. So it was that sometimes to my amusement, at other times to my great annoyance, I used to receive calls meant for the Prime Minister's house.

Once, cross my heart, I got a call from Geneva from a Mr Schlegelmilch (I hope I have got his name right) who wanted to be put through to Mr Zardari. I pretended to be someone associated with Mr Zardari and said that he could tell me whatever he had to say in the fullest confidence. But Mr Schlegelmilch was too smart to fall for this. It later transpired that he was the go-between in the Cotecna affair and received a handsome cut for his pains. (I am not making this up. I wrote about it at the time.)

Part of the mythology to which the political class subscribes in Pakistan is that no sooner is a political government in place than the military establishment and the intelligence agencies start conspiring against it. While true to a great extent, this alone does not account for the fingers pointing at civilian shenanigans. Cotecna and the Queen's necklace were not scandals invented by ISI or Military Intelligence. They were real happenings scripted and performed by those then in power. ISI or MI may have made the most of them. But that's something else. Chinks in your armour don't expect your enemies not to exploit.

True, Mr Zardari then was neither president nor prime minister. But he was the first husband and as Nancy Reagan once said of her time as first lady, being close to someone -- her actual words were a bit different -- gives you unbeatable access. Mr Zardari did not have to hold any position to be a big player, or rather the biggest player, in the realm of high finance. In fact so great was the buzz in those days about his stupendous skill in financial matters that he earned the lasting sobriquet Mr Ten Percent. He can become the pope tomorrow and this tag won't leave him. Like ghosts, some other things too just don't go away.

So it is a bit disingenuous of Mr Farhatullah Babar, the ubiquitous presidential spokesman, to aver that Mr Zardari could have had nothing to do with the submarine affair -- the taking of kickbacks in a contract for the supply of three French Agosta submarines in 1994 -- because he was neither president nor prime minister, nor minister of defence. Adnan Khashogi was the biggest name in Saudi defence deals in the 1980s and 1990s, his kickbacks running into the billions. But he was no minister of defence or civil aviation. He was a high-flying entrepreneur who operated from the shadows, as such men must, making and cutting big-time deals.

Kashogi operated out of Lebanon. Mr Zardari did one better. For the hectic philanthropy which was his speciality, he operated out of the Prime Minister's house. We must hand it to the man for another reason: the boldness of his imagination knew no bounds. For recreation purposes he had horse stables set up in the grounds of the PM's house. No one had done anything of the kind before. There were so many other things Mr Zardari did which no one had done before. In more senses than one, therefore, he remains one of a kind.

The media will sorely miss him when he is no longer there to write about. In fact if the media had a heart -- about which most people will have the gravest doubts -- it would give Mr Zardari a medal for being the most write-able figure that there has been in our history. Musharraf was good copy too, but not as much as Mr Zardari. In the media's hall of fame he deserves an honoured place.

I wrote about the submarine affair too in 1994. The air was rife with rumours about the then naval chief, Admiral Mansur-ul-Haq, and a go-between, Amer Lodhi, being involved in the kickbacks accruing from that contract. Nothing was ever proved but then that's one of the greatest things about our Islamic Republic: nothing ever gets proved and so, happily, no one is ever punished. In this sense, in one form or the other, Pakistan has been living on NROs since its birth. The only difference is that while there have been previous whitewashes none has had as beguiling and innocent a name as the National Reconciliation Ordinance. The artist who thought of the name deserves an award.

I may add that because of the submarine column I wrote, I and the paper in which it was published received a five crore defamation/libel notice from Mr Zardari's lawyer. Thankfully it wasn't pursued beyond that first move.

But returning to Mr Zardari, despite his image problem, he -- counting everything, especially his ascent to the presidency -- has been a lucky man. But as his troubles mount his luck seems to be deserting thin. The general perception of him now is of an increasingly beleaguered figure holed up in the Presidency, his only communication with the outside world through his spokesman, Farhatullah Babar, whose word, alas, engenders disbelief with every passing day. The submarine affair -- resurfacing in the French left-wing newspaper Liberation -- couldn't have come at a more difficult time, because it refreshes public memories of the president's awkward past, when his main claim to fame was being Mr Ten Percent.

The allegation that the terrorist attack on the Karachi Sheraton in 2002 which led to the deaths of 11 French nationals was in retaliation to the non-payment of full kickbacks for the submarine contract I personally find farfetched if not wildly imaginative. Such an attack would have required the resources and the expertise of a full-fledged terrorist syndicate. To attribute it to Mr Zardari, as Liberation seems to do, is to stretch the limits of credulity and give him a more evil look than he deserves. But the kickbacks are a different matter. Allegations about them were widely believed when the contract was being finalised.

But we are in a terrible bind. Here we have all these tales of corruption and it is no cause for comfort when every footprint should be leading -- how is one to put this? -- where it should not lead. But many of us are also prey to the fear that if there are forces out to get the president and somehow they succeed, we will end up with not a purified democracy but, most likely, no democracy at all.

Talk of being between the devil and the deep sea: either Zardari or perdition. The fairies could have dealt us a better hand. But this is the one we have and the one we will have to live with for the time being.

Email: winlust@yahoo.com

 

[fatman17]

If Mr Zardari is held ineligible...

Reality check

Friday, November 13, 2009

Shafqat Mahmood

The probabilities of what lies ahead for President Zardari gather pace as November 28 draws near. This is the cut-off date for parliament to ratify the National Reconciliation Ordinance (NRO) and we know this is not going to happen.

And, only an incurable optimist among the rulers can expect, as Prime Minister Gilani seems to be doing, that the courts would endorse it. Why should they if the parliament has not approved it? This opens up a huge can of worms that could devour some individuals and even shake the system.

The beneficiaries of the NRO are many including President Zardari but he has immunity under Article 248 of the Constitution and they don't. This has led to speculation that people like the Interior Minister, Rehman Malik, will flee from the country by the end of November. Other prominent figures, who can't or will not do this, will have to get busy seeking pre-arrest bail from the courts. This would be a pretty sad spectacle, as it would make our democracy look like a thieves' bazaar.

President Zardari has no fear of prosecution by the revival of NRO cases because of presidential immunity but their becoming active has other implications. The most important being questions regarding his eligibility to be a candidate for the presidential office. It is this issue that has the potential of completely derailing him.

There are reports that applications questioning his eligibility have already been moved before the Supreme Court, or that they will be soon after the cut-off date of November 28. In any event, the matter is likely to come up for judicial interpretation probably in the first week of December.

It is impossible to predict what the apex court will decide but it will, to state the obvious, either rule Mr Zardari fit to be president or ineligible. The exact determination may contain legal calisthenics that you and I may have difficulty understanding, but the end result can only be one of the two; either he is eligible to be president or he is not.

If Mr Zardari is declared eligible, this storm brewing against him will subside. He won't suddenly become the most popular politician in the country but he will survive in office and metaphorically, live to fight another day. If he is declared unfit to be president and removed, it will unleash dynamics that need to be understood.

If such an eventuality does indeed come to pass, what options would Mr Zardari have? Some people speculate that the moment he becomes certain that the courts are going to rule against him, he will ask Mr Gilani to dissolve the assembly and call for a new election.

How this will help him is beyond me. The PPP, according to opinion polls, is unlikely to do well in the next election -- if indeed they are held. The courts have only recently ruled that even by-elections are not possible in places like Lahore and Rawalpindi. How can a general election take place in the country?

This means that if it comes to it, by carrying out Mr Zardari's desire to dissolve the assembly, Mr Gilani would not only be losing his job -- the Constitution states that when elections are called a neutral caretaker government takes office -- he could consign himself and his party to a long wait for the next elections. Why would he do that or why would Mr Zardari make such a demand in the first place?

Those that make this argument think he will seek dissolution to register protest at his being declared unfit to be president and would want to take his party out on the street to start an agitation. This is quite ridiculous. Mr Zardari is not Zulfikar Ali Bhutto or Benazir Bhutto and he knows it. He is also a realist. How would it help if he demolishes the government of his own party?

He won't but just for the sake of argument, even if he does ask such a thing of Mr Gilani, he is likely to get 'no' for an answer. It will be done politely and in the manner of a request, but it will in effect be a 'no'. In this Gilani, will be backed by most of the PPP MNAs. No one wants to go home and fight an election or wait indefinitely for it.

This might create a schism in the PPP ranks but Gilani has nothing to worry about as he will have the support of other groups in parliament, in particularly the large block of PML-N members. This will put his future in the hands of Mian Nawaz Sharif, but they get along fine and Mr Sharif knows that new elections are not possible now so why rock the boat?

If this scenario plays out, not much will change if Mr. Zardari is held ineligible. The parliament will elect a new president and Gilani will continue in office with the help of most other parties in the National Assembly. It will actually start looking like a national government because there is a possibility that PML-N may rejoin the cabinet.

Will Mr Zardari's possible ouster be as simple as that? Some think there will be a reaction in Sindh. Others vehemently argue that he no longer has support in that province. The situation could become a bit volatile if the sitting PPP government in Sindh instigates protest and violence. This will create a precarious situation, not only for the provincial government but also for the federal government. They are supposed to maintain law and order, not become a party to violating it.

If the PPP takes the agitation line in the event of Mr Zardari's removal as president, which I think it won't, it would then be putting the democratic system in jeopardy. This is for the simple reason that governments have to behave responsibly and not become party to disorder. If the Sindh or the federal government take this line, they would in effect be demonstrating against their own selves and this would be untenable. It would invite intervention.

My simple conclusion is that in case the courts decide to hold Mr Asif Ali Zardari unfit for the august office of the President of Pakistan, it would create a stir but nothing extraordinary will happen. After a brief rocky period, the government will steady itself and continue in office.

If indeed it does come to a point that assemblies, wittingly or unwittingly, are dissolved, a caretaker government will take office. Since elections are not possible in the short run due to the turmoil in the country, this government will last for some time. It will have difficulties because there will be little or no public support but it may have more basic competence.

It is also possible that in case a long-term arrangement becomes necessary, some kind of national government may be put in place after taking permission from the superior courts. This is an interesting prospect and more on it next week.

Email: shafqatmd@gmail.com

---------- Post added at 10:58 AM ---------- Previous post was at 10:57 AM ----------

mods/admn pls merge all these zardari threads in the political section

 

[nwmalik]

We as a nation don't think or rather when we do we think from
our heart. We as a nation were blind when we voted we only thought
of BB. We were hypnotized when Mr Z became president.
We keep making same mistakes again and again.
We the unfortunate nation have been given a political coin, one side
PPP and other Nawaz S. Now we want to toss the coin again . The coin flipping will go on until we start thinking.
The punishment for Mr Z and Mr Bilawal Bhutto ( imagine the greed that he does not use his fathers name hoping to rape our nation more after druging us with Bhutto injection) is there should be open televised trial. If guilty all world wealth should be taken including Pakistani passports ( surely they have other more preferred passports).

 

[nwmalik]

Allah give us will , vision and strenght to purge our nation of such people. Who blind us, who mix within us, who behave like Pakistani but are harming us all the time