A 'Realistic' assessment of the PLAAF's capability against India

[shanlung]

Indians totally forgot about Electronic Warfare where China excel in.

So much so that when China turned that on in SCS a few months ago just for a few moments, all the Murican ships and planes there were blinded absolutely and Muricans wailed and moan and screamed how unfair China was to use that.

Murica believed that their enemies must lie quietly on the ground to allow Muricans to kick sand into their face , or if standing up, must stand with legs apart so Muricans can kick the balls real hard. Muricans were mistaken.

India now think they far stronger than Murica. When Murica running behind the 4th Island Chain and Frisco Bay, India want to go charging in where angels fear to tread.

May India do that soon so we all can see flying Indians in lieu of flying Armenians.

 

[nahtanbob]

What is China planning to gain in the war with India ?

If PLAAF puts a great show versus India it will be a feather in the cap. Will it matter against USAF ?
If they put a poor performance it will be embarrassing as hell.

It looks like way too much risk for too little gain

 

[khanmubashir]

People here tend to vastly under-estimate the importance of EW (electronic warfare) capabilities of modern fighters.

Internal Chinese military exerices show team with better EW capabilities can dominate the counterparty easily.

For instance, recent exercise show that J-10c, with its advanced AESA radar (the new gen AESA radar itself has vastly strengthened EW capabilities) basically dominate Su-35 by 8:0.

And of cause J-20 dominate everyone else even if the lens it put on to reduce its stealth characters.

Indians think the modern war is decided by the number of exported version of fighters and weapons toys they have, they treat the war the same way like Iraq, they don't understand how to fight a modern war (well, to be fair, they don't know how to fight an ancient war either, as indicated by their recent melee fight performance).

Thats why I expect a repeat of Gulf war.

Interesting comparison like sadam Iraq India too has been on a shopping spree to buy toys from multiple sources without much consideration of developing in sync ecosystem

 

[Figaro]

What is China planning to gain in the war with India ?

If PLAAF puts a great show versus India it will be a feather in the cap. Will it matter against USAF ?
If they put a poor performance it will be embarrassing as hell.

It looks like way too much risk for too little gain

Doesn't matter to be honest. No one will be impressed by China beating India to a pulp since it is expected. As you mentioned, if progress is somehow slower than expected, then it will actually be bad for the Chinese. Having said this, the ball is really in India's court on this one. The Chinese and Pakistanis are waiting for India to fire the first shot so they can take their gloves off.

 

[Deino]

...

The Numbers Game
The one aspect that is often the starting point for capability assessment is the numerical strength of an Air Force. A recent study puts the likely number of aircraft available to the PLAAF in the Western Theatre Command (WTC) which is of relevance to India at 157. Here’s the detailed breakdown of this strength which has been organised by the PLAAF into five air brigades:

Air Brigade Aircraft Location
109th 16 x J-8F, 16 x J-8H Hotan
110th 24 x JH-7A Ürümqi South (Wulumuqi)
111th 16 x J-11A, 16 x J-11BS, 2 x Su-27UBK Korla and Hotan
112th 32 x J-11M Malan/Uxxatal
16th 16 x J-11, 16 x J-11BS, 2 x Su-27UBK

...

Well, it's IMO always interesting to take a look what such reports say about identified units since most often You can see the value of a certain report on the way they take care of such important details ... so let's check:


Air Brigade Aircraft Location
109th 16 x J-8F, 16 x J-8H Hotan ... by my list at Changji but currently under conversion to J-11B/BS, Hotan is only a FOB
110th 24 x JH-7A Ürümqi South (Wulumuqi) ... that's correct
111th 16 x J-11A, 16 x J-11BS, 2 x Su-27UBK Korla and Hotan ... that's incorrect since there are at best 24 J-11A + 8 Su-27UBK and/or J-11BS
112th 32 x J-11M Malan/Uxxatal ... that's incorrect; first, there is no J-11M and second this unit still uses J-7B
16th 16 x J-11, 16 x J-11BS, 2 x Su-27UBK ... that's incorrect since there are at best 24 J-11A + 8 Su-27UBK and/or J-11BS

As such IMO already enough major mistakes to rate the whole report as BS.

...

You know, this is a fake?

 

[siegecrossbow]

Well, it's IMO always interesting to take a look what such reports say about identified units since most often You can see the value of a certain report on the way they take care of such important details ... so let's check:


Air Brigade Aircraft Location
109th 16 x J-8F, 16 x J-8H Hotan ... by my list at Changji but currently under conversion to J-11B/BS, Hotan is only a FOB
110th 24 x JH-7A Ürümqi South (Wulumuqi) ... that's correct
111th 16 x J-11A, 16 x J-11BS, 2 x Su-27UBK Korla and Hotan ... that's incorrect since there are at best 24 J-11A + 8 Su-27UBK and/or J-11BS
112th 32 x J-11M Malan/Uxxatal ... that's incorrect; first, there is no J-11M and second this unit still uses J-7B
16th 16 x J-11, 16 x J-11BS, 2 x Su-27UBK ... that's incorrect since there are at best 24 J-11A + 8 Su-27UBK and/or J-11BS

As such IMO already enough major mistakes to rate the whole report as BS.


You know, this is a fake?

I think it has been reported that one J-7 Brigade in the Western Military Command has been swapped out for J-16s. Until Galwan the guys out West always got the hand-me down equipment. Times are changing.

 

[Deino]

I think it has been reported that one J-7 Brigade in the Western Military Command has been swapped out for J-16s. Until Galwan the guys out West always got the hand-me down equipment. Times are changing.

Yes, but this is allegedly the 99th. Otherwise I have heard nothing about the 112th.

 

[KaiserX]

This article is written by a 1st grade fool with way to many assumptions. The article assumes the following:

1) That somehow J-11bs and J-16s and J-10s are somehow inferior to IAF Su-30mkis, Mirage 2000, and mig 29s when in reality all the above said Chinese fighters have latest AESA radars and avionics that are decades ahead of the 90s technology employed in the IAF systems. Furthermore the writer fails to take into account force multipliers in the PLAAFs arsenal such as KJ-5000 radars, Satellites, and the extensive jamming capabilities. The whole of IAF has 3 awacs whereby the PLAAF is able to station just as many in the west at all times. Looking at numbers alone is a fools game. PLAAF has 100 top notch 4.5 generations fighters whereby 60% of IAF fleet is 70s tech, 20% 80s tech, and 20% 90s tech. PLAAF does not have to match the inferior IAF fighters in numbers.

2) Writer somehow concludes that the IAF can base 350+ fighters to the LAC against China, which may be true but the PLAAF has a more extensive military infrastructure that they have built. The PLAAF doesnt need to give half of its fleet against India as India has to do against China reason being is because Chinese know the PAF is there and has 500 fighter jets stationed against northern India (Occupid Kashmir/Laddakh) at all times. Even PLAAF contributing 100 fighters to this is a huge boost to the overall capabilities that are on the anti-indian side which was never there before. Sure tensions are high in the eastern pacific but the PLAAF could easily match or even exceed the IAF in total platforms within a few days notice. The distance from the other airbase commands in the east are not that far at all.

3) The writer assumes that the PLAAF will not use Pakistani airbases or facilities and that the recent stationing of PLAAF fighters and ariel refuelers at Skardu is just "Pyschops". Sure in reality the pyschological factor is always there, but both the PLAAF and PAF have gained extensive experience in air excersises and training together. If a conflict where to break out in high likelyhood Pakistan would def aid PLAAF and offer its bases against the IAF.