Dear all,
do you agree that there is a developing change in circumstance. like , one can see that the operation in NWA might never happen. this is due to the following reasons,
1. due to drone attacks, the pak intelligencia is already at a stronger position to negotiate. and they might force a few elements to surrender. although al - saif and ilyas kashmiri will not surrender , but their allies can be broken off with time. the time is with the pak army specially when we are have drone attacks twice a day.even if the alqaeda dont surrender, they can be frozen and can be made impotent
2.although the americans will never leave afghanistan in 2014, but the army and the whole world believe so. that could be the reason that pakistan dont want to ruin its stake in the region by attacking area of haqqanis. although the drones have already attacked haqqanis home a couple of months ago and women from her family were among the dead and injured.
3. the backlash.
the GHQ is perhaps waiting for a pre-emptive strike by the jihadis in NWA before they can finally go for the assault. that strike is not coming...
lets see how the ISI is taking on the negotiations that are happening rite now.
if the north waziristan assault happenns, then there will be strong backlash. there will be definitely another attack on GHQ. every one knows the last attack was planned by
ILYAS KASHMIRI.
here one more thing is important.
Al-Saif, was a military trained commando, and so as ilyas kashmiri. both are extreme combat veterans, both are hard core and both are inside the Al Qaeda core(jason burke term). things could heat up to any level. and thats what i think is stopping pakistan army to take on the north waziristan
4. politics,
general kiyani want the parliamanet to convince people for the assault. i thing either the PM or president have to even adress people for the operation in north waziristan.
also, with the change in political scenario, the goverment is getting week and is definitely unable to take up this task. the nawaz sharif is against the NWA operation , hence , politically it looks unlikely...