The ranking is done on the basis of 12 indicators:
Social Indicators
1. Mounting Demographic Pressures
* Pressures deriving from high population density relative to food supply and other life-sustaining resources
* Pressures deriving from group settlement patterns that affect the freedom to participate in common forms of human and physical activity, including economic productivity, travel, social interaction, religious worship
* Pressures deriving from group settlement patterns and physical settings, including border disputes, ownership or occupancy of land, access to transportation outlets, control of religious or historical sites, and proximity to environmental hazards
* Pressures from skewed population distributions, such as a "youth or age bulge," or from divergent rates of population growth among competing communal groups
2. Massive Movement of Refugees or Internally Displaced Persons creating Complex Humanitarian Emergencies
Forced uprooting of large communities as a result of random or targeted violence and/or repression, causing food shortages, disease, lack of clean water, land competition, and turmoil that can spiral into larger humanitarian and security problems, both within and between countries
3. Legacy of Vengeance-Seeking Group Grievance or Group Paranoia
* History of aggrieved communal groups based on recent or past injustices, which could date back centuries
* Patterns of atrocities committed with impunity against communal groups
* Specific groups singled out by state authorities, or by dominant groups, for persecution or repression
* Institutionalized political exclusion
* Public scapegoating of groups believed to have acquired wealth, status or power as evidenced in the emergence of "hate" radio, pamphleteering and stereotypical or nationalistic political rhetoric
Economic Indicators
5. Uneven Economic Development along Group Lines
* Group-based inequality, or perceived inequality, in education, jobs, and economic status
* Group-based impoverishment as measured by poverty levels, infant mortality rates, education levels
* Rise of communal nationalism based on real or perceived group inequalities
6. Sharp and/or Severe Economic Decline
* A pattern of progressive economic decline of the society as a whole as measured by per capita income, GNP, debt, child mortality rates, poverty levels, business failures, and other economic measures
* Sudden drop in commodity prices, trade revenue, foreign investment or debt payments
* Collapse or devaluation of the national currency
* Extreme social hardship imposed by economic austerity programs
* Growth of hidden economies, including the drug trade, smuggling, and capital flight
* Increase in levels of corruption and illicit transactions among the general populace
* Failure of the state to pay salaries of government employees and armed forces or to meet other financial obligations to its citizens, such as pension payments
Political Indicators
7. Criminalization and/or De legitimization of the State
* Massive and endemic corruption or profiteering by ruling elites
* Resistance of ruling elites to transparency, accountability and political representation
* Widespread loss of popular confidence in state institutions and processes, e.g., widely boycotted or contested elections, mass public demonstrations, sustained civil disobedience, inability of the state to collect taxes, resistance to military conscription, rise of armed insurgencies
* Growth of crime syndicates linked to ruling elites
8. Progressive Deterioration of Public Services
* Disappearance of basic state functions that serve the people, including failure to protect citizens from terrorism and violence and to provide essential services, such as health, education, sanitation, public transportation
* State apparatus narrows to those agencies that serve the ruling elites, such as the security forces, presidential staff, central bank, diplomatic service, customs and collection agencies
9. Suspension or Arbitrary Application of the Rule of Law and Widespread Violation of Human Rights
* Emergence of authoritarian, dictatorial or military rule in which constitutional and democratic institutions and processes are suspended or manipulated
* Outbreak of politically inspired (as opposed to criminal) violence against innocent civilians
* Rising number of political prisoners or dissidents who are denied due process consistent with international norms and practices
* Widespread abuse of legal, political and social rights, including those of individuals, groups or cultural institutions (e.g., harassment of the press, politicization of the judiciary, internal use of military for political ends, public repression of political opponents, religious or cultural persecution)
10. Security Apparatus Operates as a "State Within a State"
* Emergence of elite or praetorian guards that operate with impunity
* Emergence of state-sponsored or state-supported private militias that terrorize political opponents, suspected "enemies," or civilians seen to be sympathetic to the opposition
* Emergence of an "army within an army" that serves the interests of the dominant military or political clique
* Emergence of rival militias, guerilla forces or private armies in an armed struggle or protracted violent campaigns against state security forces
11. Rise of Factionalized Elites
* Fragmentation of ruling elites and state institutions along group lines
* Use of nationalistic political rhetoric by ruling elites, often in terms of communal irredentism, (e.g., a "greater Serbia") or of communal solidarity (e.g., "ethnic cleansing" or "defending the faith")
12. Intervention of Other States or External Political Actors
* Military or Para-military engagement in the internal affairs of the state at risk by outside armies, states, identity groups or entities that affect the internal balance of power or resolution of the conflict
* Intervention by donors, especially if there is a tendency towards over-dependence on foreign aid or peacekeeping missions
Source
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