$25b export to China possible by 2030

[Anubis]

Post reported for profanity.

We got an indian acting as Chinese now, that is low even comparing to Modi bots ! High IQ Chinese been eating bats, lizards, and what not to survive Mao's time. High IQ North Korea is doing wonderful.
All these SE Asian folks got smart in the last few decades !

You are on the ignore list now.


That was uncalled for.

NE India has thrift shops that sells second hand clothes from the US and Korea...they wear those clothes and have now developed this weird 'Asian' (Japanese-Korean) copycat fashion culture...that coupled with Christian influences have created this new generation of NEasterners who can't fit into the subcontinental culture and suffer from Identity crisis...see how he talks about colonialization almost as if he does not consider that his land was also colonialzed by the same people. Its kind of freaky.

 

[Species]

Post reported for profanity.

We got an indian acting as Chinese now, that is low even comparing to Modi bots ! High IQ Chinese been eating bats, lizards, and what not to survive Mao's time. High IQ North Korea is doing wonderful.
All these SE Asian folks got smart in the last few decades !

You are on the ignore list now.


That was uncalled for.

That creature's own tribe, Manipuri, is on the same level as Homo Erectus, still struggling to evolve into proper humans, living in isolation from civilized world and roaming around their villages naked. They even halt the development of railway in their state to remain isolated. lol

The British brought Manipuris as coolies in Sylhet to work in the tea gardens and decades on, they are still confined to that profession while other tribes have advanced to many levels.

 

[Species]

Wise words brother- much respect.

You are right that concerning monthly wages, we should compare apples to apples, however - I'd respectfully argue that Bangladesh has been able to hold down wage levels as labor supply is rather large compared to say Vietnam or even Cambodia (two of our closest wage competitors). But we will not have this advantage forever of course. Recently (2018) Bangladesh minimum wages for apparel manufacture went up to $95 a month, I reckon Vietnam's is higher, but by how much I do not know.

I think it's not wage but productivity we need to be concerned about. For whatever reasons, productivity of East Asian workers is generally quite higher than the rest of the world and that's why despite higher wages, Vietnam and China can still compete with Bangladesh.

We will feel the heat more after the end of the tariff benefits. The only way to escape from this is automation and but we will have to deal with huge unemployment among low skilled workers, and with that, rising income inequality.

India's failure in manufacturing serves a lesson for us. We need to identify where our comparative advantage lies and train those workers to divert into those industries. We do have a large domestic market which is a boon for the diversification of our economy.

 

[Destranator]

I think it's not wage but productivity we need to be concerned about. For whatever reasons, productivity of East Asian workers is generally quite higher than the rest of the world and that's why despite higher wages, Vietnam and China can still compete with Bangladesh.

We will feel the heat more after the end of the tariff benefits. The only way to escape from this is automation and but we will have to deal with huge unemployment among low skilled workers, and with that, rising income inequality.

India's failure in manufacturing serves a lesson for us. We need to identify where our comparative advantage lies and train those workers to divert into those industries. We do have a large domestic market which is a boon for the diversification of our economy.

The problem is high productivity requires automation which will lead to unemployment in BD. We don't have enough land in Bangladesh to accommodate enough capital intensive factories to employ 100 million adults.
We have to rely on low productivity, labour intensive production methods for the foreseeable future.
Should have started using condoms 50 years ago.

So what is the solution?
Invest in technical and English language education to create tens of millions of skilled workers who can both man capital intensive industries locally as well as migrate overseas to send back tens of thousands of dollars in remittance each year and bring back expertise.

 

[Species]

The problem is high productivity requires automation which will lead to unemployment in BD. We don't have enough land in Bangladesh to accommodate enough capital intensive factories to employ 100 million adults.
We have to rely on low productivity, labour intensive production methods for the foreseeable future.
Should have started using condoms 50 years ago.

We basically need a combination of different policies. The concept of a land bank could be implemented where areas would be reserved for specific industries. The SEZ concept we have is close to that but not entirely the same. We do need to have some capital intensive industries, the revenues from which could stimulate the consumption of different service industries.

So what is the solution?
Invest in technical and English language education to create tens of millions of skilled workers who can both man capital intensive industries locally as well as migrate overseas to send back tens of thousands of dollars in remittance each year and bring back expertise.

Spot on. Also, the ICT sector where English language is a key. This is one area where offshoring is likely to continue whereas exports of some other industries could take a hit due to automation.

We also need to look towards some of the underdeveloped service industries, tourism for example.

 

[Destranator]

We basically need a combination of different policies. The concept of a land bank could be implemented where areas would be reserved for specific industries. The SEZ concept we have is close to that but not entirely the same. We do need to have some capital intensive industries, the revenues from which could stimulate the consumption of different service industries.



Spot on. Also, the ICT sector where English language is a key. This is one area where offshoring is likely to continue whereas exports of some other industries could take a hit due to automation.

We also need to look towards some of the underdeveloped service industries, tourism for example.

Agreed. Ultimately, Bangladesh would have to switch to mostly capital intensive work in the long term if it wants to become a high income nation (~USD 50K/capita in today's dollars) but the transition would have to be slow for excess labour to transition to the service industries. You did mention ICT and tourism.
On the topic of tourism, we should invest heavily in hospitality training and security. Wealthy foreigners should be able to afford world class hospitality while being protected by highly trained private security.

We could employ hundreds of thousands of security guards to protect establishments in our massive sea beach and other tourist spots around the country. The sense of luxury and security will bring tourists in droves. We can eventually build massive business conference centres which would attract wealthy business tourists and employ tens of thousands of hospitality workers.

 

[Bilal9]

The problem is high productivity requires automation which will lead to unemployment in BD. We don't have enough land in Bangladesh to accommodate enough capital intensive factories to employ 100 million adults.
We have to rely on low productivity, labour intensive production methods for the foreseeable future.
Should have started using condoms 50 years ago.

So what is the solution?
Invest in technical and English language education to create tens of millions of skilled workers who can both man capital intensive industries locally as well as migrate overseas to send back tens of thousands of dollars in remittance each year and bring back expertise.

According to current population projections, Bangladesh’s population will reach its peak in 2053 with a population of 192.78 million. Then it starts to decline steeply. By 2084 - population should be back to current levels and by 2100 it will be quite a bit lower at 152 Million.

Bangladesh Population 2024 (Live)

worldpopulationreview.com

I do not see moderate rate of population growth (becoming stable slightly below TFR level of two babies per woman, slightly around replacement rate) to be a problem. A country needs demographic dividend to find workers to 'man' (or 'woman') the industries it invests in. But as you said, these people need to be well trained with excellent skills to add value,

Please see following link discussing demographic dividend in Bangladesh case. TFR trend is in Page 14.

https://www.bea-bd.org/site/images/pdf/40.pdf

 

[Destranator]

According to current population projections, Bangladesh’s population will reach its peak in 2053 with a population of 192.78 million. Then it starts to decline steeply. By 2084 - population should be back to current levels and by 2100 it will be quite a bit lower at 152 Million.

Bangladesh Population 2024 (Live)

worldpopulationreview.com

I do not see moderate rate of population growth (becoming stable slightly below TFR level of two babies per woman, slightly around replacement rate) to be a problem. A country needs demographic dividend to find workers to 'man' (or 'woman') the industries it invests in. But as you said, these people need to be well trained with excellent skills to add value,

Please see following link discussing demographic dividend in Bangladesh case. TFR trend is in Page 14.

https://www.bea-bd.org/site/images/pdf/40.pdf

I am aware of these studies but even 150 million is too many people to provide high standard of living for.
Of the 150 million, we would need at least 70 million to live overseas at any given time. This is why I strongly emphaise on setting up at least one internationally certified technical trade and English language training institute in each upazilla by 2030 to enable mass permanent emigration as well as attract high tech investments.
If Bangladeshis can create high income diasporas worldwide, we can rival India and China in global influence.

 

[UKBengali]

No country ever developed in one year. Do you think America became rich only by an effort of one year? America was also an agricultural society and exported volumes of farm goods and silk to Europe once upon a time.

Korea started developing after Japan introduced modern factories and started building infrastructure there after it occupied the whole Peninsula in 1905. Many many things happened afterward and by deed of their personal/mnational sacrifice, they have gradually grown to this level.

So, what is your point? Why do you think any country developed in a day? Now, tell us what our Golden Bangladesh is doing. Where are the mills and factories that produce wealth?

Exactly my point that BD started from a lower base in 1971 than Korea did in 1954 after the Korean war. Yes Pakistan did build a few things between 1947-1971 but a lot got destroyed during the 1971 civil war and then stolen by the Indian Army back to India when they left.

You do contribute to this forum in many ways but there is too much negativity as regards BD and too many expectations from a country that comes from S Asia. Compare BD to both Pakistan and India and it is not doing too bad when compared to either.

BD has certain geopolitical issues with both India and even with Myanmar that has partly held it back.

Last decade it even sent proposals to Myanmar to fund the building of hydroelectric dams and setting up Arakhan as the "bread basket" of BD. Myanmar flatly refused for their own reasons and this would have been a win-win for both BD and Myanmar. BD would have got easy and cheap sources of electricity and food and Myanmar would have gotten billions of US dollars in revenue to build up its economy that it desperately needs.

BD does have faults, with the primary one previously being the every 5 year cycle between BNP-AL from the early 1990s to end of 2000s but at least since 2009 there has been a little more development.

We need to be patient as a lot of things could happen this decade if the long-term AL plans come to fruition in terms of infrastructure, diversifying exports and building up the 100 SEZs. Just shouting on PDF and complaining 24/7 does not help anyone.

 

[bluesky]

Kia K360

You are wrong in uploading a bad picture above. Our PDF brats want BD to build EVs. It is because producing cars with the gasoline engine is beyond our esteem. After all, we are an honorable group of people!!

Japan's now-famous Honda Motors was basically a producer of two-wheel motorcycles. It started its car venture with small 360 cc engines.

Honda N360 was last produced in probably 1970. I have heard Japanese ridiculing this car by saying its engine would suddenly stop. Honda did not fail, competed against Toyota and Nissan and became quite a reliable producer of cars. It has no truck/ Bus division, though.

N360 of Honda Motors (360 cc petrol)

I think, Mitsubishi will set up an assembly plant in BD if requested by high level people. Korea did this through probably a jt. venture and then they improved the look and quality by themselves.

As far as I understand, Mitsubishi is supplying them the engines made in Japan and other vital parts. One of our companies can do the same. But, I doubt it because people are not serious and they want just quick money.

 

[Bilal9]

You are wrong in uploading a bad picture above. Our PDF brats want BD to build EVs. It is because producing cars with the gasoline engine is beyond our esteem. After all, we are honorable people!!

Japan's now-famous Honda Motors was basically a producer of two-wheel motorcycles. It started its car venture with small 360 cc engines.

Honda N360 was last produced in probably 1970. I have heard Japanese ridiculing this car by saying its engine would suddenly stop. Honda did not fail, competed against Toyota and Nissan and became a quite a reliably producer of cars. It has no truck/ Bus division.

View attachment 753270
N360 of Honda Motors (360 cc petrol)

I think, Mitsubishi will set up an assembly plant in BD if requested by high level people. Korea did this through probably a jt. venture and then they improved the look and quality by themselves.

As far as I understand, Mitsubishi is supplying them the engines made in Japan and other vital parts. One of our companies can do the same. But, I doubt it because people are not serious and they want just quick money.

You are correct.

We need to assemble smaller inexpensive low tech cars first, popularize them locally for volume sales, then start exporting them.

We need to be practical, learn to crawl first before attempting to walk or even run.

But quite a number of car assemblers have started assembly (by last count at least half a dozen large ones, So the future is not entirely bleak and hopeless.

For taxation reasons (300% to 800%) car ownership in Bangladesh is very low, even lower than India per capita. This is unnatural and needs to be corrected by lowering taxes.

 

[Paul2]

You are correct.

We need to assemble smaller inexpensive low tech cars first, popularize them locally for volume sales, then start exporting them.

We need to be practical, learn to crawl first before attempting to walk or even run.

But quite a number of car assemblers have started assembly (by last count at least half a dozen large ones, So the future is not entirely bleak and hopeless.

For taxation reasons (300% to 800%) car ownership in Bangladesh is very low, even lower than India per capita. This is unnatural and needs to be corrected by lowering taxes.

I believe it's the same thing as Pakistan, nobody buys cheap cars, especially bachelors.

Anybody needing a "cheap car" for personal/business use are already serviced by motorcycles, and scooters.

Rickshaws/chingchis/taxis service the rest.

And anybody with a family really needing a car, but not being able to afford yet, will unlikely be able, or wanting to buy even a cheapest one.

 

[Bilal9]

I believe it's the same thing as Pakistan, nobody buys cheap cars, especially bachelors.

Anybody needing a "cheap car" for personal/business use are already serviced by motorcycles, and scooters.

Rickshaws/chingchis/taxis service the rest.

And anybody with a family really needing a car, but not being able to afford yet, will unlikely be able, or wanting to buy even a cheapest one.

Well by cheap, I mean Toyota Corolla/Yaris and Mitsubishi Lancer/Mirage latest generation models.

These are the minimum sizes people will buy in Bangladesh anyway (US definition of subcompacts whether in Sedan or SUV form, in Bangladesh these are minimum size family cars).

PHP Automobiles in Bangladesh has been assembling Malaysian Proton Preve, which is similar to Mitsubishi Mirage and uses similar parts. It is popular locally as a new car (along with a half dozen other Proton minivans and SUVs) - most of the market used to buy/use JDM (ex-Japan Market) reconditioned vehicles, but govt. took a decision to phase these out last year in favor of encouraging more local assembly and manufacture of new vehicles,

Reconditioned car imports to be phased out as govt looks to ramp up local assembly

The government plans to phase out the import of reconditioned cars over the next five years in a bid to encourage investments in the assembly and manufacture of motor vehicles within Bangladesh.

www.thedailystar.net

Bangladeshis are not fond of 800 cc Suzuki Alto type cars. Same in Pakistan I am guessing. Too small.

Indians however are.

 

[UKBengali]

I believe it's the same thing as Pakistan, nobody buys cheap cars, especially bachelors.

Anybody needing a "cheap car" for personal/business use are already serviced by motorcycles, and scooters.

Rickshaws/chingchis/taxis service the rest.

And anybody with a family really needing a car, but not being able to afford yet, will unlikely be able, or wanting to buy even a cheapest one.

Tata Nano was the most famous flop when the Indians tried this over a decade ago.

 

[Bilal9]

Tata Nano was the most famous flop when the Indians tried this over a decade ago.

Indians have typically grossly miscalculated when they compare and contrast Bangladeshi consumer tastes with that of India.

Indians of current "super power" generation grew up riding Ambassadors, 800 cc Marutis (if that - mostly they were riding auto rickshaws) and watching two hours of Doordarshan a day. They just want to put it behind them.