2050 Predictions for India, Sri Lanka, China and the West by the Economist

[CHD]

3000% would be thirty times for India, as compared to ten times (1000%) for China. But remember that India is growing from a lower base so higher growth rates are expected.



Actually, The IMF predictions for Sri Lanka have been correct to within 5% error for the last 10 years in a row. And they predicted out to about a decade in the future.

They have a lot of historical data to base models off.

Srilanka is a small,stable and with no external threats country so you can predict easily as there are not any significant changing variables.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

You cant predict anything beyond 3 years!

We can't even predict things that will happen tomorrow, otherwise it would be easy to become a trillionaire on the stock markets.

 

[NGV-H]

We can't even predict things that will happen tomorrow, otherwise it would be easy to become a trillionaire on the stock markets.

Anyone can make predictions; but predictions are not prophecies. They're basically educated guesses based on trends and historical data. The Economist Intelligence Unit is generally well-reputed so it's always worth listening to what they have to say.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

Anyone can make predictions; but predictions are not prophecies. They're basically educated guesses based on trends and historical data. The Economist Intelligence Unit is generally well-reputed so it's always worth listening to what they have to say.

Aren't they the same ones who predicted that China would only surpass Japan's nominal GDP by 2020?

 

[arif hamza]

congrats to our chinese and sri lankan brothers

 

[unbiasedopinion]

How does it grow by 3000 TIMES? Because you said so? That's a crazy prediction without having a Statistical model anywhere that I've seen....care to provide some facts and proofs? Remember, these are estimated. I can pay John Doe to write about my economic forecast to be in the top 30 countries (if I was a country) and had growth potential. How it actually works out, it may be very different than the anticipation. But the general rule of thumb is that the Chinese and the Indians will claim 2 top spots. US will be a third one, Pakistan will be the top 15th economy, and the rest. Here's a good comprehensive article. I thin the Western sources deflate the Chinese potential now a days for obvious reasons, but we'll see what comes in the future:

China, India To Lead World By 2050, Says PwC | The Diplomat

Seems you are always high when ever there is a discussion involving India which does not include Pakistan. First of all this discussion is about China, India, Sri Lanka etc or majorly top 10 economic power by 2050...Not about top 15 or 20..So stay within the limit of the topic. No need to drag your country Pakistan into it.
Second it is always good to read the comments from beginning to understand the context of the comments. I have merely based my calculation on the number provided in the first post..
Thirdly read the comments carefully before vomitting yourself where none is required, I said %age not the times. Do you know the difference between the two?

 

[Gibbs]

35 year predictions are useless,you cannot predict more than 5 years in advance with reasonable accuracy

Exactly.. Cant rely on such predictions.. With the global economy being so fluid, Predictions on 5 year periods is more credible

 

[Azizam]

I doubt it considering the current conditions of the country. It is a tough objective to even teach 10,000 USD GDP per capita.

 

[Mr.Nair]

Source: http://pages.eiu.com/rs/783-XMC-194/images/Long-termMacroeconomicForecasts_KeyTrends.pdf



Key points:

• China, India and the US in 2050 individually will be larger in GDP than the next 5 countries combined.

• The Chinese economy will be ten times its current size. Per capita GDP in China will be half of the United States', which is very impressive for a population over a billion.

• India will have a GDP per capita worth 24% of the US per capita GDP, which is a huge leap

.

• Sri Lanka is predicted to have a GDP per capita of $65,910 (half Germany's). This is not extremely rich in 2050, but rich enough to be considered an advanced economy.

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@RiazHaq @Areesh @Zarvan

Your thought please...

 

[ito]

How does it grow by 3000 TIMES? Because you said so? That's a crazy prediction without having a Statistical model anywhere that I've seen....care to provide some facts and proofs? Remember, these are estimated. I can pay John Doe to write about my economic forecast to be in the top 30 countries (if I was a country) and had growth potential. How it actually works out, it may be very different than the anticipation. But the general rule of thumb is that the Chinese and the Indians will claim 2 top spots. US will be a third one, Pakistan will be the top 15th economy, and the rest. Here's a good comprehensive article. I thin the Western sources deflate the Chinese potential now a days for obvious reasons, but we'll see what comes in the future:

China, India To Lead World By 2050, Says PwC | The Diplomat

It is not 3000 times but 3000% meaning 30 times the present size.

 

[samv]

I had to burst out laughing when I saw the prediction for Sri Lanka.

There is no way in hell Sri Lanka is going to reach this with the current government in power. The next 5 years for Sri Lanka is going to be this:

- political infighting and revenge taking
- no economic plan, low growth for years on end
- very little foreign investment
- the Colombo elite will be happy because their preferred party is in power, don't give two hoots about the rural majority.
- no investment in infrastructure, the infrastructure already standing will deteriorate
- dirty cities and streets

the list just goes on.

 

[ito]

On topic...it would be good to know what will be GDP by PPP by 2050..I am sure by PPP, India and China will be of same size.

 

[Godman]

I had to burst out laughing when I saw the prediction for Sri Lanka.

There is no way in hell Sri Lanka is going to reach this with the current government in power. The next 5 years for Sri Lanka is going to be this:

- political infighting and revenge taking
- no economic plan, low growth for years on end
- very little foreign investment
- the Colombo elite will be happy because their preferred party is in power, don't give two hoots about the rural majority.
- no investment in infrastructure, the infrastructure already standing will deteriorate
- dirty cities and streets

the list just goes on.

The poor guy can't take Rajapaksa's defeat and has gone insane

 

[Sam.]

It is not 3000 times but 3000% meaning 30 times the present size.

why bother let him bash India non stop like it matter

The poor guy can't take Rajapaksa's defeat and has gone insane

I think he was insane even before that.

 

[Yaduveer]

35 year predictions are useless,you cannot predict more than 5 years in advance with reasonable accuracy

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