2050 Predictions for India, Sri Lanka, China and the West by the Economist

[samv]

The poor guy can't take Rajapaksa's defeat and has gone insane

Says Ranil's boot licker

For the whole of 2015 so far:

- no proper investments, still waiting for a little tyre factory as claimed by the prime minister
- many previous investment projects on hold
- Prime minister actually chases away foreign investment and screams at investors in public
- no jobs created, only jobs lost through stalling of projects
- dirty streets, certainly much dirtier than before
- MASSIVE SUBSIDIES FOR FOOD AS A VOTE BUYING EXERCISE
- MASSIVE PAY RISES FOR STATE SECTOR EMPLOYEES AS A VOTE BUYING EXERCISE
- A SEPARATIST LEADER MADE THE LEADER OF THE OPPOSITION

And to top it all off, a government that will be a bereaucratic nightmare.

Sri Lanka is well and truly f**ked for the next 5 years

 

[aakash_2410]

Call me a pessimistic! But, I'd consider Indian growth story or even Chinese for that matter a success when no Indian or Chinese kid goes to sleep with empty stomach! :/

 

[Viper0011.]

It is not 3000 times but 3000% meaning 30 times the present size.

Main part of my question was, how did you come up with this "astonishing" number of growth. The GDP and Economy grow at 5-7% percent for very high growth markets. That happens for about 2-3 decades and the growth starts to slow down. Unlike the US, India and China don't have the industrial and consumer base setup internally yet. And thus the 5-7%. But feeding such a large population means your GDP will start to have limitations in about 1-2 more decades, just like China has today. So even if we take an average of 5% growth (which is considered higher growth areas if you are above 5), over the next 35 years, 5*35 = 175% increase (quarter less than doubling the size). I can still stretch the numbers out and get to doubling the size. But three times won't happen. The world isn't the same like the 80's and the 90's. If today was 1990 and India was already where it is today as of 1990, I'd give you a 2.5 size expansion forecast. But the financial markets melt down and many other things have regulated almost every other industry that used to allow consumer and the builder, to freely move around and build wealth, which in turn runs the economy of a system.

I know TODAY that in Kernataka and Goa, there are many housing units that are available but not being purchased, like 1000 sqft Apartments inside the city built for people working in the city and all. Similarly, outside the city, bigger houses are available too and in quantity (please don't silly question me on this post as I was there last month).

Not yet on the same level as the Chinese, where they've built ghost cities, but in about a decade, you'll start to see a slow down (market correction). That happened in the US, in Russia, in Japan and is currently happening in China and everywhere else, India isn't an exception.

Note: this is a very serious subject and writing on issues like these, requires me to burn my time and do many calculations before I write stuff on here. My request, don't derail the topic. If you don't like what I wrote, sorry. No need to silly respond as I'll call Mods right away. Once in a while, a healthy debate should take place on here too.

 

[coffee_cup]

Source: http://pages.eiu.com/rs/783-XMC-194/images/Long-termMacroeconomicForecasts_KeyTrends.pdf



Key points:

• China, India and the US in 2050 individually will be larger in GDP than the next 5 countries combined.

• The Chinese economy will be ten times its current size. Per capita GDP in China will be half of the United States', which is very impressive for a population over a billion.

• India will have a GDP per capita worth 24% of the US per capita GDP, which is a huge leap

.

• Sri Lanka is predicted to have a GDP per capita of $65,910 (half Germany's). This is not extremely rich in 2050, but rich enough to be considered an advanced economy.

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Big respect for Sri Lanka, it has weatherd decades long Indian sponsored terrorism very well.

Pakistan has also started to show progress in defeating Indian cross-border terrorism, so I think we'll do just fine in the coming years.

 

[ito]

Main part of my question was, how did you come up with this "astonishing" number of growth. The GDP and Economy grow at 5-7% percent for very high growth markets. That happens for about 2-3 decades and the growth starts to slow down. Unlike the US, India and China don't have the industrial and consumer base setup internally yet. And thus the 5-7%. But feeding such a large population means your GDP will start to have limitations in about 1-2 more decades, just like China has today. So even if we take an average of 5% growth (which is considered higher growth areas if you are above 5), over the next 35 years, 5*35 = 175% increase (quarter less than doubling the size). I can still stretch the numbers out and get to doubling the size. But three times won't happen. The world isn't the same like the 80's and the 90's. If today was 1990 and India was already where it is today as of 1990, I'd give you a 2.5 size expansion forecast. But the financial markets melt down and many other things have regulated almost every other industry that used to allow consumer and the builder, to freely move around and build wealth, which in turn runs the economy of a system.

I know TODAY that in Kernataka and Goa, there are many housing units that are available but not being purchased, like 1000 sqft Apartments inside the city built for people working in the city and all. Similarly, outside the city, bigger houses are available too and in quantity (please don't silly question me on this post as I was there last month).

Not yet on the same level as the Chinese, where they've built ghost cities, but in about a decade, you'll start to see a slow down (market correction). That happened in the US, in Russia, in Japan and is currently happening in China and everywhere else, India isn't an exception.

Note: this is a very serious subject and writing on issues like these, requires me to burn my time and do many calculations before I write stuff on here. My request, don't derail the topic. If you don't like what I wrote, sorry. No need to silly respond as I'll call Mods right away. Once in a while, a healthy debate should take place on here too.

If you grow by 5% for the next 35 years, you will not be 175% of your present size but 552% of your present size ((1+5%) to the power of 35)

And the GDP figures are quoted nominal (that include inflation) while GDP growth rates are quoted in real. Hence people confuse. While forecasting GDP of a country you add forecasted real growth rates with forecasted inflation rates to get future GDP

Assuming India will grow by 5% in real terms for next 35 years and on an average has a future inflation rate say 5.5.%. So the size of the economy 35 years hence relative to its present size will be (1+10.5%) to the power of 35...that equals some 3000%

 

[Viper0011.]

If you grow by 5% for the next 35 years, you will not be 175% of your present size but 552% of your present size ((1+5%) to the power of 35)

And the GDP figures are quoted nominal (that include inflation) while GDP growth rates are quoted in real. Hence people confuse. While forecasting GDP of a country you add forecasted real growth rates with forecasted inflation rates to get future GDP

Assuming India will grow by 5% in real terms for next 35 years and on an average has a future inflation rate say 5.5.%. So the size of the economy 35 years hence relative to its present size will be (1+10.5%) to the power of 35...that equals some 3000%

Precisely, the issue, you guys get too focused on arithmetical equations, this is a prediction and not a fact......Mathematical calculations are facts. Anyway, what I forgot to give you was a "constant" in terms of the Indian economy's size as of today. But irrespective of this, the point was that doubling the economy may be possible. But tripling it won't happen in 35 years.

 

[ito]

Precisely, the issue, you guys get too focused on arithmetical equations, this is a prediction and not a fact......Mathematical calculations are facts. Anyway, what I forgot to give you was a "constant" in terms of the Indian economy's size as of today. But irrespective of this, the point was that doubling the economy may be possible. But tripling it won't happen in 35 years.

Forecasting is math...though not very complex.

In the last 15 years Indian economy became 5 time its 2001 size. I think it is perfectly alright for Indian economy be 30 times its present size in next 35 years.

 

[Luca1]

Anyone can make predictions; but predictions are not prophecies. They're basically educated guesses based on trends and historical data. The Economist Intelligence Unit is generally well-reputed so it's always worth listening to what they have to say.

And Indian predictions are not based on existing trends. But by manipulation of numbers to fool investors. I would not invest in India until I know when the bottom will fall off so I can sell right beforehand.

Forecasting is math...though not very complex.

In the last 15 years Indian economy became 5 time its 2001 size. I think it is perfectly alright for Indian economy be 30 times its present size in next 35 years.

India can do that withVedic math.

 

[gslv mk3]

And Indian predictions are not based on existing trends

These aren't Indian predictions,genius !!

 

[Luca1]

These aren't Indian predictions,genius !!

You are correct,

It's the prediction of Indian economy.

 

[ito]

These aren't Indian predictions,genius !!

He is a retarded...leave him.

 

[Godman]

India has been getting lots of FDI and its industrial and IT sectors have boomed but India did slightly fall behind its target on GDP growth. China is facing some economic troubles but they will grow as well

Pakistan's future depends on how quickly they get rid of the terrorist ,corruption and crime problems and bring political stability. Pakistan has lots of potential but the reasons I mentioned keep dragging them back

 

[Roybot]

So even if we take an average of 5% growth (which is considered higher growth areas if you are above 5), over the next 35 years, 5*35 = 175% increase (quarter less than doubling the size).

Seriously? You just lost all your credibility.

 

[MilSpec]

Precisely, the issue, you guys get too focused on arithmetical equations, this is a prediction and not a fact......Mathematical calculations are facts. Anyway, what I forgot to give you was a "constant" in terms of the Indian economy's size as of today. But irrespective of this, the point was that doubling the economy may be possible. But tripling it won't happen in 35 years.

@Viper0011.
Interesting coming from same member who predicts Pakistan will Octa it's economy in 12 years,from 250 billion to 2 trillion, but a modest triple in 35 years (compared to his prediction of 8 times growth) seems outrageous...
Hypocrisy, your name be thou....

 

[Skywalker]

Future for SL and India looks bright, better than our warmongers on the west.

Typical attitude by a filthy Indian blaming everythingon Pakistan, we will see what happens in 2050 if stay alive.