I repeat: the real crisis is not in power generation, it is in distributing it and then collecting the money owed for supplying it.
Let's do simple maths, I agree with you that the money collection and the distribution is an issue. But its a much smaller issue and these two are separate in nature....ENTIRELY. I know this situation in and out, I don't open my mouth about stuff that I don't have an entire command over. One of the largest Engineering and Infrastructure firms in Pakistan takes advise from people like myself so instead of playing stubborn, sometimes you have to listen also.
Here's what I want you to tell me, as of last year, the DEMAND of electricity was around 17,500 MGW. The production (even AFTER ALL IPP's got paid) was 11,500+ MGW Peak. So by "enhancing the money collection and distribution".....how do you over come the 6000 MGW gap? Will collecting money on time will SOMEHOW run the plans more than 24 hours a day? The plants can NOT produce jack over 12K max......what's never there, can NOT be produced by more money, oil or "distribution". These are issues but separate from the power production.
Now what happens is (to address your issue), when IPP's don't have the money given on time, they can't pay their people and buy Thermal fuel and due to that, the production FURTHER reduces from peak output (Thermal super expensive, thanks to leaders from Zia onwards, and specifically Musharraf to allow more of this knowing this was the utmost expensive option for a poor country).
In the next five years as you hit the economic boom with the Silk Road, Gawader, the educational, medical, infrastructure and textile foot print expanding, you'll need about 5000 MGW more. That now takes your needs from current (17,500 MGW) to roughly 22,500 MGW. So there are all these projects in place to be able to produce about 25,000 by 2022.
The power outages will be reduced to 10% of what it is right now in the next 36 months gradually as many of these projects will start to come online. By 2018, power outages will be history and by 2022, you'll be surplus. ALL this....if the current democratic system continues to work and many of you don't want the country and its poor people to progress. That's why the silly and violent protests!
The last time I looked at the issue in detail, I had confirmed that the addition in circular debt was because of high cost of production which was the #1 cause. Distribution problems / theft of electricity was #2 reason. Therefore the cheaper production of electricity should be the first priority, and tackling line losses should be a close second.
There are two issues:
1) To produce enough electricity per the demand (which is why you have these projects in place).
2) Until these projects come online (Hydro and Nuclear and all, cheaper options), reduce line losses to maximize payments so the current gap doesn't expand due to non payment and distribution.
3) Once new project cut down the power outages down to 10% of what it is right now (by 2018), then each new Hydro, Solar and Nuclear energy project coming online, will need to shut down an existing IPP based system so the cheaper alternative can be used. The shut down plant will then go through conversion from Thermal to Coal and then they'll come online, adding surplus by 2022.
The government has laid out a very well thought out strategy. They just need to continue to work and finish these projects without interruption. By the end of next year, you'll start to see a big reduction in the power outages as some of these projects will start to come online by the end of next year. By the end of 2016, you'll have an average of 1-2 hours of power outage across the entire country, and by 2018, you'll make the power outages a part of the history. By 2022.....you'll be in surplus with majority of your electric system running on Hydro, Nuclear and some Solar. This stuff should've happened in like 1980's.
