My analysis:
Albert Einstein said that the World War 4 will be fought with sticks and stones. And then I read news that recently Indians are getting their soldiers killed in hand to hand combat in some mountains lol. Good to see modern soldiers practicing for the future.
On a serious note, I don't expect any escalation. Their will only be POLITICAL changes in the region. The losing side will be only Modi and not Indian nation state. I say this because India is set to become the frontier for the next Cold War. (last time it was Pakistan's turn).
India's miscalculations and disorientation under Modi have affected India's global stance. The failed surgical strikes are also an example and now it the Ladakh fiasco.
I also dont expect the Kashmir problem to be solved if China is doing a small power show in Ladakh. Bajwa uncle is not thinking of invading Kashmir nor he is taking any advice from PDF. In order to change the status quo in Kashmir, huge political, economic and military factors need to be changed. For example: Situation in Kashmir cannot be changed for the will of the people living there (no one cares about people in International Relations) , however the following points can initiate change the status quo over Kashmir:
1) Water terrorism of India worsens and it becomes a matter of survival for Pakistan.
2) A civil war breaks in either India or Pakistan.
3) WWIII
4) China becomes a hyper-power and India becomes an extremely weak state (can't happen as India is weakened by a bad political setup and the disorientation is temporary)
The main point is that the skirmishes in Ladakh are just "tactical happenings". Just like the 27th February "happening". Such blunders are embarrassing but have little affect on future outcomes. Such events attract a lot of traffic over defence forums for trolling and memes (just look at this thread go on and on with utter garbage, point scoring), but you will seldom find a good analysis that assesses the situation from a neutral position that can help a normal person understand the situation and predict the coming future. I would want the moderators to be more generous with positive ratings and an option to show messages with positive rating in a thread. This will help clean out 95% of this thread.
The skirmishes in Ladakh show a weak Indian resolve to defend her territory. According to International law, India is entitled to build infrastructure on her side of the border, but when China thought that those projects were a threat to national security and the CPEC, Beijing initiated an offensive by justifying the offensive through technicalities in previous agreements.
The situation is favorable for Pakistan but in the long run,....I just hope that the Pak-China relation continues to be one based on mutual courtesy and respect. The last thing I want is Pakistan becoming a client state of China after the total collapse of India under Modi. (this is something, maybe, coming way into the future)
So in a nutshell, just enjoy this victory over India as CPEC is a bit safer, maybe. But at the same time I want PDFians to understand that the skirmish does not mean that its time to invade Kashmir from 2 sides. War cannot solve the Kashmir problem as there will be no one to enjoy the gains achieved from the war.
