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Asia & Pacific Rim ADS BY PULSE 360 AdChoices ISLAMABAD Days after Pakistan hinted that it possesses a sea-based
second nuclear strike capability, Indian Defence Ministry officials
remained silent on the matter, and outside observers were skeptical
that the Navy had such a capability. On May 19, the head of the Pakistan Navy, Adm. Asif Sandhila,
inaugurated the Headquarters of the Naval Strategic Force Command
(NSFC). A press release by the militarys Inter Services Public Relations
stated the NSFC will perform a pivotal role in development and
employment of the Naval Strategic Force, and was the custodian of
the nations 2nd strike capability. Beyond the announcement, Pakistans Navy has said little about the
office or about the services capabilities. In February, Sandhila told Defense News that the Pakistan Navy was
mindful of Indias plans to complete the sea-based arm of its nuclear
triad, and was taking necessary measures to restore the strategic
balance in the Indian Ocean region. Christian Le Mière, a research fellow for naval forces and maritime
security at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said
Pakistans sea-based deterrent is most likely the widely speculated
submarine-launched variant of the Babur/Hatf-7 (Vengeance-7) cruise
missile. The Babur is already nuclear-capable and is expected to be used on
submarines, he said. I have not seen verifiable evidence of any tests
for a submarine-launched version, but it is perfectly feasible that a
[submarine-launched cruise missile] is now available. Analyst Usman Shabbir, with the Pakistan Military Consortium think
tank, said Pakistan has been working on its sea-based deterrent for
some time. When the Babur was first revealed in 2005, it was claimed that it is
mainly designed to be deployed from submarines. There was at least
that speculation, he said. The Navy has pretty good experience in using similar systems; for
example, both submarine-launched Harpoon and Exocet [missiles] use
a similar system, and [the Navy] has operated both for a long time. Shabbir speculated that the Babur/Hatf-7 missiles might be fired from
torpedo tubes, similar to UGM-84 Harpoons. But Le Mière believes there may still be some room for doubt. The phrase sea-based second strike suggests a surface vessel could
also be used if a submarine-launched version is not yet ready, he said.
But obviously, while a surface vessel is mobile, it is far less survivable
and far more detectable than a sub. As for Pakistans neighbor to the east, Harsh Pant, international
relations lecturer at the Department of Defence Studies at Kings
College in London, said India is neither alarmed nor disadvantaged by
this development. India had factored this reality into its force posture much before this
acknowledgement, Pant said. I do not see this changing the ground
reality, insofar [as the] India-Pakistan nuclear posture is concerned.
Despite what outsiders might think, nuclear deterrence in South Asia
remains robust. The real problem remains the role of non-state actors, he added. In
that context, Pakistans sea-based second strike capability is more
reassuring, because the non-state actors will not have as easy access to
it as the land- or air-based one. He said, Indian policymakers should welcome this development, as it
removes the veil of secrecy over this issue. New Delhi analyst Nitin Mehta also cast doubt on Pakistans nuclear
maritime capability. It is unlikely that Pakistan has the capability to design and develop a
sea-based nuclear missile, since even China, which is known to be
helping Pakistan in its nuclear capabilities, does not possesses a
credible submarine-launched missile, he said. Pakistan could be
developing an undersea nuclear ballistic missile, but it cannot do it on
its own. Other analysts are not certain the Pakistan Navy can afford to
undertake the responsibility of the nations second-strike capability. Brian Cloughley, a former Australian defense attaché to Islamabad, said
the size of Pakistans submarine force is too small to carry out such a
task. Pakistans current submarine fleet is not adequate in numbers
[although well-trained] to be able to undertake detection and effective
interdiction of the Indian fleet, given its size which is increasing,
even if slowly, he said. Pakistan has two refurbished 1970s-era Agosta-70 and three 1990s-
era Agosta-90B subs. The latter are equipped with air independent
propulsion (AIP) or are in the process of being retrofitted with the AIP
module, and incrementally entered service beginning in 1999. Le Mière believes Pakistan could, at a stretch, maintain a constant
deterrent patrol. Once all the Agosta-90Bs are fitted with AIP, this should theoretically
allow for one submarine deployed for most of the time, with another
in refit and another in reserve, he said. In theory, this allows for
constant patrols, but in reality, problems with boats usually lead to
gaps if there is a three-boat fleet. Le Mière conceded, though, this would cause other problems. This would be the majority of the Pakistani fleet dedicated to nuclear
strike, or certainly dedicating a significant portion of its arsenal to
nuclear-tipped Baburs, he said. Hence, whether this second-strike
capability will in fact be deployed in a form of near-constant at-sea
deterrence is questionable until Pakistan is able to procure further
submarines to fill the conventional role, as well. Cloughley said the interdiction of Indias fleet must remain [the
Navys] first priority, and he considers conversion of the present
assets to take Babur not only costly, but a most regrettable diversion
of budget allocation. I would go so far as to say that, in present circumstances, it would be
a grave error if such a program were to go ahead, he added. Pakistan has a requirement for 12 to 14 subs to meet Navy expansion
plans. This would allow for a constant war patrol of at least one
deterrent-tasked submarine, leaving other submarines to carry out
more traditional tasks. However, Cloughley is still certain that Pakistan does not require such a
capability. [Pakistan] has plenty of nuclear-capable SSMs and strike aircraft, and
does not need a Navy-oriented second-strike capability, he said. Correspondent Vivek Raghuvanshi in New Delhi contributed to this
report
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This article was discussed here.
On pdf in detail...i cant post the link as i am on mobile.
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Goes to show that the world already knows and pakistan has already indicated that they are preparing a submarine based nuclear deterrant...