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Xinhua Insight: Chinese economy adjusting to "new normal"

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BEIJING, Aug. 1 (Xinhua) -- Jinjiang used to be a manufacturing boomtown, a place making shoes and garments for American and European supermarket shelves.

But these days, the city on China's southeast coast, like many of its manufacturing bases, is losing its edge because of rising wages and lack of product innovation.

"I'm considering moving to Bangladesh," said Lin Genghuang, a Jinjiang native who owns a shoe factory. "Business is barely holding up here."

Lin said the company's export volume is still climbing, but rising wages, the appreciation of the yuan and intense price competition are squeezing the already paper-thin profit margin.

After China's World Trade Organization accession in 2001, cheap labor has fueled its export boom and powered the economy to become the world's second largest. But China's manufacturing sector is running into problems these days: squeezed from one end by markets with even lower labor costs, such as Vietnam and Malaysia, and yet struggling to move to a higher value chain because of intensified competition from developed nations.

Some 3,000 km away from Jinjiang, in the northeastern city of Harbin, a deepening economic malaise is forcing companies to reinvent themselves to survive.

Harbin Boiler Company Ltd., a state-owned thermal power equipment manufacturer, is experiencing double blows -- the slowing economy and a national campaign to curb pollution and cut emissions.

With orders falling and profits shrinking, the company has no choice but to change, its president, Wang Dexing, said.

To improve competitiveness, the company is striving to develop new products, expand markets in emerging economies and tap into new businesses such as sea water desalination, nuclear power equipment and environmental protection.

This is a part of China's broader economic reality: Anemic economic momentum is driving the government to seek new sources of growth while forcing domestic and multinational companies to look for a Plan B.

Weighed by a property market downturn, cooling investment growth and unsteady demand both at home and abroad, China's economy has stumbled during the past two years and is widely expected to post its weakest growth in a quarter of a century this year.

Although growth is slowing, it is more balanced and sustainable -- a "new normal," as it is called by Chinese President Xi Jinping.

Under the "new normal," the importance of growth speed is eclipsed by immensely complex structural reforms going on to transform the economy to one that relies more on the services sector, domestic spending and innovation.

"The slowdown in China's economic growth means the government is making inroads with structural adjustments and policy efforts to address financial vulnerabilities," according to a World Bank report. In the medium term, these efforts are helping China gradually shift its growth model from manufacturing to services, from investment to consumption, and from exports to domestic spending.

The government has put in place policies to contain fast expansion in credit growth, regulate borrowing by local governments and eliminate industrial overcapacity, which help lower investment in sectors such as real estate. At the same time, it has tried to put a floor on the slowdown, with limited but targeted support measures.

Despite a stock market rout and mounting economic headwinds, the Chinese economy is holding steady and showing signs of a shift, albeit slowly, with consumption and the services sector gradually taking over as main drivers of growth.

"China's economy is functioning well in general, with some problems remaining that require the wisdom of all and solid efforts," President Xi said.

At a Thursday meeting, chaired by Xi, China's top decision-making body said the central government would take "effective measures" to nurture the steady growth of consumption, investment and exports, key engines of growth, while stepping up "targeted policies" to counter downward pressure.
 
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Why the real Chinese economy is more important than the stock market


China’s stock market has been on a roller-coaster ride over the past year. It more than doubled in value in the 12 months ending on June 12. Then it took a breathtaking plunge, wiping out a third of its value (more than $3 trillion of wealth) within a few weeks. After an extraordinary government intervention, it stabilized and bounced back 12 percent. No one knows where it will go next. If you do, you should be living on your own private island.

Financial markets everywhere are prone to bubbles, and this may just have been China’s turn. But it is also likely that the boom-bust cycle was exacerbated by real reform lagging financial reform.

Wanted: New engines of growth
For a long time, China’s economy grew well based on exports and investment. Both of these engines of growth are running out of steam. As the largest exporting nation in the world, China cannot expect its exports to grow much faster than world trade. Export growth of 2.1 percent year-on-year in June is about what China can expect going forward. On the investment side, China’s credit-fueled expansion has led to over-capacity throughout the economy. An estimated one-fifth of apartments are empty. Heavy industries such as steel and cement operate at low capacity. And while infrastructure throughout China is impressive, the most recent construction of highways and airports is poorly utilized.

China needs new sources of dynamism, and an obvious place to look is in the remaining sectors of the economy that are heavily protected. In China’s dualistic economy, manufacturing sectors are relatively open to foreign investment and trade. And these sectors have become highly competitive: China really is the factory of the world. But there is little room for those sectors to expand rapidly because exports are constrained and investment yields diminishing returns.

China has reached a stage of development at which modern services naturally take over as the growth engine—as countries get richer, more and more consumption consists of the output of the service industries. These are exactly the industries that are protected and uncompetitive in China: telecommunications, media, airlines, logistics, financial services, health, and education. Among G20 countries, China is the most closed to foreign investment in these sectors.

Another issue for the modern service sectors is China’s household registration system, which limits labor mobility. The system has allowed large numbers of unskilled rural workers to move to cities to work in factories—typically living in dormitories, unable to bring their families and become urban citizens. Service sectors of course generate some unskilled jobs as well, but they depend very much on high-skilled labor. The lack of a national labor market in which people can easily move to their most productive opportunities holds back productivity growth in general and is particularly harmful to modern services.

Put the real economy first
The new leadership under Xi Jinping announced a series of reforms that include opening up the service sectors and gradually dismantling the registration system. But progress on these reforms of the real economy has been painfully slow.

Meanwhile, financial reform can potentially complement these other changes. For a long time, China’s low, controlled interest rates acted like a tax on household savers and a subsidy to industrial investment. Heavy controls on stock and bond markets ensured that they played a minor role in allocating capital. Reforms of China’s financial markets in the past two years have been quite rapid: Interest rates have been decontrolled; there is some scope for private banking; firms can more easily access capital markets; and margin trading for stocks has been introduced.

These reforms contributed to an environment in which a stock market bubble was possible. However, the financial reforms have not been adequately complemented by real sector reforms that would allow for the expansion of more healthy companies into the economy—both domestic private firms and foreign-invested ones.

In the short run, the connection between the stock market and the real economy is not necessarily tight. Even with thorough reform, China might still have had a bubble. But in the long run, the development of a diversified group of healthy companies is needed both for real growth and for the sustainable expansion of the stock market. As the stock market was plunging over the past few weeks, the government moved away from market-based reforms and relied on direct controls—such as banning major shareholders from selling shares for six month and allowing more than half of listed firms to suspend trading.

The important question now is whether this unsettling experience will make the leadership even more cautious about the real sector reforms that the economy needs, or whether they will recognize that China’s growth needs a new model and accelerate reform. My advice to the leadership is to focus on the real economy. If it grows well, then the market will find its level and take care of itself.


Why the real Chinese economy is more important than the stock market | Brookings Institution
 
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Its good Chinese economic recover, Vietnam will be able to sell more bananas, monkies army sun wukong at fire miutain need a lot bananas there. More bananas mean more enegry for the monkies in here jumping, with out the monkies no more fun.:D

Ah forgot we need to export bananas to Cambodia too, monkies there are acting strange lately.:D
 
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Its good Chinese economic recover, Vietnam will be able to sell more bananas, monkies army sun wukong at fire miutain need a lot bananas there. More bananas mean more enegry for the monkies in here jumping, with out the monkies no more fun.:D

Ah forgot we need to export bananas to Cambodia too, monkies there are acting strange lately.:D
Good for your banana republic country!:victory:
 
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Good to see China's economy in another rapid growth era.
 
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